With Verizon Wireless poised to launch 4G LTE service in Alaska for the first time, Alaska Communications (ACS) and AT&T are hurrying wireless broadband expansions to protect their market turf. But Wall Street investors are unhappy, especially with ACS’ investments in its landline network and the recently announced suspension of its dividend payout. Some are now asking whether ACS’ lucrative wireless business should be up for sale, primed for a buyout by AT&T or Verizon Wireless.

Alaska Communications has soft launched its LTE 4G service in 10 cities: Anchorage, Fairbanks, Homer, Juneau, Kenai, Palmer, Seward, Soldotna, Wasilla and Whittier.

AT&T operates a mix of LTE and slower HSPA+ networks in Alaska and is expanding 4G service to Prudhoe Bay and Deadhorse for the benefit of short-term oil company employees working on the North Slope. But the company is also still expanding its existing 3G network along more remote Alaskan highways.

They are coming.

The investment frenzy is seen by many as a defensive maneuver to keep existing customers happy before Verizon Wireless arrives in Alaska sometime next year.

ACS and GCI, Alaska’s homegrown phone and cable companies now jointly operate their wireless operation together. AT&T is their principle competitor. But Verizon Wireless’ impending arrival in Alaska has shown it is no shrinking violet. There are persistent rumors Verizon is trying to acquire ACS’ wireless operations. Verizon has also announced partnerships with Copper Valley Telecom and Matanuska Telephone Association to potentially expand LTE service in those communities as well.

Investors hope ACS considers any Verizon offer carefully. Wireless is a revenue center for the landline phone company, which continues to see declines in home phone and business customers.

Since June, ACS lost just shy of 2,000 residential landlines and 753 business lines. The company still has 57,000 residential customers and 81,000 business customers.

ACS faces the same problems other phone companies do: network upgrades require significant investments, and investors question whether it will ultimately pay off. Many are also unhappy ACS suspended its dividend payout, refocusing $8 million on debt payments.

CenturyLink CEO Glenn Post does not think much about AT&T’s plans to shift its most rural landline customers to wireless in its efforts to decommission traditional landline service.

“From a regulatory standpoint, that could be a tough go,” Post explained to Wall Street investors on a conference call last week. “There may be some areas that will have better service with wireless in some ways. As far as a competitive threat, we don’t see that being a real issue for us because just the bandwidth requirements and the limited wireless access or capability in a lot of areas.”

CenturyLink, one of four large independent phone companies and owner of former Baby Bell Qwest, is doubling down on its wired infrastructure to reach customers. The company recently announced Phoenix would be the latest city to get its fiber-to-the-neighborhood service Prism TV — the first legacy Qwest market to get IPTV service from CenturyLink. The service soft-launches in Phoenix this month, with a second city in the region or Pacific Northwest slated to get Prism sometime next year.

The company has spent much of 2012 investing in broadband, managed hosting and cloud computing for business customers, and fiber expansion to reach more than 15,000 cell towers across CenturyLink’s national service area, depicted in green on the accompanying map.

But CenturyLink executives stress their investments are “strategic” — made in areas that are most likely to deliver quick returns for the company.

While CenturyLink spends money to secure video franchising agreements in metro Denver and Colorado Springs for Prism TV service, it is moving at “a snail’s pace” to deliver broadband service in northeastern North Carolina’s Northampton County. County officials there anticipate CenturyLink will take years to deploy basic DSL service to communities outside and around Conway and Gaston.

The broadband problem in income-challenged parts of North Carolina illustrate the conundrum for county officials, who have to advocate for broadband improvement while combating misleading broadband maps that suggest access is not a problem in the state.

Donna Sullivan with the Department of Commerce notes that broadband maps in states like North Carolina have a census block granularity which does not always reveal the true picture of broadband availability.

“That means if one household in that census block can receive broadband services, the entire census block is considered covered—even though there very well may be households who cannot receive broadband to that location,” she told the Roanoke-Chowan News-Herald.

Northampton County, N.C.

CenturyLink is in no hurry to expand broadband to the 1,921 households in the county of 22,000 who cannot buy broadband service at any price.

Derek Kelly, a CenturyLink spokesman, said the company is working to expand broadband services in the region, but noted the costs to lay down a fiber network to help reach the unserved is “one of the largest costs.”

That cost is much less of a problem if the customer at the end of the line happens to be a wireless company like Verizon or AT&T.

Company officials admit they are spending enormous sums “investing in fiber builds to as many [cell] towers in our service area as economically feasible.” In the third quarter alone, more than 1,000 cell towers received fiber upgrades for a total of 3,300 so far this year. The company hopes to reach 4,000-4,500 cell towers by New Year’s Eve.

The reason why CenturyLink chases wireless business while allowing rural and income-challenged service areas to go without broadband is a simple matter of economics. Cell phone companies sign lucrative, multi-year contracts for fiber connectivity to cell towers to support forthcoming 4G service. In contrast, CenturyLink was surprised to find an astounding 94 percent of families with children in Northampton are qualified for the company’s special Lifeline Program which delivers slow speed, discounted broadband service for families on public assistance.

Post

For CenturyLink’s more urban and prosperous service areas, the news for broadband service improvements is better.

As CenturyLink continues to extend its middle mile fiber network, broadband speeds are gradually improving.

Over 70 percent of CenturyLink customers can receive at least 6Mbps DSL service, more than 57% can receive at least 10Mbps and 29% can access the Internet at 20Mbps speeds or better, according to Post.

But the more urban and prosperous a service area is, the greater the chance a cable competitor has successfully poached many of CenturyLink’s DSL customers with the promise of better speed.

Post said he recognizes the company must do better to remain competitive.

“We’re shooting for 20-25Mbps for a very large percentage of our areas,” Post said. “But with [pair] bonding, we can virtually double the broadband capacity and speeds in our markets. We’re already doing bonding in a number of markets today. So where we have 20Mbps, we could have 40Mbps.”

CenturyLink’s fiber to the neighborhood network, essential where it plans to roll out Prism TV, can also support faster broadband speeds if a customer wants broadband alone and does not care about television service.

Nationwide, the company added 10,000 Prism TV subscribers in the third quarter and has a total customer base of around 104,000 subscribers. But that represents a penetration rate of just over 10%, hardly noticed by still-dominant cable operators.

CenturyLink executives were asked to comment on AT&T’s strategic plan to transform their landline network announced last week in New York. Post found little in common between CenturyLink and AT&T’s vision for the future and does not think the company has to respond to AT&T’s attempt to redefine rural America as wireless territory.

“We don’t see that as a major investment for us or a major risk at this point.”

AT&T will spend $14 billion on its wireless and wired broadband networks in an effort to improve service for its urban and suburban customers, while preparing to argue its case for disbanding parts of the century-old landline network.

In a major 90-minute presentation with most of AT&T’s top executives on stage, the company announced its intention to move away from traditional landline service and towards a combination of an enhanced broadband platform and 4G LTE wireless access, especially in the 22 states where it currently delivers landline service.

The investment plan — Project Velocity — is a pivotal moment for AT&T, which has seen deteriorating revenue from its aging rural landline network and has focused most of its investments in recent years on its increasingly profitable wireless network.

But AT&T also hoped to hang on to the enormous revenue it still earns providing traditional home phone service. Its early answer for landline cord cutting came in 2006 with U-verse, an IP-based network platform on which AT&T can sell video, voice, and broadband service with a minimum of regulatory oversight. U-verse succeeded attracting high-paying customers who either stayed with or returned to AT&T. But now company officials hope U-verse can help the company achieve victory in its next public policy fight: to abandon traditional landline service altogether.

That emerging battle is likely to pit urban and suburban customers enjoying enhanced U-verse service against rural AT&T customers deemed unsuitable for wired broadband. AT&T is seeking to decommission up to 25% of its rural landline network as part of the strategy announced today, shifting affected customers to its 4G LTE wireless voice and broadband service, which comes at a higher cost and includes draconian usage caps.

Critics contend such a move could leave AT&T largely unregulated with monopoly control over its networks, with few service requirements or access concessions for competitors. It would also leave rural customers relegated to a wireless Internet future, perhaps permanently.

Landline/Wired Broadband: Good News for Some, Scary News for Rural America

AT&T plans to expand and enhance its broadband network to 57 million consumers and small businesses across its 22-state operating area, reaching 75 percent of customers by the end of 2015. AT&T will operate three broadband networks going forward, while gradually decommission its existing ADSL network.

• U-verse: AT&T’s triple play package of TV, Internet, and Voice over IP phone will be expanded by more than a third to reach an additional 8.5 million customers by the end of 2015. This will make U-verse available to 33 million customers in AT&T home phone service areas. Most of the expansion will be in urban and suburban areas bypassed during the initial U-verse construction phase. To remain competitive, AT&T will also increase available broadband speeds for existing customers up to 75Mbps;
• U-verse IPDSLAM: An additional 24 million customers will be offered a combo voice-broadband package that could be called “U-verse Lite.” It will offer speeds up to 45Mbps and is primarily intended as a replacement for the company’s DSL service in exurban and semi-rural areas. Arrives by the end of 2013;
• Fiber to Multi-Tenant Business Buildings: AT&T plans to expand its fiber network to reach more commercial buildings, but also lay the foundation to use these facilities for future distributed antenna systems and small cell technology that will create mini-cell sites serving individual neighborhoods, cutting down the demand on existing cell towers.

Customers living in rural, open country in AT&T service areas in states like Texas, northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and Kentucky, central and northern California and Michigan, and the rural areas of the Carolinas may eventually find themselves using AT&T’s wireless network as the company seeks to decommission its landline infrastructure.

A number of AT&T customers living in areas shown in red may see red if and when AT&T begins trying to force rural Americans to its more profitable wireless networks.

But AT&T officials also admitted in a Wall Street Q & A session that the company planned nothing special for rural landline customers transitioned to wireless. Those customers will be sharing service with traditional mobile customers. If AT&T’s service plan resembles that of Verizon, customers will pay around $60 a month and limited to just 10GB of usage per month. If AT&T decommissions its existing landline infrastructure, no other wired provider is likely to take its place.

Most remaining regulations enforcing a level playing field for telecommunications networks remain with legacy copper-wire landline Plain Old Telephone Service. AT&T’s plan would effectively banish that network in its entirety through a series of regulatory and service-transition maneuvers:

• U-verse customers actually no longer have traditional landline service. U-verse offers barely regulated Voice over IP service, free from most state regulations and pricing oversight;
• U-verse IPDSLAM customers will also quietly forfeit their traditional landlines. This product works over an IP network, which means telephone service is Voice over IP;
• Wireless service is already barely regulated and not subject to price oversight or universal service requirements that landline providers must meet to deliver service to all Americans.

AT&T proves you have to spend money on network upgrades to make money from customers purchasing the enhanced services they offer.

4G LTE Mobile Broadband: 99% Coverage Across 22 AT&T Landline States, Up to 300 Million Americans Served by the End of 2014

The majority of AT&T’s planned investment in its network will once again go to its highly profitable wireless division. At least $8 billion will be spent on bolstering AT&T’s 4G LTE wireless coverage area, especially in rural sections across its 22 state landline service area. That investment is necessary if AT&T hopes to win approval to decommission traditional landline service for rural customers.

• 4G LTE Expansion: AT&T plans to expand its 4G LTE network to cover 300 million people in the United States by year-end 2014, up from its current plans to deploy 4G LTE to about 250 million people by year-end 2013. In AT&T’s 22-state wireline service area, the company expects its 4G LTE network will cover 99 percent of all customer locations;
• Spectrum: AT&T continues its acquisition binge with more than 40 spectrum deals so far this year. AT&T’s biggest win of the year was approval for new WCS spectrum it will occupy alongside satellite radio. AT&T will have accumulated 118MHz of spectrum nationwide.
• Small Cell Networks: AT&T has already aggressively deployed a large number of Wi-Fi hotspots to encourage customers to shift traffic off its traditional wireless network. The next priority will be deployment of small cell technology, macro cells, and distributed antenna systems that can offer neighborhood-sized cell sites to serve urban and suburban customers and high density traffic areas like shopping malls and entertainment venues.

AT&T’s wireless 4G LTE upgrades will cover 99% of the service areas where the company provides landline service. It has to offer blanket coverage if it hopes to win approval for decommissioning its current legacy landline network in rural America.

Using New Infrastructure to Drive New Business and Even Higher Revenue

AT&T would have had a hard time selling its planned investments to Wall Street without the promise of new revenue opportunities. AT&T’s new network enhancements will support a range of new services the company hopes to introduce to win greater revenue in the future:

• AT&T Digital Life: A nationwide all IP-based home security and automation service set to launch in 2013 that will let consumers manage their home from virtually any device — smartphone, tablet or PC.
• Mobile Premise Solutions: This new nationwide service, available today, is an alternative for wireline voice service and in the future will include high-speed IP Internet data services.
• Mobile Wallet: AT&T is participating in the ISIS mobile wallet joint venture. Market trials are underway in Austin, Tex. and Salt Lake City today.
• Connected Car: More than half of new vehicles are expected to be wirelessly connected by 2016. AT&T is positioned to expand from vehicle diagnostics and real time traffic updates to consumer applications that tie into retail wireless subscriber data plans. AT&T already has deals with leading manufacturers such as Ford, Nissan and BMW.

AT&T’s 2012 Investor Conference introduced major transformative changes for AT&T’s wired and wireless broadband networks.  (2 hours, 9 minutes)

Extensive flooding caused by Hurricane Sandy swamped the ground floor of Verizon’s headquarters at 140 West St. in lower Manhattan.

Verizon Communications, the largest telecommunications company in the northeast, has been trying to assess the widespread damage to its wireline, fiber, and wireless networks but remains hampered by major damage to its own operations centers and leftover flooding in coastal areas.

Verizon’s headquarters in lower Manhattan on West Street had several feet of water on the ground floor Monday night. At noon today, Verizon called conditions below 39th Street in lower Manhattan “bleak” because of flooding. Verizon’s network technical facilities received extensive damage in the area, and some facilities had water high enough in basements to damage backup power equipment. The company spent the last day just pumping flood water out of their facilities in the area and is now bringing in new generators to power buildings and restore service.

The venerable landline, now considered a relic by a growing number of Americans, may prove to be the hardy survivor of Hurricane Sandy, holding up well in areas upstate and in parts of New York City where spotty cell service has left residents doing the unthinkable – lining up in front of working pay phones.

With cell phone batteries all but dead and power restoration likely to take days if not weeks, Verizon’s self-powered landlines that survived the storm are holding up, even if customers’ memories are not.

“The good news is the payphones that are still left are working, the bad news is who can remember anyone’s phone number anymore?” says Stop the Cap! reader Richard, who has been without power since Monday night. “Cell phone contact lists don’t help much until you can recharge your phone.”

Several New Yorkers are joining Richard looking for community centers and public libraries with working electrical outlets to recharge cell phones while catching up with e-mail on computer terminals that still have Internet access. Some boroughs remain virtually cut off from the rest of New York with roads, tunnels, bridges and public transport only gradually reopening on a limited basis.

Verizon called conditions south of the Garment District in lower Manhattan “bleak.”

Verizon’s Satellite Solutions Group is sending several emergency mobile communications vehicles to New Jersey and New York this evening to provide communications services to the impacted region. The disaster recovery fleet is completely self-contained and does not require any commercial power to operate. The mobile vehicles offer voice, data and Internet connectivity as well as charging capabilities for mobile devices.

“Sandy has left a trail of destruction throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with historic flooding in New York and New Jersey and a hurricane-fueled snowstorm in southwest Virginia and western Maryland,” said Bob Mudge, president of Verizon’s consumer and mass business division.  “We are asking the public to remain focused on staying safe as there may be dangerous conditions such as fallen trees or power lines.  Our dedicated employees – from technicians to customer service consultants – run to a crisis and will continue to do what it takes to put customers back in touch.”

For that to happen, Verizon is waiting for electric utilities to get service back up and running. The company suspects most of its problems are related to electric service interruptions that will resolve once power is restored. But in lower Manhattan and along the coastline, more significant damage is likely to take longer to repair.

Verizon facilities in lower Manhattan, Queens and Long Island have received major damage from severe flooding, interrupting commercial power and rendering backup power systems inoperable.  In some cases, Verizon teams have not been able to access the sites, due to flooding and safety concerns.

As battery backup and generated power fails, additional central offices could lose service until Verizon crews can reach those facilities. Where flood waters have wreaked havoc with Verizon’s equipment, it could take a week or more to restore service. In such cases, it’s crucial to consider hiring a water damage restoration service to expedite the recovery process. For detailed information on water damage restoration, please see page.

Verizon Wireless service is reportedly in better shape, with 94% of cell sites still working, according to the company.

But with heavy call volumes and interruptions to Verizon’s backhaul connections which connect cell towers to Verizon’s network, having good reception is no guarantee customers will be able to complete calls or receive them.

Many New Yorkers report outgoing calls go nowhere and incoming calls go straight to voicemail, even with phones powered on.

Other Verizon notifications affecting customers across the northeast:

“All circuits are busy” or “Your call cannot be completed at this time”

Some Verizon customers in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast region of the U.S. may receive a message of “All circuits are busy” or “Your call cannot be completed at this time” when trying to make a call. This is due to an unusually large volume of calls in the network as a result of Hurricane Sandy. Our engineers are working to accommodate this additional call volume. We apologize for any inconvenience this has caused.

Shipment Delays

As storm related transportation disruptions clear, Verizon customers will begin to receive shipments of routers, set top boxes and cabling. However, there may continue to be delays in completing deliveries due to road conditions. We will continue to process orders and ship equipment to our customers as quickly as possible.

Need to Report An Electric Outage or Check on the Status of Repairs in Your Area?

Frontier Communications is targeting promotional offers to customers that have been impacted by cable service outages and rate hikes, despite having a relatively poor service record itself.

Frontier president and chief operating officer Dan McCarthy told investors attending the recent Goldman Sachs Communicopia Conference the company was pulling out all the stops looking for surgical marketing opportunities.

“People don’t wake up every day, and say, ‘I want to switch broadband providers.’ It’s really about finding what is that lever to pull. Sometimes it’s a message at a key point — it could be during an outage, it could be during change of prices for them. It could be there are some substandard speeds that are being offered,” McCarthy said. “We are looking at what is the right mix of messaging and promotional offers that really allow us to do that. I think you’ll see us be pretty aggressive in that area,” he added.

But Frontier itself has had plenty of service problems, and was the only major Internet provider in the country to have lost ground in a July FCC report measuring broadband quality. The company continues to face extensive service outages when fiber cables are cut or copper wiring is stolen by thieves. Recent storms this past summer disrupted 277 Frontier central offices in the Carolinas, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. The repair work, including overtime and equipment, is expected to cost the company at least $15 million.

Frontier reports it expected to replace at least 167,000 feet of damaged or stolen copper cable and purchased 203,000 backup power generators to keep central exchanges up and running during extended electric outages.

This week, a major service outage struck customers in parts of Ft. Wayne, Ind. after an accident severed an important cable.

A number of customers in Frontier service areas have already disconnected their landlines with the company, but where cable companies do not provide service, Frontier reports it is having success selling a standalone DSL product it dubs, “Simply Broadband.”

“We are seeing success in attracting and retaining customers with this product and it is having a positive impact on our Q3 residential customer counts,” Frontier reports in an SEC filing.

Frontier has also recently announced speed boosts in several states that can deliver up to 25Mbps DSL service to certain customers.