AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson is kicking himself over his decision to allow “unlimited use” plans on AT&T’s wireless network.

Speaking at the Milken Institute’s Global Conference last Wednesday, Stephenson took the audience on a journey through AT&T’s transformation from a landline provider into a company that today sees wireless as the source of the majority of its revenue and future growth.  But the company left a lot of revenue on the table when it offered “unlimited data” for smartphone customers, particularly those using Apple’s iPhone.  It’s a mistake Stephenson wishes he never made.

“My only regret was how we introduced pricing in the beginning… thirty dollars and you get all you can eat and it’s a variable cost model,” Stephenson complained. “Every additional megabyte you use in this network, I have to invest capital. So get the pricing right. Our average revenue [per customer] has been increasing every single quarter since we started down this path.”

Stephenson admitted AT&T’s problems were created by the company itself when it embraced its transformation into a wireless power player.

Years earlier, the current CEO green-lit a new “smartphone” after a visit from Apple proposing a new device that used a touch screen to make calls, launch applications, and surf the wireless web.  It was called the iPhone.

AT&T’s first iPhone, Stephenson said, was not a major problem for AT&T and did not even launch on the company’s growing 3G network. In 2007, the Apple iPhone came pre-loaded with a selection of apps and used AT&T 2G network to move data.  Stephenson said Apple’s launch of a new iPhone in 2008 that worked on AT&T’s 3G network, along with a new App Store that allowed customers to do more with their phones, changed everything.  By 2009, AT&T’s network was overloaded with data traffic in many areas.

“[There] were volumes [of traffic] that nobody had ever anticipated and we had anticipated big volumes of growth,” Stephenson said.

In Stephenson’s view, AT&T’s solution to the traffic problem early on should have been a change to the pricing model, eliminating flat rate service at the first sign of network congestion.

“I wish we had moved quicker to change the pricing model to make sure that people that were consuming the bandwidth were paying for the bandwidth and [instead] we had a model where the high end users were being subsidized by the low end users,” he said.

Stephenson acknowledged the company has service issues in large American cities like New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, and blames them on a combination of voracious wireless data usage and spectrum shortages.  However, industry observers also note that many of AT&T’s service woes may have come from an unwillingness to invest in sufficient network upgrades as aggressively as other carriers, which have not experienced the same level of network congestion and the resulting steep declines in customer satisfaction AT&T has endured for the last three years.

But the ongoing congestion problems have not hurt AT&T’s revenue and profits.  Stephenson admitted that in 2006, AT&T earned almost nothing from wireless data and made between 30-32% margin selling voice and texting service.

“Today, we’re a $20 billion data revenue company and we’re operating at 41-42% margins,” Stephenson said.

Despite that improved revenue, AT&T says if they don’t get spectrum relief soon, they are going to keep raising prices on consumers. Stephenson said the company has been increasing prices across the board on data plans, new smartphone ownership, those upgrading phones, as well as reducing certain benefits for long-term customers. Stephenson said these actions were taken because spectrum has become a precious resource and bandwidth scarcity requires the company to tamp down on demand.  But that’s not a message he delivers to Wall Street, telling investors AT&T’s key earnings and increased revenue come from price adjustments and metering data usage.

Stephenson also fretted there is too much competition in America’s wireless marketplace.  That competition is eating up all of the available wireless spectrum, threatening to create a spectrum crisis if the federal government does not rethink spectrum allocation policies, he argued.  Stephenson believes additional industry consolidation is inevitable because of the capital costs associated with network construction and upgrades. He said he was uncertain whether AT&T will be able to participate in that consolidation after failing to win approval of its buyout of T-Mobile USA.

Stephenson believes the days of heavy investment in wired networks are over. Stephenson has systematically sought to transition AT&T away from prioritizing wired services in favor of wireless, a position he has maintained since his earliest days as AT&T’s CEO. The company’s decision to end expansion of U-verse — AT&T’s fiber-to-the-neighborhood service, and concentrate investment on wireless is part of Stephenson’s grand vision of a wireless America.  Stephenson noted the real fiber revolution isn’t provisioning fiber to the home, it’s wiring fiber to cell towers to support higher data traffic.

But that traffic doesn’t come to users free. Instead, Stephenson believes leaving the meter on guarantees lower rates of congestion because it makes customers think about what they are doing with their phones. It also brings higher profits for AT&T by charging customers for network traffic.  Stephenson believes that assures the returns Wall Street investors demand, attracting capital to front network investments.

With that in mind, Stephenson still believes AT&T can help solve the data digital divide, where poor families cannot afford to participate in the online revolution. Stephenson said it can be managed by handing the disadvantaged sub-$100 smartphones and $20 data plans, assuming they can afford those prices.

What keeps Stephenson up nights?  Worrying about business model busters that manage end-runs around AT&T’s profitable wireless services.

“Apple iMessage is a classic example,” Stephenson noted. “If you’re using iMessage, you’re not using one of our messaging services, right? That’s disruptive to our messaging revenue stream.”

Stephenson remains fearful its network upgrades will improve wireless data service enough to allow customers to switch to Skype for voice and video calling, depriving AT&T of voice revenue.

But the CEO seems less concerned than some of his predecessors that content producers are enjoying “free rides” on AT&T’s network.

“We in this industry have spent more time bemoaning the thought that Google or Facebook may use our network for free, and it just hasn’t played out that way,” Stephenson said. “I mean they do use it for free, they’re getting a bargain, and that is fine.”

“I believe what will play itself out over time, is that the demand model will change this behavior,” he said. “We’re already at a place where some companies that deliver content are coming to us and saying ‘we would like to do a deal with you where you would give us a class of service to deliver our content to your customers.'”

“The content guys that have been so loud about these issues [Net Neutrality] are now the ones coming to us saying we want these models,” Stephenson argued. “I’ve always believed that is what would play out.”

[flv width=”640″ height=”500″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Global Conference 2012 A Conversation With ATT’s Randall Stephenson 5-1-12.flv[/flv]

Stop the Cap! edited down Randall Stephenson’s appearance at last Wednesday’s conference.  Stephenson faces few challenges as he presents his world-view about AT&T pricing, spectrum allocation policies, network investments vs. data traffic growth, his vision for AT&T’s future, and how much customers will be forced to pay for today’s “spectrum crisis.”  (28 minutes)

Joe Roget has one word for South Carolina’s Broadband Availability Map: “nuts.”

The 72 year old resident of a small town in South Carolina was excited to read a new statewide broadband availability map showed his street was currently getting DSL service from one of South Carolina’s largest phone companies.  But that was news to AT&T, who provides landline phone service.

“They said they had no idea what I was talking about and that whatever map data I was looking at was totally wrong,” Roget reports to Stop the Cap! “The operator was frank with me, saying it was highly unlikely I would ever receive DSL from AT&T and the company was really not expanding DSL access any longer.”

Karen, a Stop the Cap! reader near Denmark, S.C., reported a similar story.

“The broadband map Connect South Carolina has gotten a government grant to produce is total fiction in my area and is little more than cable and phone company wishful thinking,” Karen reports.

Karen says not only does her street show DSL as readily available, but cable broadband as well.  Karen and her neighbors can get neither.

“‘Never have, never will’ seems to be the attitude unless we pay $20,000 to the cable company to extend wiring down the street,” Karen says. “The phone company doesn’t have time to even consider that, but their call center is nowhere near South Carolina so those people don’t care.”

Roget wonders exactly how Connect South Carolina, a chapter of the industry-connected Connected Nation group, got their data.

The answer: it largely collects it from the data providers volunteer themselves.

“Did anyone ever bother to use some of the millions of taxpayer dollars this group got to actually verify what the cable and phone companies handed out to make sure it was real?” Roget asks.

Darryl Coffey, an engineering consultant for the group, says he spends countless hours trying to verify the data providers submit to the group.

In South Carolina, I verify each of these platforms by going out into the field with tools, test equipment and data.  We refer to this process as “provider validation.”

Provider validation involves driving hundreds of miles following telephone and cable lines, or testing wireless signals in neighborhoods as well as in remote areas.

“I have basic phone service at my home, and I don’t know how Mr. Coffey can follow a phone line to determine if it also can provide me with DSL,” Roget says. “I could tell him, or anyone else at Connected South Carolina, it most certainly does not — had they asked.”

Roget is also upset that South Carolina’s legislature is interested in preventing local communities from deploying their own broadband networks to fill in the gaps where large telecommunications companies refuse to provide service. Only he wonders exactly how legislators will know there is a broadband gap if the group drawing the maps, based on what providers tell them, shows there isn’t a problem.

“What a scam,” Roget concludes. “An industry-backed group draws maps of data volunteered by the providers themselves that legislators use to prove there is no broadband problem in South Carolina and no need for towns and cities to build their own service.”

Karen has virtually given up on South Carolina officials representing the interests of South Carolina’s citizens.

“They look out for the companies, not the people,” Karen says. “It seems if we want better broadband, we will have to move somewhere else, preferably someplace that isn’t dumb or corrupt enough to let the broadband industry control our broadband future.”

Highlights:

• Company still losing video customers, but picking up phone customers (on the cheap), and winning with broadband;
• Broadband consumption pricing still CEO’s favorite flavor of Internet billing, but only for other people’s content;
• Broadband speed matters, as Time Warner continues to win over dissatisfied DSL customers;
• ‘If customers love our broadband, we can charge more for it;’
• Verizon/Time Warner’s cooperative marketing agreement starts with discounts but ends with “exclusive product enhancements.”
• The future of Time Warner Cable Wi-Fi.

Time Warner Cable reported unexpectedly strong profits in its first quarter as the company’s broadband services helped stem the losses from departing cable TV customers.

The cable operator told investors it boosted profits 18%, mostly from increasing revenue the company earns selling broadband access to the Internet and convincing customers to add more Time Warner services.

Time Warner Cable said goodbye to 94,000 residential video subscribers last quarter, higher than analysts expected. But that did little damage to earnings because the company picked up an additional 214,000 broadband customers over the same period, most switching from phone company DSL service.

Time Warner Cable’s increasingly aggressive bundled service promotions, particularly on its triple-play offer of cable, broadband, and phone service, even managed to attract 112,000 new landline customers — a significant accomplishment as Americans continue to disconnect traditional phone lines in favor of cell phones.  It also helped increase the average revenue earned per subscriber.  Time Warner Cable pitches double play promotions as low as $79.00 a month. For just $10 a month more, customers can add a third service, and many do.

Most discounts last for one year, but the operator now often sends letters to customers reaching the end of their promotion offering additional, but lower-value discounts going forward. This has limited bill shock for customers surprised by the company’s regular prices. It also might reduce the urge for customers to shop around for a better deal.

Judging from the company’s financial results, most customers hang on to Time Warner Cable’s broadband regardless of price, if the competition happens to be traditional DSL from the phone company. In fact, as phone and cable companies realize they have sold broadband to virtually every home in their service area that wants it, growth in subscriber numbers going forward largely depends on poaching customers from someone else.  Nobody makes that easier than phone companies trying to sell customers DSL with speeds under 10Mbps.  According to CEO Glenn Britt, Time Warner Cable picked up more new broadband customers than Verizon and AT&T combined.

Time Warner Cable broadband speeds give headaches to phone companies trying to sell traditional DSL.

While phone companies continue to argue that speeds don’t matter (at least for their DSL product line), Time Warner believes otherwise and apparently so do their new customers.  The company reports that almost two-thirds of those dumping DSL said their old service was too slow.

Much of the company’s growth in broadband revenue is also coming from the high end, as customers increasingly gravitate towards faster broadband speed tiers.

Britt

Residential DOCSIS 3 (Extreme/Ultimate) customers increased 50% to 218,000, and almost 66% of new broadband customers signed up for either Turbo (20Mbps), Extreme (30Mbps) or Ultimate (50Mbps) service.  Together, these customers now make up 20% of Time Warner’s broadband subscribers, up from less than 16% a year earlier.

Customers are willing to pay higher prices for faster service, a point not lost on Britt, who noted that once customers perceive broadband has more and more value, the company can charge more for it over time.

If Britt’s steadfast belief in Internet Overcharging-consumption billing schemes holds true, some customers might find they are charged substantially more if the company decided to discontinue offering unlimited Internet service.

For now, the company plans to continue its experiments in consumption billing through its Internet Essentials program, now testing in South Texas, which limits customers to 5GB of usage per month before overlimit fees kick in.  But going forward:

“I think we’ve been pretty clear about this, we do think over time, there will be consumption element to the tiers,” Britt said.

But Britt says he wants to keep unlimited access for customers willing to pay for it.

Time Warner's Hotspots in southern California.

“We retained our unlimited tier with no cap (I actually don’t like the term cap),” Britt added. “And I think we should always have that. So that this was not in any way coercive, people who wanted to save money, could. People who wanted to keep what they had have kept it, and they still have unlimited. So our plan is to roll that out further across [the country] as the year goes on.”

Britt noted the company’s own streamed video products would not drain customers’ usage allowances.  But Netflix and other online streamed video would.  Britt adopted the same argument Comcast has used to defend the practice.

“So there’s a set of standards called the IP, Internet Protocol, and those can be used for a wide variety of things in the world,” Britt explains. “There’s also something called the public Internet, which happens to use IP standards. That doesn’t mean those two things are exactly the same. So the application that we have on the iPad is over our closed-circuit network. It’s just a different standard than we’ve used traditionally for our video. But it’s not the public Internet.”

In other developments, the company’s controversial co-marketing agreement with Verizon Wireless has now expanded to four cities: Raleigh, N.C., Cincinnati and Columbus, Ohio, and Kansas City, Mo.

Time Warner Cable executives told investors the early stages of the cooperative marketing agreement will consist of a promotion that includes a $200 gift card when a customer buys both a Verizon Wireless plan and upgrades at least one service on their Time Warner Cable account.  But the company plans to gradually reduce discounts and instead offer unspecified “exclusive product enhancements” that will only be available to customers who subscribe to both services.

Lastly, expect Time Warner Cable to continue aggressive deployment of its Wi-Fi networks in New York and Los Angeles.  The company signaled it intends to construct similar Wi-Fi networks in other cities in serves, but most likely not during 2012.

New York State Attorney General Eric Schneiderman is convinced Verizon Communications is abandoning quality landline service for millions of New Yorkers while diverting money and resources to its more profitable cell service Verizon Wireless.

Last week, Schneiderman blasted the state’s largest landline provider for mounting complaints about poor service that now impact 92 percent of its customers, calling deregulation a failure for consumers and businesses in New York.

“Verizon customers deserve the high-quality service they’ve been promised,” Schneiderman told The Associated Press.

The attorney general reports that the number of customers enduring service outages for more than 24 hours has increased, while landline infrastructure — particularly wiring — is allowed to deteriorate.

Schneiderman suspects Verizon is shortchanging landline service as an increasing number of wired phone customers disconnect service, often in favor of Verizon’s more lucrative cell phone service.  The state Public Service Commission (PSC) fined Verizon $400,000 in March for similar concerns, pointing to the company’s intentional workforce reductions lengthening repair windows and creating repair backlogs in some regions.

Schneiderman’s office filed comments with the PSC requesting changes to Verizon’s Service Quality Improvement Plan, which was originally launched in 2010:

At best, New York’s telephone service market is a duopoly, and contrary to theoretical expectations of market controls, the presence of a single competitor has not in fact prevented Verizon from allowing customer service to continue to degrade. Rather than meet its obligations to provide wireline telephone customers with minimally adequate telephone service, Verizon is continuing to drastically reduce its workforce with the result that the company cannot meet its customers’ repair needs in a timely manner.

Verizon’s management has demonstrated that it is unwilling to compete to retain its wireline customer base, and instead is entirely focused on expanding its wireless business affiliate. It is incumbent on the Commission to take appropriate regulatory action to ensure that customers receive reliable telephone service with adequate repair performance. Therefore, the Commission should modify Verizon’s service plan to ensure customers receive adequate service quality in the future.

Verizon defended its service in New York pointing out the company has invested $1.5 billion in the state for infrastructure, including its FiOS fiber to the home network.  Verizon spokesman John Bonomo questioned Schneiderman’s claim that 92 percent of Verizon New York customers had poor service, noting 98 percent of its landline customers don’t have service problems.

Schneiderman’s highlighting of a $400,000 service fine imposed by the PSC did not account for unprecedented damage from both Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee late last summer, Bonomo added.

But the state’s attorney general notes Verizon’s service problems in New York have been ongoing well before last summer.

Service complaints, charted here from 2008-2011, show a major spike last summer and fall and remain higher than normal.

Schneiderman

“Since at least 2008, Verizon has frequently failed to meet these PSC telephone service standards essential to safe and reliable telephone service,” Schneiderman says. “Even as the number of telephone lines needing to be maintained has dwindled to half those of a decade ago (as customers choose to rely instead on wireless and/or cable telephony), Verizon’s continues to fail to meet the PSC’s service standard.”

Customers on the upper west side of New York City don’t need to be reminded of Verizon’s service failures.  Hundreds of Verizon landline customers in New York’s largest city were left without basic phone service for more than a week, only made worse by the fact Verizon told many of them they’d be without service for at least one additional week while the company worked on repairs.

Phone and Internet service went dead in multiple buildings along Central Park West April 10, but customers wanted to kill when they learned the phone company wanted more than two weeks to get service restored.

“I was like, excuse me, are you serious? Two weeks?” Iram Rivera, a concierge at 262 Central Park West, told DNAinfo.  His building was hard hit by the service outage — 80 percent of the building’s 80 apartments were affected.

“I just don’t get the feeling that there’s much of an appreciation on Verizon’s part that this is a hardship for people,” said Ken Coughlin, who lives on West 87th Street and Central Park West. “There’s no communication, there’s no updates, it’s infuriating.”

The outage only affected traditional landline service and DSL broadband over copper phone wiring. The more modern fiber-optic FiOS network that provides TV, Internet and voice service wasn’t affected, Bonomo said.

Schneiderman notes landline outages have an especially hard impact on small businesses:

In the current recession, the fragile economic condition of many small businesses puts them at risk of financial disaster if they suddenly lose telephone service, and their provider is unable to restore service promptly. Each day that these businesses are without service they lose significant revenues that many simply cannot survive without.

Small businesses depend on functional telephone service to meet the needs of their customers in numerous ways. When customers are unable to reach a business by telephone, they may assume the business is closed and purchase the goods or services they want elsewhere. Restaurants are prevented from giving reservations to prospective customers who call. Many types of businesses depend on working telephone lines for processing credit card charges, and may lose substantial sales by limiting transactions to cash or checks. Professional offices can be prevented from providing medical, legal or accounting services to their clients without working telephone service.

In Schneiderman’s view, the deregulation policies now in place in New York have failed consumers, leaving them with a duopoly of phone providers with insufficient oversight.

For competition to benefit customers with improved service, lower prices, and more innovation, there has to first be a willingness to compete, which is significantly absent from Verizon-New York’s policies and practices.

Rather than robust competition, New York’s telephone market is at best a duopoly, with as many indicators of cooperation between the two providers as robust contest for customers. Furthermore, the actual behavior of consumers in the real world is markedly different from the PSC’s theoretical assumptions about the telephone market.

When a Verizon customer experiences a prolonged service outage or installation delay, the option to switch carriers to a cable provider is of no immediate use. Finally, even if consumers wanted to compare Verizon’s service performance with cable provider alternatives, the lack of available information prevents consumers from making educated choices.

In New York, most customers are served by Verizon Communications, Time Warner Cable, or Cablevision.  Time Warner Cable and Verizon recently agreed to cross-market the other’s products and services as part of a wireless spectrum transfer.

Just over a week after Verizon Communications announced it would stop selling DSL service to customers without landline voice telephone service, the company today confirmed it plans to stop selling DSL to customers who live in an area also served by the company’s fiber optic FiOS network.

New customers looking for broadband from Verizon will have to sign up for FiOS to get it.

The announcement came as part of a quarterly conference call with Wall Street investors.

Some consumers looking for the cheapest Internet access packages have gotten them from the phone company, often years earlier, and are grandfathered in at those prices.  Verizon says it does not intend to disconnect existing DSL customers, who can keep the service indefinitely, but will not sell the slower broadband service to new or moving customers.

No exact timing for the new policy to take effect was given.

Verizon’s broadband success story has been with its fiber optic network, which continues to add customers.  The same cannot be said of their DSL service, which continues to lose business to Verizon’s cable competitors, especially in areas where FiOS remains unavailable.  FiOS was designed to protect Verizon’s landline business and it seems to be doing exactly that.  At least 63% of Verizon’s landline-associated revenue now comes from its fiber optic service.

Verizon’s executives have made it clear change is coming to the traditional landline business.  The company has not said what it intends to do with DSL customers in non-FiOS areas but did announce they would decommission pay telephones and discontinue long distance calling cards in the future.