Cablevision’s executive suites are filled with intrigue and family politics. — Phillip Dampier

Cablevision’s quarterly results conference call last week was an exercise in obfuscation.

Senior management at the cable operator that serves parts of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut announced some difficult financial results, including the fact the company lost at least 39,000 customers during the last quarter — a significant number considering Cablevision only serves 3.6 million customers as of the end of December. At least 11,000 of those customers stopped paying their bills and disappeared, presumably because their homes and businesses were victims of Hurricane Sandy. But company officials admitted they also lost high-speed Internet customers because of a recent price increase and ongoing heavy promotional activity from their biggest competitor — Verizon FiOS. The phone company has offered triple play packages as low as $89 a month with $300 debit card rebates, which makes hiking rates untenable.

Cablevision CEO James Dolan has been ducking hard questions from Wall Street analysts concerned about the company’s spending and marketing, the loss of subscribers, and fallout from a 2011 management shakeup. Richard Greenfield, an analyst at research firm BTIG, has been frustrated getting answers from the Dolan family that has controlled Cablevision for decades, tweeting Cablevision executives stopped taking his questions on regular conference calls after he began asking some of those hard questions.

Cablevision’s Upgrades Will Continue; Company Wants an Improved Subscriber Experience

Greenfield

One of the problems Verizon FiOS’ fiber to the home network brings Cablevision as its largest competitor is fiber technology is superior to Cablevision’s cable network infrastructure. Verizon has been a formidable challenger. This has forced the cable operator to make dramatic improvements, particularly in its broadband product, to stay competitive. But some of these upgrades have been delayed by the effects of Hurricane Sandy, which affected 60 percent of Cablevision’s subscribers in the tri-state area.

Cablevision has been forced to offer customers service credits, substantially curtail sales and advertising efforts, and suspend the non-pay collection rules and disconnect policy.

Cablevision has also committed itself to an expensive robust Wi-Fi network to differentiate itself from Verizon. Cablevision has an extensive Wi-Fi presence in its service area, offering unlimited free service for its customers. Verizon does not. Cablevision ended 2012 with more than 67,000 installed hotspots, with more than 30% of Optimum Online customers using the service in 2012.

At the same time, cable television programming costs have skyrocketed, but Cablevision has generally avoided raising prices fearing Verizon would poach unhappy subscribers.

Drama Surrounding Executive Changes

Internet comes last?

In 2011, Cablevision accepted the resignation of Tom Rutledge, former chief operating officer. Richard Greenfield dismissed Cablevision’s statements about his departure as “spin,” and claims the real reason Rutledge left for Charter Communications is that Jim Dolan became dissatisfied with Rutledge’s performance. But that poor performance could also be attributed to some of the company’s own decisions, particularly when it engaged in multiple battles with programmers during 2010 that forced popular cable networks and broadcasters temporarily off Cablevision lineups. Greenfield suggests the biggest impact was felt when the cable operator dropped the local Fox station right in the middle of the World Series. BTIG believes subscriber losses accelerated for these reasons (and Verizon’s aggressive marketing efforts) and helped the company see its earnings and subscriber trends hurt.

Jim Dolan has reportedly taken a more hands-on approach at Cablevision and even appointed his wife Kristin to assume a stronger role in how Cablevision markets itself to customers.

The result was a Cablevision rebranding that Greenfield criticized in September as “firmly entrenched in the past,” because it emphasizes television and phone service over broadband.

Avoiding Tough Questions

Several of the questions Greenfield wanted answered, but could not, dealt with the transformation of part of Cablevision’s service area thanks to Sandy and some of the company’s earlier missteps:

• Permanent System Loss: How many Cablevision homes in the service area will no longer exist or take years to rebuild?
• Recapture Suspended Accounts: At least 24,000 video subscribers disappeared after Hurricane Sandy. Has this number changed recently and are there plans to win these customers back?
• Verizon FIOS was back up and running in storm-damaged areas before Cablevision. How has this affected your operations?
• Marketing Missteps: Are there plans to correct the marketing deficiencies from the 2012 campaign in 2013, particularly for broadband?
• Onyx Guide and Network DVR: Neither are well-received by customers. The Onyx on-screen Guide has been slammed for not working properly, being cumbersome to use, and difficult to read. The remote DVR has been criticized for its poor quality and reliability over traditional in-home DVRs. What will Cablevision do to address these complaints?
• Why is Cablevision challenging Viacom in court over cable network programming costs when sports programming is where the real costs are?

[flv width=”512″ height=”308″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CBS Chattanooga Fastest Broadband in America 2-28-13.flv[/flv]

Chattanooga’s gigabit fiber network demonstrates local government works. The fiber to the home network has already brought $400 million in investment dollars and more than 6,000 new jobs to the area. At the same time, both Comcast and AT&T are working to lobby state legislatures to ban these kinds of public networks from ever getting off the ground. CBS News profiles EPB Fiber. (6 minutes)

One of the side benefits of Google getting into the broadband provider business is learning first-hand what is reality and what represents provider spin and marketing nonsense used to justify high prices and usage limits.

As Google Fiber slowly spreads across Kansas City, the search engine giant is gaining first hand-experience in the broadband business. Google understands what cable operators endured in the 1980s and what Verizon was coping with until it pulled the plug on FiOS expansion: the upfront costs to build a new network that reaches individual subscribers’ homes and businesses can be very high. But once those networks are paid off, revenue opportunities explode, particularly when delivering broadband service.

Milo Medin, a former cable Internet entrepreneur and now vice president of access services at Google, presented a cogent explanation of why Google can make gigabit broadband an earner once construction costs are recouped. He demonstrated the economics of fiber broadband at a meeting of the San Jose chapter of the IEEE.

In addition to a long term investment in fiber, and the new business opportunities 1,000Mbps Internet provides, Google has learned from the mistakes other utilities have made and is trying to establish close working relationships with local governments to find ways to cut costs and bureaucracy.

In Kansas City, Google has placed staff in the same office with city zoning and permit officials. Working together in an informal public-private partnership to cut red tape, local inspectors have agreed to coordinate appointments with Google installers to reduce delays. That alone reportedly saves Google two percent in construction expenses.

“Governments have policies that can make it easy or hard, so I say, ‘if you make it hard for me, enjoy your Comcast,’” Medin said.

Internet traffic vs. costs

Medin notes broadband adoption and expansion in the United States is being artificially constrained by the marketplace, where wired providers are resting on their laurels.

More than a decade ago, people paid $40 a month for 4-5Mbps service, Medin noted.

Providers have kept the price the same, arguing they create more value for subscribers with ongoing speed increases.

But Medin notes overseas, prices are falling and speeds are increasing far faster than what we see in North America.

“Broadband in America is not advancing at nearly the pace it needs to be,” Medin argues. “Most of you have seen dramatic changes in wireless, but there’s never been a real step function increase in wired. That’s what’s needed for us to retain leadership in technology — and not having it is a big problem.”

Medin points to OECD statistics that show the cost per megabit per month in the U.S. is the sixth highest among 34 OECD nations. Only Mexico, Chile, Israel, New Zealand, and Greece pay higher prices. Every other OECD nation pays less.

By leveraging fiber optics, which every provider uses to some extent, costs plummet after network construction expenses are paid off. In fact, despite the explosion in network traffic, provider bandwidth costs remain largely flat even with growing use, which makes the introduction of Internet Overcharging schemes like usage caps and consumption-based pricing unjustified.

“Moving bits is fundamentally not expensive,” said Medin.

In 1998, when cable broadband first became available in many markets, the monthly price for the service was around $40 a month. Internet transit prices — the costs to transport data from your ISP to websites around the world averaged $1,200 per megabit that year. Today that cost has dropped below $4 per megabit and is forecast to drop to just $0.94 by 2015.

Windstream has announced the increased broadband investments that expanded DSL service to about 75,000 more homes and businesses and brought fiber connections to cell towers are nearly complete and the company intends to dramatically cut spending on further enhancements by the end of 2013.

Jeff Gardner, Windstream’s CEO, told investors on a conference call last week the company’s highest priority in 2013 is preserving its current dividend to create value for shareholders. Not on the priority list: improving broadband infrastructure to support video streaming services, further expanding broadband in areas it now bypasses, and boosting the quality of service it delivers to current customers.

Gardner called the company’s increased investment in 2011 and 2012 a result of “finite opportunities that provide[d] attractive investment returns.”

But most of that spending will come to an end next year.

“We expect to substantially complete our capital investments related to fiber to the tower projects, reaching 4,500 towers by the end of 2013,” said Gardner. “In addition, we will finish most of our broadband stimulus initiatives […] to roughly 75,000 new households. As we exit 2013, we will see capital spending related to these projects decrease substantially.”

That could be bad news for communities in places like Wayne County, Mo., which suffers with inadequate broadband from the company. In some areas when local broadband traffic reduces DSL speeds to a crawl, area businesses are occasionally forced to shut down for the day.

Broadband and business services now account for 70% of Windstream’s revenue, but it has come with a price: increased investment, that Wall Street considers negative to the company’s value. To satisfy analysts and shareholders, Gardner made it clear improving the balance sheet is a major priority. He said he will continue to direct excess free cash flow first to preserve the company’s shareholder dividend, and then direct much of the rest to debt repayment.

That does not mean Windstream will end all investments in its business. The company now spends 12.4% on ongoing capital investments and will continue to do so, but much of the spending will cover network upkeep and supporting more profitable business services.

“Over the last four years, our acquisitions have been very targeted on businesses that are growing in the strategic growth areas that we’re focused on, and we’ve really changed the mix very significantly here, away from the consumer business toward the enterprise space, and I think that puts us in a very different position with respect to the stability of our revenue and OIBDA over time,” Gardner added.

Windstream plans to bring back its “price for life” promotion this year.

Gardner noted Windstream is well-positioned to take advantage of the fact it has few competitors, which reduces pressure to invest and improve its networks to stay competitive.

“Our residential customers remain concentrated in very rural areas where there is less competition, which has contributed to a more stable consumer business,” Gardner admitted.

He added that those rural customers will have to rely on the company’s satellite partner Dish Networks for video services. Windstream will not build a “capital-intensive facilities based technology” to support online video. In contrast, CenturyLink has invested in Prism, a fiber-to-the-neighborhood service in several of its larger markets, to offer triple play packages of broadband, phone, and cable TV. Windstream has no plans to follow.

Despite investments in 2011 and 2012 to improve broadband service and speeds, Windstream’s DSL services have not kept up with its cable competitors.

During the last quarter, Windstream lost 2,000 broadband customers and 23,000 consumer voice lines (a 4.5% decline year over year).

To stem the tide of customers moving away from the phone company, Windstream is trying to sell value-added Internet support services, online backup, and faster speeds to maximize profitability. It will also add new customers made possible from federally funded broadband stimulus projects.

Windstream customers can expect to see increased promotional activity this year to win or keep their business:

• Covering the costs of switching from another provider to Windstream;
• A return to the “price for life” promotion, which promises stable rates as long as a customer stays with the company;
• A substantial introductory discount on satellite TV when bundled with Windstream’s own services.

AT&T and Verizon have forced some of their customers to abandon DSL service in favor of fiber upgrades that are sometimes not actually up and running or leave customers with no phone service during power outages.

Wall, N.J. resident James Hallock found his DSL service suddenly stopped working earlier this month, so he called Verizon Communications to get service restored.

“A Verizon tech explained that the service was no longer being offered,” Hallock said.

The termination of his DSL service came with no prior notification, complained Hallock, and Verizon told him his only way back to broadband with the phone company was a forced upgrade to a more costly FiOS package that included phone service that won’t work during power outages.

“In the last outage I saw, people were out of electricity for weeks,” Hallock told the Asbury Park Press in an email. “I don’t believe it’s true that we have to give up traditional phone service, but try spending hours on the phone with Verizon to find out.”

Verizon spokesman Lee J. Gierczynski told the newspaper, “We don’t discontinue a customer’s service without notification, so we’ll have to find out more about what specifically is going on with this customer.”

But Verizon’s CEO says the company is embarked on a plan to rid itself of its copper wire network, especially where FiOS fiber exists.

“Every place we have FiOS, we are going to kill the copper,” Verizon CEO Lowell McAdam told attendees of an investor conference last year. “We are going to just take it out of service. Areas that are more rural and more sparsely populated, we have got LTE built that will handle all of those services and so we are going to cut the copper off there.”

Jackie Patterson, another Verizon customer, found her DSL service suddenly stopped working on Christmas Day.

“Verizon said that they were discontinuing the service and we had to get FIOS Internet (no more DSL) and FiOS phone service,” Patterson said. “I liked the idea that we still had phone service during blackouts — like during Sandy — but now we won’t be able to have that with FIOS.”

AT&T has been doing its part to cut off DSL customers as well. One AT&T customer reported her AT&T DSL service was suddenly terminated without notice in October, 2012 because her neighborhood was scheduled to be upgraded to U-verse, AT&T’s fiber to the neighborhood service. Five months later, AT&T’s U-verse network is still not available, despite the “forcible upgrade,” and nobody at AT&T can tell when it ultimately will be.

“It’ll be resolved on February 22nd,” AT&T promised back in December — two months after Brie’s service initially went dead, she tells The Consumerist.

“A representative showed up today to complete our installation,” complained Brie. “Guess what he found? The lines outside aren’t working. And guess what he told me? He’d talk to his manager. He’d escalate it. He’d get engineering out. He didn’t know how to fix it. He couldn’t tell me when or how or what needed to be done and no timetable as to when the work would be complete.”

Unfortunately for Brie, switching to the local cable company isn’t an option – it doesn’t offer service to her home.