Phillip "Doesn't Worship Wall Street" Dampier

Bray Cary, president and CEO of a group of West Virginia television stations enjoying advertising revenue from Frontier Communications, was back on his Decision Makers program to allow an opposing viewpoint to the puff piece interview he held earlier with Frontier’s Ken Arndt, Frontier’s Southeast region chief.  This time, he invited Ron Collins, vice-president of the Communications Workers of America to give the CWA side.  Cary’s Tea-‘N-Cookies Breakfast Club With Ken this was not.  Cary decided to play hardball with Collins, leaving no viewer in doubt where Cary stood on the question of Frontier’s proposed purchase of West Virginia’s phone lines from Verizon.

Unfortunately, Collins was not completely prepared to rebut Cary’s pro-Wall Street, pro-deal propaganda and looked ill at ease at times during the interview.  We’re not, and Cary’s “facts” deserve some investigation.  After all, how hard should it be to rebut a guy who believes Wall Street and the banks have all the right answers for West Virginians’ phone service?

• Video No Longer Available.

Right from the outset, Cary wants to play “devil’s advocate” with Collins, asking why in the world the CWA is opposed to this deal.  That was a major departure from his cheerleading session with Arndt.

Bray Cary, Host of Decision Makers

“I’ve looked at this […] their stock has been extremely stable.  Wall Street appears to be signaling their financial viability is okay.  Why is the stock market not reacting negatively?  If it’s good for stockholders, how can it be bad for their financial stability.  Stockholders want financial stability,” Cary said in a series of statements about the deal, including mentioning a Moody’s report on the deal.

The Moody’s report Cary talks about is for shareholders who will reap the rewards or suffer the losses based on the success or failure of the deal.  Moody doesn’t rate the deal’s impact on consumers who have to live with the results.  What’s good for Wall Street is not necessarily what’s best for customers.

“What you don’t have is anyone in the financial community suggesting this is a bad financial deal,” Cary said December 13th.

Wrong.  Almost a week earlier, on December 7th, D.A. Davidson, a respected Wall Street analyst said the opposite.  In a story published in Barron’s: “Frontier Communications’ Shares Not Wired for Success,” the analyst firm argued the regional telecom’s acquisition of Verizon’s rural lines will be… wait for it… bad for the stock.

Cary’s claim that Wall Street is concerned with the long term viability of companies belies the growing reality that much of the investment culture in America has a long term obsession with short term results.  Your company is only as good as your last quarter’s financial earnings statement, and several bad ones in a row are usually enough to bring a recommendation to dump shares.  Frontier has kept its stock value stable largely as a result of their steady dividend payment.  Collins claims Frontier has gone beyond reason, paying 125% of earnings in dividends.  That may make the stock a popular choice for income investors, but is also eerily familiar.

FairPoint Communications also enjoyed a healthy stock price because of its high dividend payout.  Wall Street only got concerned when they thought that deal might not go through.  Morgan Stanley issued a report in 2007 suggesting the deal between FairPoint and Verizon to take control of landline customers in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, was itself helping to prop up the stock’s value.  We saw how far that got FairPoint when the company declared bankruptcy a few months ago.

Ron Collins, CWA's vice president

Indeed, smaller independent phone companies commonly use high dividends to remain attractive to investors and stay viable in a tough market.  Windstream is another such company and even CNBC’s Jim Cramer gave due diligence to the fact high dividends and stock value by themselves don’t necessarily predict the company’s long term success or failure.

Make no mistake, Frontier has sold this deal to investors based on dividend payouts, claimed cost savings, and a safe bet that any broadband in rural America will earn them increased revenue, especially where consumers have no other place to go for service.

Frontier will take on massive additional debt to finance the deal, but on paper it actually appears to reduce their debt ratio.  That’s because when you add millions of new customers, the debt doesn’t look so big next to the increased revenue those additional customers will bring, assuming they stay with Frontier.  Should Frontier’s performance underwhelm customers, they’ll drop service if they can.  If mobile phone networks do a better job of reaching these rural customers, many will drop landline service anyway.  When wireless broadband service becomes a more realistic option, customers might toss Frontier’s slow speed DSL overboard.

AT&T and Verizon have read the writing on the wall — an ongoing decline in landline service and the eventual death of the kind of service Frontier is providing its customers on its legacy network.  Would you be better off with a company that recognizes the truth about the future of wired basic phone service, or the one that wants to buy up obsolete networks and hang on until the last customer leaves?

Cary’s concern starts and stops with shareholder value, not the individual long term needs of consumers across West Virginia.

“All of the bankers and all of Wall Street are saying financially this is a good deal financially for Frontier,” Cary argued.

“Good for Wall Street, bad for West Virginia,” Collins replied.

“Well, see I disagree… that has been a myth put out there, and the reason we don’t have any jobs in this state is companies don’t want to come here just because of that mentality.  People need to make money.  You look at where companies are flourishing, the workers flourish when they do,” Cary said.

Really.  Then why are several of these telecommunications companies awash in revenue also continuing to reduce their workforce in their relentless effort to obtain “cost savings.”  Someone is making money, just not the average employee.  Every state has pro-business acolytes claiming businesses don’t want to come to their state because of regulation and a hostile business climate, even those with the fewest regulations, lowest taxes, and little protection for employees and consumers.

Cary does make one valid point: Verizon wants out of West Virginia and refuses to invest a dime in the state as it looks for a quick exit.  Instead the company has diverted resources from serving smaller states’ phone service needs into its larger city FiOS fiber to the home system where it believes it can reap more revenue.  Whether that disinvestment should be permitted in the first place is a question that needs to be asked.

Verizon is a regulated utility that is required to meet certain performance standards, and the company’s long history of operations under that framework, under which it profited handsomely, does require consideration.  But the state can also provide additional incentives to make it more attractive for Verizon to commit more resources in the state, ranging from tax credits, public-private investment, rewards for performance and service improvements, etc.  It can also find someone else to provide the service, or let local communities band together into cooperatives to run their own networks, should customers find that could deliver better service.

At the very minimum, Frontier should he held to strict conditions that require a fiscally responsible transaction for ratepayers, not just for shareholders and management.  Verizon’s workforce, already cut to the bone, should not bear the brunt of “cost savings” either, both now and into the future.  If Frontier wants to deliver broadband, they should commit to offering 21st century speed (not the 1-3Mbps service typical for their smaller service areas) without their draconian 5GB usage limit in their Acceptable Use Policy.

Cary doesn’t concern himself with those kinds of details, but consumers and small businesses in his state sure do.

Cary wants more jobs and more earnings for West Virginia.  In the changing digital economy, high speed broadband isn’t an option — it’s a necessity.  Verizon has a proven track record of being able to provide 21st century broadband — Frontier does not (sorry, 1-3Mbps DSL is more 1999, not 2010).

Cary makes an astonishing statement in the third segment of the interview which makes me question his ability to grasp the reality-based community most Americans live in today.

“I have great faith in the banking system in America, in Wall Street, to evaluate these things.”

That stunned Collins, who asked, “even after the 2008 crash?”

Cary seems to think “everything is back to normal.”  Unfortunately, after the bailouts and big lobbying dollars being spent in Washington to preserve the status quo as much as possible, everything is back to normal… for Wall Street and the banks.  The rest of the country, including West Virginia, is another matter.

FairPoint's Stock Price from 2007, when it announced the deal with Verizon, to late 2009 when the company declared bankruptcy. By late 2008/early 2009, what seemed like a great deal for investors was apparently not, as the panicked rushed for the exits.

I’ll put my trust in the wisdom of West Virginians who want good service and reasonable prices.  If Cary wants to read from the Good Book of the “paragons of virtue” like AIG, Bear-Stearns and Goldman Sachs, let him sell his TV stations to help finance the bailouts.  Remember that when we went through this before with Hawaii Telecom and FairPoint Communications, the cheerleading session on Wall Street lasted only as long as the quarterly balance sheets looked good.  At the first sign of trouble, they bailed on the stock and both companies ended up in bankruptcy.

For them, it represented just another roll of the dice in the giant financial casino we call Wall Street.

For the rural residents of states like West Virginia who ultimately have to live with the results, this is their phone and broadband service we are talking about.  Before all bets are placed and the dice are thrown, isn’t it worth considering them?

Liberally borrowing from ABC’s Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, and those home improvement shows on HGTV, Verizon has been producing their own “home technology makeovers” for infomercials airing in different Verizon service areas, designed to pitch their fiber to the home FiOS product line. It’s a non-threatening introduction for those not so technology-inclined, but love the premise of home makeovers.

The Reyes family of Clearwater, Florida is the latest to receive a Verizon-inspired makeover this March, which will air later as an infomercial in the Tampa Bay area.

The family was chosen from those who auditioned for the role during the past two months.

Verizon traditionally sets up each show by illustrating the challenges busy families face when trying to work with outdated electronics.  It’s also a great chance to bash the competition, suggesting their cable reception isn’t so great, their calls to 911 are broken up and unclear, and their Internet is slow and generally lousy.  At this point, Bright House Networks, Tampa’s predominate cable company, is supposed to be squirming, because you can bet these families aren’t complaining about Verizon phone service or Verizon DSL.

After the family leaves the home, a bandwagon of Verizon workers and self-described “Design,” “Tech,” and “FiOS”-Gurus show up and replace their obsolete equipment with Verizon’s family of products, ranging from FiOS for their television, phone, and broadband needs, and some extra goodies thrown in from Verizon Wireless for mobility.  Add some new electronics and some room makeovers and the job is complete.

When the family returns, they are suitably impressed with Verizon’s products (which they presumably obtain for free, at least for awhile), the company throws a block party for the entire neighborhood, and everyone goes away with a positive feeling about the company.

“I like the concept of the show, how one company can bring so much happiness to a family just by changing their home technology,” said Jessica Reyes. “It may seem simple to some people, but I know this will have a huge impact on our family.”

See?

Actually, it’s a brilliant execution of marketing to those who don’t suddenly start drooling at the mere mention of FiOS in their neighborhood.  For plenty of Americans, a decidedly non-technical demonstration of the technology products Verizon sells is a much better way to sell service to those who think fiber is a matter of diet, not home entertainment.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Verizon MyHome 2.0.mp4[/flv]

Verizon’s promotional reel for My Home 2.0 shows home technology makeovers, and can’t resist taking a few pokes at the competition’s service. (1 minute)

Apparently the “fight back” component of Time Warner Cable’s campaign against the high cost of cable has not been a stunning success because the nation’s second largest cable operator continues to roll over its subscribers with some striking rate hikes, this time across upstate New York.

The usual promotional brochure began appearing in mailboxes across the state, filled with glowing words about all of the wonderful things Time Warner Cable did for you since your last rate increase, and promises for more wonderful things to come… along with fine print language at the bottom subtly labeled “2010 Rates.”  They don’t even call it a rate increase anymore, although it will cost most video and broadband subscribers in Rochester an additional $7.70 a month — $92.40 a year, effective February 1st.

After the company complained back in April it “needed” to engage in Internet Overcharging experiments to use that revenue to upgrade networks, the additional $3 a month/$36 a year they will get from millions of Road Runner subscribers in New York alone should be more than enough to do just that.  Those on lower speed economy tiers are also facing rate hikes: $3 a month for Road Runner Lite and $4 a month for Road Runner Basic, reaching $22.95 and $29.95 a month in Rochester, respectively.

As a concession to Rochester, one of the last remaining cities in New York still stuck with 384kbps upload speeds, the company will increase the upload speed for the division’s Standard Road Runner service customers to 1Mbps sometime in 2010.  Those with Road Runner Turbo will probably see upload speed increasing to 2Mbps, accordingly.  But Rochester still isn’t on the upgrade list for DOCSIS 3, bypassed because of the very limited competition Frontier offers the cable company locally.  Verizon FiOS fiber to the home service is being provided in most other large New York cities.

You probably didn’t ask for it, but you’re going to get it anyway: NBA TV HD and the Sundance Channel was added today to the Rochester-area’s digital cable tier.

Time Warner Cable's new rates for the Rochester/Finger Lakes region of western New York become effective February 1st.

Meanwhile in the state capital Albany, news of the rate increase was particularly unwelcome in the hard hit upstate economy.  The Albany Times-Union called the rate increase “an insult” on hard-hit New Yorkers:

Your neighbor lost his job, the housing market is in the tank, and the economic recovery is nowhere in sight.

And now to add insult to injury, as other household costs rise, your cable TV bill is going up next year too — in some cases by nearly 10 percent.

Time Warner Cable sent a flier to local customers this month with the new prices. Except for the most basic package, all the rates are going up. The “basic with standard” TV package, which includes dozens of mainstay cable channels such as CNN, ESPN and Comedy Central in addition to local broadcast channels, will rise 9.7 percent to $61.95 a month from $56.45 currently.

The company’s “All the Best” package that combines TV with Internet and phone service will go from $139.95 a month to $146.95 a month, an increase of 7 percent.

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WTEN Albany Time Warner Bill Increase 12-31-09.flv[/flv]

WTEN-TV Albany reports that Time Warner Cable’s latest rate increase will cause many upstate New York residents to drop premium channels in even greater numbers to economize. (2 minutes)

Verizon FiOS, for now anyway, will be cheaper than most of Time Warner Cable’s packages in Syracuse.  The Salt City faces rate increases averaging six to eight percent.  Time Warner Cable spokesman Jim Gordon blamed the rate hikes on the same things cable always blames rate hikes on — increased programming costs.  From the Syracuse Post-Standard:

Time Warner spokesman Jim Gordon said there are two major reasons for the increase: higher prices charges by the providers of programs and the rising cost of doing business. Customers are using more services more often, Gordon said, and cable is becoming more important in people’s lives.

In 2009, the number of channels on which the “start over” feature is available rose from 45 to 90, and customers used the feature 10 million times, he said. Customers also watched 85 million videos on demand, he said. “People are staying home more, and they’re hunkering down and they’re utilizing these services,” he said.

Cable operators are free to raise rates on everything except the basic service of broadcast and educational channels, for which operators need permission of regulators.

Below is a list of popular packages and corresponding rate increases:
• Talk ‘n’ View package, of telephone and cable television service, will rise from $100.50 to $108.95 – an increase of about 8 percent.
• Surf ‘n’ View, a combination of Internet and cable television, will increase from $105.50 to $111.95, an increase of 6 percent.
• All the Best, which combines cable, internet and phone, will rise from $135.50 to $144.95, or 7 percent.

Prices are slightly lower with Verizon Communications Inc.’s FiOS, which recently entered the Central New York market and offers a basic package of telephone, Internet and cable television for $109.99 to $129.99.

Further north in Watertown, rates are also increasing by 6 to 8 percent starting February 1st, the second increase in the past 11 months. Time Warner last raised its rates in March.

Time Warner Cable spokesman Jim Gordon said the current increases are due to price increases by programmers and an increase in the company’s cost of doing business. Gordon also cited an increase in the use of the company’s features including “Start Over” and video on demand.

“People are staying home more because of the current economic situation, and customers are finding value in these enhancements,” Gordon said.  The Watertown Daily Times notes Gordon doesn’t think subscribers will mind enough to leave.

“Our goal in doing this is to enhance the customer experience,” Mr. Gordon said.

Mr. Gordon said he doesn’t think the rate increases will prompt many Time Warner Cable customers to switch to another provider, because of the local customer service the company offers.

“We’re more than ready to compete,” Mr. Gordon said.

Customers can expect to see the following increases on their cable bills this year:

• A combination of standard and basic cable service costs will increase from $62.50 to $67.75, an increase of about 8 percent.
• The Surf ‘n’ View package will increase from $105.50 to $111.95, an increase of about 8 percent.
• The Talk ‘n’ View package will increase from $100.50 to $108.95, an increase of about 8 percent.
• The All the Best package, including cable, phone and Internet service, will rise from $135.50 to $144.95, an increase of about 7 percent.

Verizon FiOS, a new cable provider in the area, has a basic package that includes cable, telephone and Internet service for $109.99 to $129.99.

Satellite television provider DirecTV also has announced rate increases of 3 percent to 5 percent, which also will take effect Feb. 1.

Watertown residents noted the irony of the company’s “Roll Over or Get Tough” campaign in light of today’s rate increase.

“Imagine if you went to the supermarket and they told you that you had to buy 100 items you didn’t want and would never use for ever item you actually wanted. This is how Time Warner Cable operates,” one writes.

A Raymondville resident remarks, “Isn’t it strange after Time Warner solicits its customers to support their get tough effort to fight with the Fox networks in negotiations over price increases for programming that they can institute one of their own? Is this the real reason that they lobbied all of their customers? Is this the beginning of setting things up so that we end up paying for every channel that we watch? If enough people push to get rid of the junk they give us, that we never watch, so we get a package we will? It almost sounds like a shell game in which the pea is not under any of the shells, a no win situation for subscribers no matter how it shakes out. New businesses have been created here ones in which someone has figured out how to get money from consumers without really doing anything to get it. The New American Way. Welcome to the new Millennium.”

Several staff members working for the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission (WUTC), the regulatory agency reviewing the proposed Frontier purchase of Verizon territories in Washington state, have reversed their opposition to the Frontier-Verizon deal because of concessions they believe will better serve consumers impacted by the deal.  But the provisions don’t come close to protecting consumer rights and do not sufficiently protect local telephone and broadband service.

The WUTC must be told that broadband expansion from a service provider that insists on a 5 gigabyte usage limit in its Acceptable Use Policy makes such expansion barely worth the effort.  The WUTC must insist on a permanent exemption from any usage limits for Washington state consumers, especially because many may find Frontier DSL to be their only broadband option for years to come.  To allow a company with such a paltry limit to be the monopoly provider of broadband puts Washington residents and small businesses at a serious economic disadvantage in the digital economy.

Would you choose to reside or locate your business in a community with one broadband provider offering a limit so low, your broadband usage will be limited to web page browsing and e-mail?

High Speed Internet Access Service

Customers may not resell High Speed Internet Access Service (“Service”) without a legal and written agency agreement with Frontier. Customers may not retransmit the Service or make the Service available to anyone outside the premises (i.e., wi-fi or other methods of networking). Customers may not use the Service to host any type of commercial server. Customers must comply with all Frontier network, bandwidth, data storage and usage limitations. Frontier may suspend, terminate or apply additional charges to the Service if such usage exceeds a reasonable amount of usage. A reasonable amount of usage is defined as 5GB combined upload and download consumption during the course of a 30-day billing period. The Company has made no decision about potential charges for monthly usage in excess of 5GB.

Frontier will be a part of the lives of almost 500,000 state residents, including those in Wenatchee and other parts of North Central Washington.  That covers a lot of rural residents with no hope of cable competition or other broadband options.  Verizon is the second-largest local telephone service provider in Washington, serving cities such as Redmond, Kirkland, Everett, Bothell, Woodinville, Kennewick, Pullman, Chelan, Richland, Naches, Westport, Lynden, Anacortes, Mount Vernon, Newport, Oakesdale, Republic and Camas-Washougal.  Currently, Verizon has approximately 1,300 employees in Washington, who would be transferred to Frontier once the deal is complete.

Frontier’s concessions don’t come close to assuring residents they can get the kind of broadband service they need in the 21st century, especially from a company that could easily find itself swamped in debt.  Let’s look at what Frontier has offered:

• Invest $40 million to expand high-speed Internet access in Washington.
• Submit quarterly financial reports to identify merger savings.
• Branding and transition costs to be paid by stockholders, not ratepayers.
• Increase financial incentives to prevent a decline in service quality.
• Adopt Verizon’s existing rates and contracts for at least three years.

Frontier would also be required to pay residential customers $35 for missed service repairs or installation appointments. That’s $10 more than Verizon now pays. Current Verizon customers would also have 90 days after the transition to choose another provider without incurring a $5 switching fee. Low-income customers who qualify through the Washington Telephone Assistance Program will also receive a one-time $75 credit if the company fails to offer appropriate discounts or deposit waivers.

Our take:

• Investing $40 million in low speed DSL service with a 5GB usage allowance saddles residents with yesterday’s technology with a usage allowance that rations the Internet.
• Customers don’t care about merger cost reductions because they’ll never enjoy those savings, but they’ll feel their impact if they include layoffs and reduction in investment.
• Consumers will be more concerned about what happens to their phone and broadband service when the “transition” results in service and billing problems.  Will stockholders pay inconvenienced customers?
• Vague promises of increased financial incentives for a company to do… its job, without declines in service quality, exposes just how unnecessary this deal is.  Why not offer incentives for Verizon to stay?
• Freezing rates for three years doesn’t prevent massive increases to make up the difference in year four and beyond.

The WUTC staff had it right the first time when it opposed the deal.  A healthy, financially secure Verizon is still a better deal than a smaller independent company saddled with debt.  Frontier seals the fate of Washington state residents from the benefits of fiber optics wired to the home, delivering high speed broadband for the future because Frontier doesn’t do fiber to the home on its own.  With a tiny usage allowance, just waiting for the company to decide to enforce it means you won’t be using your broadband account too much anyway.

The WUTC is accepting comments and you need to start calling and writing.  Make sure to tell the Commission it must secure a permanent exemption for Washington from any Internet Overcharging schemes like consumption/usage-based Internet billing and any usage limits Frontier defines in its Acceptable Use Policy.  Better yet, tell them Frontier’s concessions don’t come close to making you feel good about Verizon turning over your phone service to a company that is traveling the same road three other companies took all the way to bankruptcy.

Customers who would like to comment on the provisions can call toll-free: (888) 333-9882 or send e-mail to [email protected]. The deadline for comments is January 10th.

Broadband Reports has obtained documents accidentally publicly posted outlining some significant changes to how Verizon markets and prices its fiber optic to the home FiOS service.

Most customers can “look forward to” price hikes of $10-20 for their FiOS bundled service package January 17th, if the leaked documents are accurate.  The company will also replace its “TV Essentials” package and bring back symmetrical broadband service options (same upload and download speeds), according to Broadband Reports.

More concerning is the introduction of a uniform $360 early termination fee for customers who sign up for broadband or television service from Verizon and decide to switch providers.  Although the fee will not apply if customers agree to stay with Verizon for their home phone service, the justification for such a high charge will be open for debate.  The company promises to pro-rate the fee for every month a customer does stay with FiOS, but according to the report will impose it against a consumer that finds themselves having to relocate to a non-Verizon service area.  For someone in western New York between Buffalo and Rochester, a move just down the street into Frontier Communications territory could result in a final Verizon bill several hundred dollars more than expected.

Currently, Verizon charges broadband customers on an annual contract a $99 early termination fee.  Television customers pay a $179 fee if they cancel before the year is up.

Some customers reacting to the cancellation fee suggest opting for the month-to-month service plan for an additional $20 a month if a move is imminent or if a customer isn’t sure they’ll keep the service.

Early termination fees are designed to capture and hold customers in place and are common in competitive markets where consumers bounce back and forth between new customer promotions.  Locking a customer in with a multi-year service agreement makes promotion-bouncing expensive, and gets customers to think twice before switching providers.

Verizon’s pricey exit charge could also reflect the company’s desire to recoup wiring expenses to bring fiber to and inside customer homes.

Most Verizon FiOS promotions we’ve seen lately expire January 16th.  That would suggest promotions starting the 17th will carry higher pricing.

A late December 2009 Verizon promotion. Note the expiration date.

Karl Bode notes the price hikes come even though costs are declining for major providers.

Keep in mind of course that these broadband hikes come as the cost of wholesale bandwidth and network hardware continues to drop. The television hikes, meanwhile, come despite the fact that Verizon and AT&T lobbied state lawmakers in dozens of states promising lower TV prices — if they were willing to reconfigure the video franchise system to make life easier on the baby bells.

It also appears that Verizon will be further expanding their free Wi-Fi offer to include customers on 15 Mbps tiers. The service previously was restricted to FiOS customers that subscribed to 20 Mbps service or faster. Like speed? It looks like Verizon’s symmetrical 35 Mbps tier, which is only available in select markets, will be showing up in all Verizon markets next year. The company’s 25/15 Mbps tier will officially become 25/25 (most customers report those speeds already).