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Bloomberg: Analyzing The Decision by Comcast to Drop Time Warner Cable Bid

Phillip Dampier April 23, 2015 Comcast/Xfinity, Competition, Consumer News, Online Video, Public Policy & Gov't, Video Comments Off on Bloomberg: Analyzing The Decision by Comcast to Drop Time Warner Cable Bid

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Comcast Plans to Drop Time Warner Cable Deal 4-23-15.flv[/flv]

Bloomberg News reports the decision has already been made, with an official announcement as early as tomorrow that Comcast’s acquisition of Time Warner Cable is over and dead. Bloomberg reporters analyze the reasons the deal collapsed and what has changed in America’s regulatory climate. (11:17)

FCC Staff Recommends Sending Comcast/TWC Merger to Seventh Level of ‘Deal-Killing’ Hearing Hell

Phillip Dampier April 23, 2015 Comcast/Xfinity, Competition, Consumer News, Public Policy & Gov't Comments Off on FCC Staff Recommends Sending Comcast/TWC Merger to Seventh Level of ‘Deal-Killing’ Hearing Hell

fat+lady+sings-featureThe staff at the Federal Communications Commission decided Wednesday to make a non-decision decision regarding the merger of Comcast and Time Warner Cable, and are recommending turning over the matter, including millions of pages of company documents and 14 months of investigative findings to an administrative law judge to sort out.

The procedural move, dubbed by many regulatory experts as a “deal-killer,” is known officially as a “hearing designation order.” But executives at Comcast know it really means the FCC is sending a strong signal it does not believe the merger is in the public interest.

The sudden recommendation by the FCC is seen by some observers as a coordinated move with the U.S. Department of Justice to let Comcast CEO Brian Roberts know the deal is in serious peril. In 2011, the Justice Department declared its opposition to another blockbuster merger between AT&T and T-Mobile, and the FCC announced its own opposition just a few hours later. The merger was declared dead shortly thereafter.

Placing the matter in the hands of an administrative law judge would mean a drawn-out, complicated hearing that would probably last longer than the 1995 trial of O.J. Simpson. Few companies bother. Even if Comcast decides it will fight, if the Justice Department successfully challenges the merger in court, the hearing designation order is moot and the merger fails.

Most observers expect Comcast will call off the merger before dragging the matter out in a court or hearing room.

The Wall Street Journal broke the story last night, calling it a “significant roadblock.”

Wall Street analysts were more direct.

“The fundamental problem with this transaction is there is no major constituency outside of Comcast and Time Warner Cable that want it to move forward,” said Rich Greenfield, analyst at BTIG Research, which has been predicting the deal falls apart. Mr. Greenfield noted that it would be a “very uphill battle” for Comcast to prove its case through the FCC’s hearing process that its merger is in the public interest. “Is it really worth spending more time and resources to fight the government?”

elephant“I’d never say anything was 100 percent dead, but this is in the 99 percent category,” Greenfield added. “It’s not every day that you have a transaction that is universally hated by everyone outside of Philadelphia,” where Comcast is based.

“No, the Comcast deal isn’t dead yet,” said telecom analyst Craig Moffett on Thursday. “But it’s a bit like an elephant that has been dropped out of an airplane. At around 10,000 feet, it is technically still alive. But it is falling fast, there’s not much you can do to stop it, and its odds of survival are pretty low when it hits the ground. Engaging in a war of attrition with the U.S. government is generally a bad idea and one rarely undertaken.”

The usually brash and confident Comcast was uncharacteristically muted in their response to the latest DOJ and FCC developments.

“As with all of our DOJ discussions in the past and going forward, we do not believe it is appropriate to share the content of those meetings publicly, and we, therefore, have no comment,” said a Comcast spokeswoman.

The apparent looming defeat of the Comcast/Time Warner Cable merger would be a testament to unified opposition from consumers, programmers, competitors, and emerging online video distributors that might one day fully challenge traditional cable television.

“In a democracy like this, you have gather your forces to say no to politically powerful people,” Mark Cooper, a Comcast opponent and research director at the Consumer Federation of America, told the Philadelphia Inquirer.

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNN Death sentence for Comcast merger 4-23-15.mp4[/flv]

A death sentence for the Comcast-Time Warner Cable merger? Analysts think so. CNN reports on the history of a merger deal that used to be “inevitable.” (1:42)

Plan B: What Will Comcast and Time Warner Cable Do Next?

Phillip Dampier April 23, 2015 Comcast/Xfinity, Competition, Consumer News, Public Policy & Gov't, Video Comments Off on Plan B: What Will Comcast and Time Warner Cable Do Next?

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Faber Report Comcast-TWC deal 4-23-15.flv[/flv]

Spelling the death knell for the deal, CNBC’s David Faber reports what will happen if the deal falls through. (3:38)

The FCC, the DOJ, and the Case for Blocking the Comcast-Time Warner Cable Deal

Phillip Dampier April 23, 2015 Comcast/Xfinity, Competition, Consumer News, Online Video, Public Policy & Gov't, Video Comments Off on The FCC, the DOJ, and the Case for Blocking the Comcast-Time Warner Cable Deal

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg FCC DOJ and the Case for Blocking Comcast-TWC Deal 4-23-15.flv[/flv]

Comcast earned the opposition of the Federal Communications Commission, along with the Department of Justice, as it seeks to complete a $45.2 billion acquisition of Time-Warner Cable. Bloomberg’s Alex Sherman Reports on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (2:17)

Senate Democrats Want to Cancel Comcast-Time Warner Cable Merger Deal

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is among six Democratic senators urging the Justice Dept. and the FCC to reject Comcast's merger deal with Time Warner Cable.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is among six Democratic senators urging the Justice Dept. and the FCC to reject Comcast’s merger deal with Time Warner Cable.

Six Democatic senators in states directly affected by the Comcast-Time Warner Cable merger want it canceled, and are urging regulators to reject the deal.

Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Al Franken (D-Minn.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), and Bernard Sanders (Ind.-Vt.) today signed a letter asking the Justice Department and the Federal Communications Commission to block the merger.

“We write to urge the FCC and DOJ to reject Comcast’s proposed acquisition,” reads the letter, organized by Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.). “Should the transaction survive … we believe that Comcast-TWC’s unmatched power in the telecommunications industry would lead to higher prices, fewer choices, and poorer quality services.”

The six senators went straight to the top, addressing Attorney General Eric Holder and Federal Communications Commission chairman Thomas Wheeler. At least one House member is also opposed. Rep. Tony Cardenas (D-Calif.), represents a district in Los Angeles served by Charter Communications and Time Warner Cable. Customers of both companies in Los Angeles would be served by Comcast if the merger is approved.

Comcast’s reputation precedes it, and Time Warner Cable customers have overwhelmingly told regulators they’d prefer to keep the current cable company many loathe instead of taking a chance with Comcast, rated the worst company in the United States by Consumerist.com.

“We have heard from consumers across the nation, as well as from advocacy groups, trade associations, and companies of all sizes, all of whom fear that the deal would harm competition across several different markets and would not serve the public interest,” the letter adds.

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