Goldman Sachs has reviewed the implications of Frontier Communications assuming control of millions of Verizon landline customers, and promptly downgraded their stock to a Neutral rating, telling investors the upcoming consolidation will hasten eroding revenues at Frontier.

“Consolidation of the underperforming acquired assets causes an immediate step-up in revenue erosion for FTR (-6.3% in 2010). In addition, the combined company’s initial EBITDA margins will be significantly below those of legacy FTR (pro forma of 48.0% in 2010, 470 bp below legacy FTR).”

Analysts added, “We expect longer term EBITDA margins of 50%-plus, driven by synergy realization (we forecast $450 mn/year by 2013), and moderating revenue declines, as FTR is able to bring a more localized focus to assets that were not a primary focus inside of a much larger Verizon entity. We forecast 2011/2012 FCF of $950 mn/$921 mn, as synergies and margin expansion only partially offset continued (but moderating) revenue erosion.”

In English, that means Frontier will benefit from its larger customer base in reducing expenses on a per-customer basis, and could become a big enough player to realize some benefits from rolling out services to a larger number of customers nationwide, but those benefits will be tempered by the ongoing loss of revenue as customers dump Frontier landlines for wireless and, where available, switch to a cable modem product to get better speeds and consistent service that Frontier DSL does not provide.  Losing that 5 GB monthly usage allowance won’t hurt either.

Frontier is betting a good deal of the company on expanding broadband service in its largely rural service areas, where many Americans are still stuck relying on dial-up or satellite fraudband, the service that promises a broadband experience but doesn’t come close to actually delivering one.

As long as Frontier doesn’t face competition in its markets, it can deliver 1-3 Mbps DSL service for up to $50 a month and bank those profits as a firewall against ongoing loss of landline revenue.  But if new players arrive, such as LTE wireless, WiMax, cable, or municipal fiber, Frontier’s business plan could go awry in a hurry.

Frontier also continues to pin its hopes on its enormous payout of dividends — sometimes exceeding 12 percent.  The stock is currently the best dividend payer in the S&P 500.  With dependable dividends and the ability to throw back free cash to investors, shareholders can’t ask for anything more.  In the first quarter alone, free cash flow amounted to $152 million and the company paid a dividend to shareholders representing 52 percent of that amount.  That’s $152 million Frontier won’t be spending to upgrade their service or have on hand to pay down debt.

For independent legacy landline providers like Frontier, reducing that dividend could spell disaster for the company’s stock price. Even investors understand this, which is why these kinds of cautionary notes are often attached to coverage about the company:

A cautionary note: telecoms companies with large fixed line exposure generally yield high dividends presently because investors do not believe their revenues and income levels are sustainable as people continue to substitute mobile phones for fixed lines.

West Liberty, Iowa is home of Liberty Communications

One of the side effects of insatiable telecom industry consolidation is that hard-working, honest, and consumer-friendly providers are swept up by corporate machinery that ends up providing Americans with the least amount of service for the highest possible price.  Remarkably, there are still some top-shelf independent providers out there that actually stand with their customers, fighting to bring better broadband service to everyone in their service areas.

A letter to the editor in the West Liberty Index caught my eye.  It chastised the Federal Communications Commission for its plans to treat rural Americans as second class broadband citizens with speed goals 25 times slower than those enjoyed by their urban cousins.  The FCC, the writer wrote, was simply not going far enough for consumers.  What was so remarkable about the letter?  It was signed by an Internet Service Provider — Jerry Melick, manager of Liberty Communications.

What would happen if the federal government decided that city roads, bridges and infrastructure should be better-constructed and more efficient than the roads in rural America? What about if the policy-makers determined that urban consumers should be able to get where they are going and get what they need faster than rural consumers? A new government plan intends to make that true of our nation’s information superhighway — the Internet. And, while it is not the highway coming into town, as rural consumers, we should still be very concerned.

[…]

The FCC’s plan will make rural Americans second class citizens in the new broadband world, because it establishes a speed goal for rural areas that is 25 times slower than for urban areas. Shouldn’t rural residents have access to the same broadband services as our larger towns and cities? Despite the construction of our state of the art Fusion network, we still face the challenge of how to bring broadband to our rural customers living outside of the communities of West Branch and West Liberty. Without a National Broadband Plan that supports further investment in rural areas, this will be difficult if not impossible to accomplish.

Melick supports broadband reform efforts at the FCC and changing the Universal Service Fund to provide assistance to companies like his, serving rural eastern Iowa, to build out its fiber to the home Fusion network to nearly every resident in its service area.  That’s a refreshing change of pace from the usual rhetoric from AT&T, Frontier, Verizon, and others.

Liberty Communications began service as the independent West Liberty Telephone Company in 1899.  It delivered telephone service for more than 100 years until January 2008, when the company announced it was going to construct its own fiber to the home network to provide television, telephone, and broadband service to its customers.  The Fusion network would expand later that year to start construction in nearby West Branch, the birthplace of Herbert Hoover, the nation’s 31st president.  By April 2009 the fiber network offered a true triple play package of services to customers in both cities. Fusion broadband customers can buy up to 20/2 Mbps service from Liberty.  For the rest of its service area, Liberty still relies on DSL service providing up to 3 Mbps, but believes fiber is the future for all of its customers.

The only question remaining is when forward-thinking policies at the FCC will be enacted to help that goal?

Time Warner Cable CEO Glenn Britt told Wall Street the company is backing AT&T’s decision to cease unlimited access to its wireless data services.

“In most businesses when usage goes up, that’s a good thing because people pay more,” Glenn Britt, Time Warner Cable’s chief executive officer, said at a Sanford C. Bernstein Wall Street investor conference Friday in New York. “It’s going to get the industry better aligned with consumer behavior.”

But Britt also said AT&T’s decision was “more sensible than when we did it,” referring to the company’s April 2009 aborted experiment to charge customers up to three times as much for broadband service with a consumption billing scheme that got a hostile response from consumers.

Britt was speaking about the network capacity constraints that wireless data networks have that do not compare with the much wider pipeline available to wired provides like Time Warner Cable.  Britt cited AT&T’s still-exclusive iPhone as being the single most significant factor in AT&T’s decision.

Britt told Business Week that “at the time” consumption “pricing was needed to maintain the expense and expansion of the network.”

But consumer advocates suggested the company targeted its overcharging experiment in cities where customers didn’t have strong competitive alternatives.  That was particularly the case in Rochester, N.Y. and Greensboro, N.C., where alternative broadband meant significantly slower telephone company DSL service.  In the case of Rochester, that service included a monthly 5GB usage allowance in Frontier Communications’ Acceptable Use Policy.

Without equivalent competing alternatives, broadband consumers would be trapped in a broadband backwater with significantly worse service than neighboring cities.

Despite Britt’s acknowledgment that his company backed off because of strong consumer opposition, he’s still willing to talk about bringing the overcharging scheme back, telling Business Week, “Exactly how it works and what the PR around it will be is something we can talk about.”

[Note: We will have some audio up soon. — Editor]

Latvia is celebrating today with the news it has the world’s second fastest broadband service, now beaten only by South Korea.

According to Ookla, which released speed measurement test results this week, the Baltic state in northeastern Europe achieved second place with a speed index of 24.41 Mbps, ahead of Moldova (21.63 Mbps), Japan (20.43 Mbps) and Sweden (19.95 Mbps).

Latvia has come a long way from its former days as a Soviet Socialist Republic.  The country declared its independence March 3, 1991 and adopted a parliamentary democracy.  Latvia maintains close economic ties with the United States and Scandinavian countries, and has rapidly sought its future within the European Community, distancing itself from Russia.  Today Latvia is a member of both the European Union and NATO.

Like other Baltic republics Lithuania and Estonia, Latvia has undergone a complete telecommunications transformation.  Out went the old Soviet-era telephone exchanges with antiquated copper wire, and in came optical fiber, especially in the nine major cities within Latvia’s administrative divisions.  Latvia’s economic planning heartily endorsed broadband service as a major economic driver, and the country and its citizens depend heavily on its broadband networks for entertainment, banking, business, education, and facilitating health care.

As a result, broadband is plentiful, fast, and remarkably inexpensive, especially in cities.  In rural communities, parts of Latvia still rely on older DSL technology delivered over traditional phone lines, but the country has plans for universal optical fiber as finances allow.  Meanwhile, widespread wireless mobile networks provide Europe’s least expensive cell service, with a charge averaging just four cents per minute to make and receive calls.

Latvia’s dominant broadband provider is Lattelecom, co-owned by the Latvian government and Sweden’s TeliaSonera AB.  Its broadband packages stun the rest of Europe and North America.

For customers in Riga, Jurmala, Jelgava, Daugavpils, Valmiera, and Ventspils districts, fiber optic broadband delivers service up to 200 Mbps upstream/downstream for just under $26.02 per month.  At that price, they also include a guarantee that speeds will always be above 30/20 Mbps.

Lattelecom's broadband tiers. In order, in U.S. dollars -- $13.80, $17.29, $20.78, and $26.02, all without a service contract.

Lattelecom is also introducing a 500Mbps service shortly.  There are additional substantial discounts for expectant mothers, educators, and the disabled.  For those too distant to access the fiber network, a DSL package up to 10Mbps with unlimited telephone calling (including international long distance) costs $37.45 per month.

The Baltic press has run with the success story of the region’s broadband providers, especially in light of the continued decline in scores for broadband in the United States, which has now fallen to 26th place (10.15 Mbps), and the United Kingdom, 33rd (7.71 Mbps).  Canada came in at 32nd (7.92 Mbps).

The most dramatic improvements in broadband continue in eastern Europe, particularly in the Republic of Moldova, its next door neighbor Romania and Bulgaria.  South Korea maintains its world-leader status.

Among the worst performers: Haiti, Lebanon, El Salvador, Afghanistan, Guatemala, Zimbabwe, Yemen, Mali, and Sudan.