A Wall Street research firm is asking questions about the “mixed messages” AT&T is sending consumers over its broadband offerings.

Ovum Research senior analyst Kamalini Ganguly said AT&T’s fiber to the home (FTTH) network in Austin — set to upgrade customers to 1Gbps next year — is likely to confuse AT&T and its shareholders over the future direction of AT&T’s current fiber to the neighborhood (FTTN) upgrade effort, dubbed Project VIP.

Having spent eight years deploying the U-verse FTTN service, a year ago AT&T chose to expand household coverage and upgrade speeds. That effort, called Project VIP, is still ongoing and until now has reflected AT&T’s projection that 45Mbps downstream (and 6Mbps upstream) should be good enough for the majority of its customers.

AT&T says it intends to boost part of its Project VIP footprint to 75Mbps or 100Mbps with VDSL2 vectoring, but the extent of this is unknown. It has also deployed a small amount of GPON FTTH in greenfield markets, typically designed to support 80–100Mbps to each household. Also as part of Project VIP, it plans to reach 1 million businesses with symmetric 1Gbps FTTH.

However, the GigaPower offering in Austin will be AT&T’s first 300Mbps or 1Gbps mass-market FTTH offering targeting consumers, not just businesses, in a major market. It is also a symmetric offering, meaning upstream will be 1Gbps as well. Those speeds are far higher than what Project VIP will deliver to the majority of consumers. The jump from 45/6Mbps to 1/1Gbps for consumers raises questions around its strategy. The cost issue looms large. Deploying 1Gbps point-to-point FTTH will continue to cost much more than GPON FTTH, which in turn still costs a lot more than FTTN – even with vectoring. AT&T needs to explain better what has changed from last year in the business case for FTTH over FTTN.

Wall Street is asking questions because AT&T has repeatedly denied its fiber project in Austin has anything to do with Google’s intention to offer a similar fiber network in Austin next year and everything to to do with its general broadband strategy. There is increasing skepticism about AT&T’s veracity on that point, particularly after AT&T announced pricing that was suspiciously similar to what Google charges its fiber customers in Kansas City and is likely to charge in Austin. Ovum’s researchers also took special note of AT&T’s intention to “examine its customers’ browsing habits in order to generate incremental revenues with targeted ads and commercial offers.”

There is evidence Google is proving a growing market disruptor, turning cable and telco industry pricing models upside down where the search engine giant threatens to compete. Industry plans to charge premium prices for incrementally faster broadband speed tiers is at risk with Google’s gigabit offer, priced at just $70 a month. Comcast charges up to $300 a month for considerably less speed. Community owned fiber broadband providers are increasingly adopting Google’s pricing model themselves. EPB in Chattanooga reduced the price of its 1Gbps tier from $300 to $70 earlier this year.

“By accepting a ceiling of $70, AT&T may be making it harder to break even,” writes Ganguly. “We may see lower prices cascading down for all broadband services. AT&T runs the risk of de-valuing its own broadband business and ultimately that of others too. On a more positive note, demand for 1Gbps was seen as questionable when prices were unaffordable for consumers and when multiple HD streams can be supported by 40–50Mbps. With these price levels however, demand may spike and boost the business case for 1Gbps.”

Rural Norway is getting a broadband upgrade. Out goes last century’s DSL service and in comes gigabit fiber to the home service for villages and towns that American providers would consider unprofitable to serve.

Despite the harsh winter conditions, Altibox has already begun work installing the new fiber network in the fjord and mountain district of Hjelmeland on Norway’s west coast. The aim is to offer a fiber optic connection to each of the 2,800 residents and 1,000 seasonal vacation homeowners who want one by the end of 2016.

Hjelmeland
Photo by: Bjarte Sorensen

Installation has already begun in the fjord and mountain district. The first customers will be online by the first half of 2014. At launch, customers will be offered a package including 1,000/1,000Mbps Internet access, cable TV, and a phone line with calling and feature package for around $165 a month, considered steep for Europe but not unusual in high cost service areas.

With its widely spaced buildings and vacation homes, Hjelmeland is perhaps one of the most challenging districts in Norway to install a fiber-optic network, according to Toril Nag of Altibox.

“This project will set a new standard for what it is possible to achieve when local government, local residents and the service provider all work towards a common goal,” Nag said. “In our assessment, there are currently only a few households that are situated so far from the trunk cable that it would not make economic sense to invest in a fiber connection.”

Not every resident can get broadband service as the district relies heavily on DSL, which underperforms in rural areas. Fiber optics solves the problem distance creates for high-speed copper-based DSL service and is cheaper to maintain in a district known for its difficult terrain and rugged character.

Altibox is using Hjelmeland as a rural broadband laboratory to learn more about how the company can profitably offer fiber optic broadband in higher cost areas. Eventually every Altibox customer across Norway will get gigabit speeds from the provider.

Norway is rushing ahead of North America in broadband deployment and speed. The government has set a target for every resident to have access to a minimum of 100Mbps service by 2017. The European Union has been less demanding, seeking 100Mbps service for at least 50 percent of subscribers by 2020.”We can look forward to an incredibly exciting year,” said Hjelmeland’s mayor, Trine Danielsen. “We believe that the installation of the most advanced data-communications infrastructure in Norway will make us an even more attractive area to live in for people of all ages.

“In the long-term, for example, the fiber-optic network could enable our older residents to live at home for longer, with the help of smart-house technology and new self-help solutions,” she added. “In addition, the new fiber-optic network will boost business development throughout the district, and provide a strong platform on which to build for both existing business enterprises and brand new ones.”

AT&T this month signed up their 10 millionth customer to U-verse High Speed Internet service, surpassing Verizon FiOS as the nation’s biggest telephone company supplier of broadband, television, and telephone service. Coinciding with that success, AT&T is raising prices for U-verse, despite AT&T’s record earnings from the fiber to the neighborhood service, now accounting for $1 billion a month in revenue.

AT&T is protecting its broadband flank by convincing current DSL customers to switch to higher-speed U-verse broadband as the network upgrade reaches into more homes across AT&T’s service areas. In the last quarter U-verse picked up 655,000 new broadband customers nationwide, many upgraded from traditional DSL. Where AT&T has not invested in U-verse upgrades and cable competition exists, results are not as good. AT&T lost 26,000 DSL customers last quarter, most moving to cable broadband.

“This latest milestone shows how U-verse is helping transform AT&T into a premier IP broadband company,” said Lori Lee, senior executive vice president, AT&T Home Solutions. As of the third quarter of this year, total U-verse high-speed Internet subscribers represented about 60 percent of all wireline broadband subscribers, compared with 43 percent in the year-earlier quarter.

Verizon FiOS, in comparison, has signed up just 5.9 million customers FiOS Internet subscribers on its stalled fiber optic network. Most Verizon broadband customers with no FiOS in their future either stick with DSL service or, increasingly, switch to a cable competitor for faster speeds.

Some of AT&T’s strongest U-verse growth came from its TV package. At least 265,000 cable and satellite cord-cutters looking for a better deal switched to U-verse TV in the last three months, a gain from 198,000 at the same time last year. That’s the second-best quarterly gain ever. A total of 5.3 million AT&T customers subscribe to U-verse TV.

Much of the growth has come from AT&T’s investment in expanding U-verse to new areas. Project Velocity IP is a three-year, $14 billion plan to upgrade AT&T’s wireless and wired broadband networks. AT&T has added almost 2.5 million more homes to its broadband footprint so far this year and hopes to expand broadband availability to reach about 57 million customers by the end of 2015.

Although $14 billion is a significant investment, AT&T has spent considerably more on its shareholders. John Stephens, AT&T’s chief financial officer told Wall Street analysts AT&T has bought back 684 million shares of stock that will save the company more than $1.2 billion in future dividend payouts.  Combined with its dividend payout, AT&T has handed shareholders $18 billion so far this year and more than $40 billion since the beginning of 2012. AT&T expects to spend $20 billion on wireless and wireline network improvements in 2014.

AT&T’s speed upgrades have also not run as smoothly as AT&T claims. Efforts to increase speeds to 45Mbps in 79 markets has had mixed results with a significant number of customers complaining they cannot get qualified for the faster speeds because of infrastructure problems with AT&T’s network. The company still says it is on track to offer 75 and 100Mbps speed tiers in the future and is building a fiber to the home network in Austin to compete with Google.

Many customers who have been with AT&T for more than a year are learning better service does not come for free. AT&T has filed rate increases for its television service beginning Jan. 26, 2014 for customers not on a pricing promotion. The monthly price for the following U-verse TV service plans will increase $3, along with fee hikes for local stations and equipment, bringing AT&T at least $15 million in extra revenue each month:

• U-family to $62;
• U200 to $77;
• U200 Latino to $87;
• U300 to $92;
• U300 Latino to $102;
• U450 to $124;
• and U450 Latino to $134.
• Grandfathered plans also will increase $3: U100 to $64 or $69, depending on when first ordered; and U400 to $119.

• The monthly price of each non-DVR TV receiver will increase from $7 to $;
• Beginning on February 1, 2014, the Broadcast TV Surcharge will increase $1 to $2.99 per month to recover a portion of the amount local broadcasters charge AT&T to carry their channels.

Those customers who have a U-verse TV pricing promotion will continue to receive the promotional benefit until the applicable promotion ends or expires.  Customers are being notified of these changes via bill messaging occurring in November and December and a reminder in January and February 2014.  In addition, customers will be notified of these changes online at www.att.net/uversepricechange and att.com/uversesupport.

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/ATT U-verse with GigaPower — Reactions 11-13.mp4[/flv]

AT&T is trying to get ahead of Google by advertising AT&T U-verse with GigaPower, a 1,000Mbps fiber to the home service promised in Austin sometime in the future. (0:30)

Cincinnati Bell is an island in the middle of a sea of AT&T — offering over 258,000 southwestern Ohio residents and businesses access to a fiber to the home network that has kept customer disconnects down and broadband speeds up.

Now the phone company says it is ready for any speed increases on tap from competitor Time Warner Cable and has the capacity to bring gigabit speeds to Cincinnati as soon as enough customers ask. But first it has to expand its footprint.

The company has plans to bring Fioptics to 35 percent of Cincinnati by the end of this year, according to Leigh Fox, chief technology officer for Cincinnati Bell. The company has successfully upgraded its fiber network to offer 53,000 more homes a fiber alternative to Time Warner Cable during the first nine months of this year. At least 29 percent of Cincinnati residents have cut Time Warner Cable’s cord at least once, trying the fiber to the home service.

Cincinnati Bell wants a 50-70 percent penetration rate in the city, defined as the percentage of customers who have subscribed at least once.

“I am pretty confident on returns and we do have to hit a certain metric,” said Fox. “As an example, we just built out my neighborhood over the summer where in the first two weeks we had 23 percent penetration and after a month we had 43 percent penetration.”

Unlike AT&T which confines U-verse to larger population areas, Cincinnati Bell is continuing to invest in traditional ADSL/2+ service for the nearly half million customers throughout its service area that cannot get Fioptics service yet. The company claims the majority of these customers can now buy 10Mbps or faster DSL service, making Cincinnati Bell competitive with Time Warner Cable across the region. Higher, stable speeds are the phone company’s best defense against DSL disconnects. Most cable broadband growth comes at the expense of telephone company DSL customers leave behind.

Currently, the majority of Cincinnati Bell’s “non-techie” fiber customers are satisfied with 20Mbps service. Time Warner Cable is planning to offer up to 100Mbps in the near future, but Fox noted Fioptics has the capability to exceed those speeds ten times over, and said if enough customers want 1Gbps speed, Cincinnati Bell will offer it.