Verizilla

The Communications Workers of America has a new, decidedly low-budget video decrying a spectrum swap between America’s largest cable companies and Verizon Communications that will leave Verizon Wireless stores pitching cable television service from one of Verizon’s cable company competitors.

To the CWA, this is nothing less than the birth of Verizilla, a new monster of a telecommunications company that has capitulated on competing with Big Cable and will instead devour the wireless communications marketplace for itself.  The CWA interest is obvious: many of its employees are responsible for constructing and maintaining Verizon’s now-stalled FiOS fiber to the home network.

From the CWA:

The deal, struck behind the closed doors of America’s corporate boardrooms, poses a threat to consumers and workers. If it goes through, it will be the death knell for competition between cable and telecom companies. Verizon Wireless, Time Warner, Comcast, and other cable companies will become a giant, unregulated quasi-monopoly. Verizon will have no incentive to challenge cable by building FiOS into new areas — meaning less competition, consumer choice, and higher prices for consumers.

Less FiOS also means fewer jobs building, maintaining, servicing, and installing the network. This deal will create a corporate behemoth that will use exclusive quad-play market power to shrink its future workforce.

Worst of all, Verizon Wireless and the cable companies are refusing to come clean about the details of the deal. Even as the FCC and Department of Justice review it, we still don’t know what it means for consumers or workers.

The CWA has so far collected more than 135,000 signatures on its petition opposing the current form of the deal. 

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Verizilla.flv[/flv]

America, say hello to Verizilla, wreaking reduced investment havoc on Verizon service areas across the northeastern United States.  (2 minutes)

While a downturn economy continues to afflict middle and lower income America, it doesn’t seem to be doing much harm to Time Warner Cable’s profits.

America’s second largest cable operator saw profits jump more than $150 million higher to $564 million last quarter, compared to $392 million at the same time the year before.  Time Warner’s revenue grew by 4% to $5 billion in the fourth quarter alone.  In fact, the company is performing so well, executives announced they would return $3.3 billion in earnings to shareholders through share buybacks and dividend payouts, in addition to the forthcoming $4 billion share repurchase program.  Wall Street liked what they saw, boosting shares 7% after the company posted its quarterly and annual results on its website.

Time Warner’s biggest success story remains its broadband service, which consistently delivers the company new subscribers and has helped offset the loss of video subscribers, numbered at an additional 129,000 who “cut the cord” in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Time Warner Cable earned $1.148 billion in revenue from broadband in the last quarter, an increase of 8.6% over last year.  For 2011, the cable operator earned $4.476 billion selling residential Internet access, also representing an 8.6% growth rate over earnings across 2010.

The company attributed this to “growth in high-speed data subscribers and increases in average revenues per subscriber (due to both price increases and a greater percentage of subscribers purchasing higher-priced tiers of service).”

The increased costs incurred by Time Warner Cable to upgrade and expand their network and cable systems were well offset by the aforementioned price increases and subscriber upgrades.  The company increased capital expenditures to $942 million in the last quarter.  Results over the full year show just a 0.2% overall increase in capital investment, now at $2.937 billion.  System upgrades, Time Warner’s plans to move their systems to all-digital cable television, the ongoing rollout of DOCSIS 3.0, new home security and automation services, and investment in online video and data centers are included in these costs. But a more significant reason for the increase comes from the company’s ongoing expansion into business services, which requires wiring more office buildings for cable.

Britt

Time Warner Cable CEO Glenn Britt led off the conference call with investors with an explanation for the increased expenses.

“We plan to continue our aggressive growth in business services by expanding product offerings, growing our sales force, improving productivity and increasing our serviceable footprint. This means continued investment, both in people and in capital,” Britt said. “Projects include expansion of our content delivery network, which powers our IP video capability, our 2 international headends, completion of DOCSIS 3.0 deployment, and conversion to all-digital in more cities. We expect to be able to accomplish this while maintaining the capital spending of the last 2 years — that is, between $2.9 billion and $3 billion, which represents a continued decline in capital intensity.”

Nothing in Time Warner Cable’s financial disclosures provides any evidence to justify significant changes in their pricing model for broadband, which currently delivers flat rate, unlimited service to customers at different speed rates and price points.  In fact, the company’s investments in DOCSIS 3.0 upgrades, which can support faster broadband speeds and a more even customer experience, have already paid off with subscriber upgrades.

Robert D. Marcus, president and chief operating officer, noted subscribers are increasingly considering faster (and more profitable) broadband tiers.

“Once again, high-speed data net adds over-indexed to our higher-speed tiers,” Marcus noted. “Roughly 3/4 of residential broadband net adds were Turbo or higher. And DOCSIS 3.0 net adds accelerated for the eighth consecutive quarter to an all-time high of 54,000.”

Time Warner’s biggest challenges continue to be the current state of the economy, which has made subscribers much more sensitive to pricing and rate increases, and cord cutting traditional cable television service.

“One group is extremely price-conscious, perhaps due in part to the ongoing economic malaise,” Britt said. “The other group is willing and able to pay for more features and service. We’re going to focus more attention on products and services that best meet each group’s needs rather than pursuing traditional one-size-fits-all solutions.”

That is clearly evident in the company’s bundled service options, including increasingly aggressive discounted pricing for new customers and for those threatening to leave and Time Warner’s super-premium Signature Home service, which delivers super-profits.  Average revenue from Signature Home customers averages $230 a month.  Traditional “triple play” customers who buy phone, Internet, and cable service only bring the cable company an average of $150 a month.

The company’s plans for 2012 do not include a specific statement about implementing an Internet Overcharging scheme like usage billing or usage caps.  But it is unlikely such an announcement would be made explicitly at an earnings announcement.  In the last quarter, Stop the Cap! reported comments from chief financial officer Irene Esteves that the company was still very interested in the concept of selling broadband with usage pricing as a “wonderful hedge” against cord-cutting.

Esteves told a UBS conference she believes usage-based pricing for Time Warner Cable broadband will become a reality sooner or later.  Charging “heavy users” more would already be familiar to consumers used to paying higher prices for heavy use of other services, and she claimed light users would have the option of paying less.

But despite favorable reception to the idea of usage pricing by Wall Street, Esteves acknowledged the company’s past experiments in usage pricing didn’t go as planned, and she suggested the company will introduce usage pricing “the right way rather than quickly.”

Other developments and highlights

• 

  Time Warner faces Verizon's $500 rebate offers in NY City

  Time Warner Beats Up DSL: Time Warner Cable’s most lucrative source for new broadband customers comes at the expense of phone companies still relying on DSL to deliver broadband service.  As DSL speeds have failed to stay competitive with cable broadband, the cable operator has successfully lured price-sensitive DSL customers with attractive ongoing price promotions delivering a year of standard 10/1Mbps cable Internet access for $29.99 a month, often less expensive than the total price of DSL service that frequently delivers slower speeds.

• Stalled Verizon FiOS deployment has limited the amount of competition Time Warner faces from fiber optics to just 12% of the company’s service area.  Where competition does exist, especially in New York State, Time Warner has had to stay aggressive to retain customers with deeply-discounted retention deals to keep up with Verizon’s high value rebate gift cards and new customer offers.  AT&T now provides U-verse competition in about 25% of Time Warner’s service area, but like satellite, AT&T U-verse pricing is less heavily discounted.
• Retention pricing and new customer deals deliver lower prices than ever.  In November, Time Warner started selling a triple play offer for $89.99 a month that includes DVR service and now also includes deep discounts or free 90 day trials of premium movie channels. That is $10 less than the same time last year.
• Premium movie channels continue to take a major hit as subscribers try to reduce their bills, especially after Time Warner began increasing rates on those networks.  HBO now sells for as much as $15 a month in many areas.  Time Warner Cable hopes to ‘revitalize’ premium movie channels with online video services like HBO and Max Go and promotional discounts.
• Long-standing customers of Time Warner’s “triple play” package received a “thank-you gift” — free voice-mail in 2011, something that will continue in 2012.
• Customers signing up for Time Warner’s premium-priced Wideband (50/5Mbps) service ($99/month) are being offered free phone service to sweeten the deal.

What to Expect in 2012

• Time Warner is moving forward to create its own Regional Sports Network for southern California;
• Los Angeles will continue to see large-scale expansion of Time Warner’s growing Wi-Fi network, available for free to premium broadband customers, with thousands of new access points on the way;
• The cable company will introduce Wi-Fi service in other, yet-to-be-announced cities in 2012, with up to 10,000 access points planned.
• Time Warner will be making its “digital phone” product more attractive with lower prices and more features, especially in product bundles, as consumers increasingly discard landlines;
• Expect to see the end of analog cable television in a growing number of Time Warner Cable areas, requiring customers to use new equipment (initially provided free) to continue watching on older televisions and those without existing set top boxes.
• Time Warner will continue to expand its “TV Everywhere” project to include live streaming TV on smartphones, video game consoles, computers, and more.  On-demand programming will be available as well sometime this year across all platforms.
• A nationwide channel re-alignment will move subscribers to consistent channel numbers across the country, in part based on grouping them together into “genres.”  Many areas already have digital cable channels arranged this way, but now they will be consistent from coast-to-coast.
• Time Warner will complete DOCSIS 3 deployment in all areas this year.
• The company is moving to introduce 2-hour service call windows almost everywhere, and 1-hour windows and weekend appointments in some markets.  Several cities now allow customers to select specific times for service appointments.
• Self-install kits will become increasingly available for different products, allowing customers to install equipment themselves;
• Time Warner’s IntelligentHome home security, monitoring, and automation product will expand beyond its launch markets (Syracuse and Rochester, N.Y., Charlotte, N.C. and Los Angeles/Southern Calif.).  The product currently has customers in the thousands, considered relatively small.  But Time Warner has learned subscribers are using the service in surprising ways, which will let them adapt their marketing.  Among the most popular features: remotely watching your pets at home.

Most Memorable Quote: “I think, more than anything else, our pricing strategy is dictated by what the marketplace will bear as opposed to what our underlying cost structure is.” — Robert Marcus, president and chief operating officer, Time Warner Cable

Time Warner Cable customers in southern California face substantial rate increases in 2012, including a budget-busting $49.99 service call fee to install increasingly expensive cable service.

The bad news is arriving in customer bills this month, with substantial price hikes for cable television —  including a 27.4% increase for the package that only includes local broadcast channels.  Time Warner Cable blames increasing programming costs for the rate increases, which are several times higher than the official rate of inflation — 3.5%.  Most customers with bundled television, telephone, and Internet service will see a smaller increase on the magnitude of a few dollars, but for those picking and choosing only a few items from Time Warner’s menu, the price tag for individual services will be higher.

The largest rate increase comes when the cable company sends a truck to a home or business.  Time Warner was charging $32.99, but will now charge $49.99 — a 51.5% increase.  The cable company has also been pushing its home networking Wi-Fi option, and will now charge $69.99 to install it, up from $49.99.

Time Warner Cable spokesman Jim Gordon tells the Los Angeles Times not everyone will pay those prices.  Certain promotions may lower those rates, or waive them altogether.  But the company offered little explanation to justify such a major price hike.

One of the cable company’s competitors, DirecTV, scoffed at Time Warner’s rate increase, noting the satellite company only raised prices an average of 4% earlier this year, and anticipates a similar increase in 2012.

The effect of the latest round of rate hikes is likely to drive even more customers to cancel or cut back on cable services.  An increasing number are dropping cable television service altogether, relying on broadband for video entertainment.  The cable industry’s response to cord-cutting has been a combination of increased online viewing options for cable-TV customers and usage caps and overlimit fees on broadband that either discourage online viewing or attempts to profit from it.  Time Warner Cable executives said as recently as December they plan to eventually introduce “usage based billing” of Internet service “the right way rather than quickly.”

Time Warner Cable intends to implement a series of rate increases for 2012 across many of their service areas, beginning with a 4% rate hike for their cable television service that will take effect in December.

A cable company memo received by Stop the Cap! indicates this isn’t likely to be the only rate increase from the cable operator, with possible rate adjustments for broadband and phone products to be announced at a later date.  The cable television portion of your bill will increase because of what the company calls “dramatically higher programming costs, additional programming and features, and continued investment in the company’s network and customer service operations.”

Some examples of the new rates¹, which will vary slightly in different service areas, includes new pricing for the company’s DVR box in some regions:

• Digital Cable (was $72.99) $77.49
• Talk & Surf (was $86.99) $89.94
• Watch & Surf (was $118.99) $125.49
• Watch & Surf Plus (was $141.99) $148.49
• DVR Service (was $11.95) $12.95 (additional equipment rental charges may apply)

¹Time Warner Cable Maine

Customers currently on price protection agreements, term contracts, or special rate promotions will not be impacted by the rate increases until the expiration of their contract or promotion.  Customers will receive an official notification of the rate adjustment on their next billing statement.

Cablevision executives reported dismal financial numbers for the third quarter of this year, as the cable company lost 19,000 cable television customers while profits plummeted some 65% at the Bethpage, N.Y.-based company.

Not even 17,000 new broadband customers could erase the damaging losses incurred by Cablevision cord-cutting, some of it as a result of the cable operator’s damaging retransmission consent disputes that deprived viewers of popular local broadcast outlets and cable channels.  The company lost so much subscriber goodwill, company executives admitted they pared back an anticipated rate increase just to protect themselves from further customer defections.

Programming disputes like this one with WABC-TV and their parent company Disney caused more than a few Cablevision customers to head for the competition.

Cablevision, like Time Warner Cable before it, won’t admit that cable cord-cutting is responsible for what one investment bank fears could be the start of an “ex-growth” era in cable television.  Instead, Cablevision executives continue to blame the poor economy for subscription losses, as well as aggressive pricing competition from their biggest rival — Verizon FiOS.  Adding pressure is the relentless demand for higher programming fees, which directly translates into relentless annual rate increases for cable television service.

“With regard to programming [costs, they are] an issue and it is an expensive part of our business.  It is the single biggest cost item we have,” said Gregg G. Seibert, Cablevision’s chief financial officer and executive vice-president. “And the fact that retransmission consent became necessary from the eyes of broadcasters, particularly after the 2008 recession, has been flowing through our business, and there was a large step up [in fees]. I think that the overall rate of programming [costs] going forward will moderate to some extent naturally.”

Seibert called the aggressive retransmission consent fee disputes between broadcasters and cable operators evidence of the collapse of the traditional “free TV” business model.  Because ad revenues are down, broadcasters are increasingly dependent on fees charged to cable operators for permission to include their stations on the cable dial.  That means cable subscribers are increasingly subsidizing the broadcast television business.

Seibert

Seibert’s revelation came too late to stop some of the nation’s most visible retransmission consent battles between Cablevision and network-owned New York-area television stations and cable networks.  When Cablevision blacked out a local station showing coverage of the World Series during the last dispute, fed up customers decided to take their cable business to Verizon or a satellite TV provider.

Cablevision has been trying to lick their wounds ever since, launching increasingly aggressive pricing promotions and “free gift” offers to keep existing customers while trying to win back old ones.

“We’ve recently introduced an offer that includes a new Apple iPod Touch primarily for win back situations,” said Thomas M. Rutledge, chief operating officer.  “Selling for the Triple Play package of video, data, and voice is now at 74% and roughly half of this selling is for our new Ultimate Triple Play, which includes a new higher-priced Boost Plus [broadband] service and a wireless router.”

Cablevision achieves triple-play signups by heavily discounting the package for new and returning customers.  It also hopes to succeed with a ‘more for less’ pricing strategy, delivering new features and services without necessarily charging extra for all of them.  With discounts, free gifts, and additional services, Cablevision is getting some of their old customers back.

Selling faster broadband is a key component in Cablevision's strategy to attract more broadband customers. Boost Plus delivers 50/8Mbps service for an additional $14.95 a month.

“As of September 30, our win back total is more than 45% of customers who once tried Verizon FiOS,” Rutledge claims.

Rutledge noted Cablevision’s participation in the industry’s TV Everywhere online video initiative has grown even stronger with the recent agreement to provide Cablevision cable-TV customers free access to Turner-owned cable network programming.

Seibert admits the more competitive business environment and high profile programming disputes in suburban New York City are impacting profits.

“We had a few significant items in the quarter affecting our results including higher programing costs and higher sales in marketing as we continue to aggressively promote our products and services while revenue growth was essentially flat,” Seibert said.

Those challenges are creating a sense of unease on Wall Street regarding the cable business’ core product: cable television and the increasingly aggressive pricing promotions necessary to keep customers from disconnecting service.

“There is growing concern among the investor community about [the] whole [cable] industry going to ex-growth,” said Jason Bazinet from Citigroup.

Rutledge

“Programming costs are rising faster than video revenues,” Sanford C. Bernstein, an analyst for Craig Moffett, told the Wall Street Journal. “Unless there’s growth somewhere else in the business model, you’ve got the worst of all worlds: a slow-or no-growing business with lower margins.”

Rutledge outlined Wi-Fi and broadband enhancements as part of Cablevision’s priorities for the upcoming quarter:

“We’ve been building out a Wi-Fi network and we’ve had continuous subscriber utilization increases on that network.  We now have more than one-half-million devices out there that can use Wi-Fi and watch our full cable television service in the home.

“And we’re deploying a new Boost product with higher speed broadband, which includes a more sophisticated wireless router as part of that package.

“We think Wi-Fi is a major strategic part of our business. We think that we can continue to take advantage of that. We think our video product today as a result of Wi-Fi is a superior product to our competitors – all of our competitors, and we think that our data service is enhanced by the Wi-Fi outside the home, and we continue to try to build value for our customers and take market share.”

The cable company is already aggressively marketing its Boost Plus service, which delivers 50/8Mbps broadband for an additional charge of $14.95 a month on top of the standard broadband rate.