Cogeco’s disastrous investment in a Portuguese cable company may be the beginning of the end for the Canadian cable operator.  Cogeco, which primarily serves smaller communities in Ontario and Quebec, may eventually find itself the property of Rogers Communications, Inc., particularly if its messy overseas cable operation can be dispensed with soon.

The Financial Post suggests rumors of Cogeco’s increasing efforts to rid itself of Portugal’s Cabovisao could be a prelude to a bigger sale of its Canadian cable operation to Rogers.

Cogeco’s interest in Portugal’s cable industry came after the company determined there were limited opportunities to invest or acquire cable operations in the highly concentrated North American market.  In 2006, it spent $660 million to acquire Cabovisao, two years before Portugal felt some of the worst impacts of a global economic crisis that continues to this day.

Cogeco's financial mess in Portugal.

Portugal’s efforts to stabilize its economy have brought widespread salary reductions and tax increases, making luxuries like full-priced cable service untenable.  Subscribers have been canceling in droves, either because they found a better deal from a competitor, or because they could no longer afford the monthly bill.

Earlier this summer, Cogeco wrote-off its entire investment in Cabovisao and has been rumored to be shopping the cable system for a quick sale.

One analyst told the newspaper if Cabovisao is for sale, Cogeco may be perceived to be “throwing in the towel” on the strategy of investing abroad — and moreover, paving the way for a takeover by Rogers.

Rogers already holds a nearly one-third equity interest in Cogeco.  Being rid of Cabovisao could make Cogeco that much more attractive to Rogers, whose systems largely surround Cogeco’s operations.

The only thing remaining in the way of a wholesale takeover could be the Audet family, which controls the majority of shares in Cogeco.  Earlier this summer, it was clear the Audets had no interest in selling, but that may be changing with the unwinding of its international investment strategy.

Cablevision Systems may be engaged in a long term effort to position itself for a sale, some New York investment firms have come to believe.  The most likely buyer?  Time Warner Cable.

The bulk of Cablevision’s assets are located in several boroughs of New York, Long Island, New Jersey and Connecticut.  Virtually all of their service areas, outside of the acquisition of Bresnan Cable in the mountain west, are adjacent to Time Warner, making an acquisition by the nation’s second largest cable operator a natural fit.

This isn’t the first time rumors of a Cablevision sale have been floated.  The Dolan family has run the cable operator for decades, with family patriarch Charles Dolan still controlling a sizable interest in the company.  Barron’s notes the senior Dolan is currently in his 80s.  Son James, current president and CEO of Cablevision, seems more interested in his leadership role at Madison Square Garden, spun-off from Cablevision last year.

“I think the Dolans have positioned the company for a sale,” Mark Boyar, who heads Boyar Asset Management, told Barron’s.

Boyar points to Cablevision’s ongoing efforts to minimize their involvement in side businesses, such as MSG and cable networks like AMC, spun away from Cablevision on June 30.

Buyers like transactions to be simple and straightforward, and Cablevision’s operations increasingly meet both standards.

On its own, Cablevision’s growth opportunities come mostly from rate increases, which subscribers routinely complain about.  The company already enjoys the highest penetration rate among major cable operators and the highest average monthly revenue per subscriber — $150 a month vs. $113 for Time Warner Cable.  With a depressed economy and fierce competition from Verizon FiOS, growing the business (and the stock price) has become increasingly difficult in a maturing industry unlikely to attract new subscribers.

Among the only prospects for subscriber growth on the horizon comes from satellite TV subscribers.  But that alone may not be enough to keep investors satisfied, much less excited.  A sale could bring shareholders a massive return on their investment, particularly if a bidding war breaks out between likely buyers Time Warner Cable and Comcast.  Shareholders ultimately own the company, and should the Dolan family lose their love affair with cable, Cablevision and their subscribers will likely find themselves on the auction block.

Time Warner Cable intends to implement a series of rate increases for 2012 across many of their service areas, beginning with a 4% rate hike for their cable television service that will take effect in December.

A cable company memo received by Stop the Cap! indicates this isn’t likely to be the only rate increase from the cable operator, with possible rate adjustments for broadband and phone products to be announced at a later date.  The cable television portion of your bill will increase because of what the company calls “dramatically higher programming costs, additional programming and features, and continued investment in the company’s network and customer service operations.”

Some examples of the new rates¹, which will vary slightly in different service areas, includes new pricing for the company’s DVR box in some regions:

• Digital Cable (was $72.99) $77.49
• Talk & Surf (was $86.99) $89.94
• Watch & Surf (was $118.99) $125.49
• Watch & Surf Plus (was $141.99) $148.49
• DVR Service (was $11.95) $12.95 (additional equipment rental charges may apply)

¹Time Warner Cable Maine

Customers currently on price protection agreements, term contracts, or special rate promotions will not be impacted by the rate increases until the expiration of their contract or promotion.  Customers will receive an official notification of the rate adjustment on their next billing statement.

A Time Warner Cable customer in the East Village experiencing a cable, phone, and Internet outage Tuesday got an original excuse from a call center employee at the cable company:

The box that controls the cable, Internet, pretty much everything else for Time Warner Cable in my area of the East Village is located in the basement of a building. In order to service this box, Time Warner Cable needs to contact the super of the building and be let in.

The super of the building, according to the service rep, REFUSES TO LET TIME WARNER INSIDE.

“Why is he refusing?” I asked.

“He wants free cable,” the rep responded.

Apparently, Time Warner has tried to reason with the man, but he refuses to budge. Today, he’s refused to answer the door or his phone. He’s cut off all communication.

“It’s a very unusual situation,” the rep said.

The entire story of the hostage crisis is up on Adam Hunter’s blog, along with plenty of comments from fellow New Yorkers upset with the building superintendent, the cable operator, or both.

What made an unusual situation even stranger is the Time Warner employee actually gave out the address of the building where the standoff was occurring, with the not-much-of-a-stretch-notion that perhaps outraged customers might walk down the street and pay the hostage-taker a visit.

“How close are you to 2nd Avenue,” the representative asked.

“I live between 1st and 2nd, closer to 2nd. I’d love to go over there and try to speak with the super to help resolve this,” Hunter replied.

“Well,” the rep said, “I can’t see any reason I can’t give you the address.”

The drama attracted the attention of the Village Voice, who tracked down the alleged offender, only to be promptly hung up on, and a Time Warner representative who actually confirmed the whole story:

“It does appear that we had an issue with accessing the building where one of our nodes is located,” the representative told the newspaper.  “We did have to remind the landlord of city ordinance that requires us to have 24/7 access to our infrastructure.”

Regardless of who wanted what, Time Warner Cable customers experiencing the effects of several outages in lower Manhattan this week are entitled to service credits.  Just visit Time Warner’s New York City website, complete the e-mail form listing the day(s) you experienced service outages, and request credit accordingly.  Make sure you remind them of the services you have so you are properly credited.

Most cable operators are doing a better job of providing telephone service than traditional telephone companies, according to a new J.D. Power and Associates survey.

Among the worst providers across all regions were Frontier Communications, which scored dead last in the East and North Central regions, and cable operator Charter Communications, which won the lowest score overall for service in the western United States.  Cox delivered the most consistently reliable service across three of the four regions it serves, although it was beaten by Bright House Networks in the south.

The results:

The study measured customer satisfaction with both local and long distance telephone service in four regions throughout the United States. Five factors were examined to determine overall satisfaction: performance and reliability; cost of service; billing; offerings and promotions; and customer service.

Satisfaction with performance and reliability-the most influential factor contributing to overall satisfaction-has declined by 6 percent to an average of 7.4 (on a 10-point scale) in 2011 from 7.9 in 2011. Within this factor, satisfaction with the service provider’s ability to keep outages to a minimum has experienced the greatest decline.

“The brutal winter weather that plagued much of the country clearly took a toll on service levels,” said Frank Perazzini, director of telecommunications at J.D. Power and Associates. “In fact, the proportion of customers who contacted customer service to report an outage jumped to 21 percent in 2011 from 12 percent in 2010.”

According to Perazzini, a key driver for mitigating losses in satisfaction due to outages is effectively managing customer expectations regarding service restoration. On average, customers who experience an outage are advised that service will be restored within 30 hours, while actual service restoration time averages 25 hours. Overall satisfaction among customers whose service was restored approximately three hours earlier than the time quoted by the service provider averages 705 on a 1,000-point scale. In comparison, among customers whose service was restored three hours after the estimate given by the provider, satisfaction averages 591.

The study also finds that among customers who use an alternative phone service (for example, cellular or Internet service, rather than wireline), the proportion who replace wireline telephone calls with cell phone calls, texts and email remains relatively unchanged in 2011, compared with 2010. However, use of Internet calling services such as Skype or Vonage has increased to 21 percent in 2011 from 16 percent in 2010. Customers who use Internet calling services are significantly less satisfied with their telephone provider (622 on average, which is 14 index points below the industry average of 636) and are more likely to switch telephone providers (23% vs. the industry average of 16%).