A Wall Street research firm is asking questions about the “mixed messages” AT&T is sending consumers over its broadband offerings.

Ovum Research senior analyst Kamalini Ganguly said AT&T’s fiber to the home (FTTH) network in Austin — set to upgrade customers to 1Gbps next year — is likely to confuse AT&T and its shareholders over the future direction of AT&T’s current fiber to the neighborhood (FTTN) upgrade effort, dubbed Project VIP.

Having spent eight years deploying the U-verse FTTN service, a year ago AT&T chose to expand household coverage and upgrade speeds. That effort, called Project VIP, is still ongoing and until now has reflected AT&T’s projection that 45Mbps downstream (and 6Mbps upstream) should be good enough for the majority of its customers.

AT&T says it intends to boost part of its Project VIP footprint to 75Mbps or 100Mbps with VDSL2 vectoring, but the extent of this is unknown. It has also deployed a small amount of GPON FTTH in greenfield markets, typically designed to support 80–100Mbps to each household. Also as part of Project VIP, it plans to reach 1 million businesses with symmetric 1Gbps FTTH.

However, the GigaPower offering in Austin will be AT&T’s first 300Mbps or 1Gbps mass-market FTTH offering targeting consumers, not just businesses, in a major market. It is also a symmetric offering, meaning upstream will be 1Gbps as well. Those speeds are far higher than what Project VIP will deliver to the majority of consumers. The jump from 45/6Mbps to 1/1Gbps for consumers raises questions around its strategy. The cost issue looms large. Deploying 1Gbps point-to-point FTTH will continue to cost much more than GPON FTTH, which in turn still costs a lot more than FTTN – even with vectoring. AT&T needs to explain better what has changed from last year in the business case for FTTH over FTTN.

Wall Street is asking questions because AT&T has repeatedly denied its fiber project in Austin has anything to do with Google’s intention to offer a similar fiber network in Austin next year and everything to to do with its general broadband strategy. There is increasing skepticism about AT&T’s veracity on that point, particularly after AT&T announced pricing that was suspiciously similar to what Google charges its fiber customers in Kansas City and is likely to charge in Austin. Ovum’s researchers also took special note of AT&T’s intention to “examine its customers’ browsing habits in order to generate incremental revenues with targeted ads and commercial offers.”

There is evidence Google is proving a growing market disruptor, turning cable and telco industry pricing models upside down where the search engine giant threatens to compete. Industry plans to charge premium prices for incrementally faster broadband speed tiers is at risk with Google’s gigabit offer, priced at just $70 a month. Comcast charges up to $300 a month for considerably less speed. Community owned fiber broadband providers are increasingly adopting Google’s pricing model themselves. EPB in Chattanooga reduced the price of its 1Gbps tier from $300 to $70 earlier this year.

“By accepting a ceiling of $70, AT&T may be making it harder to break even,” writes Ganguly. “We may see lower prices cascading down for all broadband services. AT&T runs the risk of de-valuing its own broadband business and ultimately that of others too. On a more positive note, demand for 1Gbps was seen as questionable when prices were unaffordable for consumers and when multiple HD streams can be supported by 40–50Mbps. With these price levels however, demand may spike and boost the business case for 1Gbps.”

Time Warner Cable TV subscribers in Southern California can now access local over-the-air television signals on the company’s TWC TV app, expanding the lineup of hundreds of cable channels to now include the major network affiliates — a significant gap in the “TV Everywhere” app for most customers.

Residents in Los Angeles and San Diego join those in New York and Kansas City that can now receive local over the air programming on their home computer, tablet, game console, or Roku box. Time Warner Cable requires viewers to subscribe to both its television and broadband services to watch, and only from your home’s Wi-Fi network.

The service is designed to bring value to Time Warner’s cable TV package and offer subscribers the opportunity to watch cable programming without an additional set-top box. Current licensing restrictions keep Time Warner from offering most television programming while on the go, but the cable company is attempting to negotiate those rights when programming contracts come up for renewal.

The major networks are not waiting for cable operators to negotiate with them, however:

• ABC: The network’s Watch ABC app has been available since the spring and offers live streaming of the local ABC station in eight major markets including New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles. Viewers must live within the viewing area to watch;
• CBS: The network has purchased part ownership in Syncbak which specializes in digital content delivery, but the network has not announced plans for a streaming app;
• FOX: In addition to Hulu/+, FOX wants to adopt mobile broadcast technology using the Dyle Mobile platform, which allows device owners to receive over the air television with the use of a special add-on antenna;
• NBC: NBC will follow ABC and offer live viewing of local affiliates over an app starting in large cities early next year.

AT&T today announced it was selling off its residential wireline network in Connecticut to Stamford-based Frontier Communications for $2 billion in a deal that includes an expanded license for U-verse TV that could eventually be available to Frontier customers nationwide.

Frontier will assume control of the Southern New England Telephone Co. (SNET), a wholly owned subsidiary of AT&T, and its 2,700 employees and 900,000 telephone lines. Included in the deal is AT&T’s U-verse network in the state and the right to expand U-verse TV into all 27 states where Frontier provides service. The deal comes three years after Frontier paid $8.6 billion in stock and cash to buy landline operations in 14 states from Verizon Communications.

In a Stop the Cap! exclusive story published last year, we reported Frontier was interested in acquiring licensing rights to the U-verse brand to potentially offer its customers a unified product suite of television, broadband, and phone service over a fiber to the neighborhood network. Maggie Wilderotter, CEO of Frontier Communications, told the Wall Street Journal the deal between AT&T and Frontier had been on the table for years waiting to be finalized. With today’s announcement, AT&T New England president Patricia Jacobs acknowledged Frontier will use the U-verse name at a secondary brand for video service. Frontier now relies on satellite reseller agreements to bundle video service into its packages for consumers.

Frontier’s acquisition will give the company hands-on experience with AT&T’s U-verse network in Connecticut and offer a path to bring improved service to Frontier customers elsewhere. Company officials also acknowledged a key reason for the transaction was boosting Frontier’s lagging dividend, a critical part of its share price. By taking on nearly 1,000,000 new customers, Frontier will boost its cash flow, returning some of that new revenue in a higher dividend payout to shareholders. But the company will take on an extra $2 billion in debt to manage higher dividend payouts.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. arranged the financing for the acquisition and Frontier will likely raise about $1.9 billion from debt markets by selling bonds. Frontier already has $8.13 billion in debt on the books, much of it acquiring landlines originally owned by Verizon.

AT&T’s departure from Connecticut was no surprise to analysts. AT&T operates most of its landline network in the midwest, south, and in the state of California. The company has focused primarily on serving business customers and its wireless network in the northeast, not residential landlines. Frontier described the deal as a perfect fit for Connecticut residents, because Frontier specializes in residential phone and broadband service.

“AT&T has been trying to sell its rural wireline businesses for some time,” Gerard Hallaren, an analyst with Janco Partners Inc., told Bloomberg News. “It looks to me like Frontier cherry-picked a nice asset at a nice price from AT&T.”

SNET began operations in 1878 as the District Telephone Company of New Haven and pre-dated the Bell System. The company founded the first exchange and printed the world’s first telephone directory. It remained independent of Bell System ownership until 1998, when SBC Communications (formerly Southwestern Bell) acquired the company. In late 2005, SBC purchased AT&T and AT&T Connecticut was born.

Over the past seven years, AT&T has watched customers decline from more than two million customers to fewer than one million. AT&T introduced U-verse to improve its position in the market to mixed results. The company’s investments in fiber upgrades have not been as profitable as its wireless network, likely leading to today’s sale.

AT&T says it is not leaving Connecticut altogether. The company plans to keep business and wireless customers in the state.

Much of the proceeds from the deal will be invested by AT&T in its wireless network, mostly to help pay for 4G LTE upgrades. The rest will be spent bringing U-verse to more customers in the midwest and southern U.S.

The acquisition faces regulator approval from both the Federal Communications Commission and Department of Justice, likely to be forthcoming in the first half of 2014.

Frontier executives promised shareholders the deal will result in $125 million in cost savings over the next three years — code language for layoffs. Some of them are likely to be among the 2,400 workers represented by the Communications Workers of America, which has had a contentious relationship with AT&T Connecticut over job cuts in the past.

Rural Norway is getting a broadband upgrade. Out goes last century’s DSL service and in comes gigabit fiber to the home service for villages and towns that American providers would consider unprofitable to serve.

Despite the harsh winter conditions, Altibox has already begun work installing the new fiber network in the fjord and mountain district of Hjelmeland on Norway’s west coast. The aim is to offer a fiber optic connection to each of the 2,800 residents and 1,000 seasonal vacation homeowners who want one by the end of 2016.

Hjelmeland
Photo by: Bjarte Sorensen

Installation has already begun in the fjord and mountain district. The first customers will be online by the first half of 2014. At launch, customers will be offered a package including 1,000/1,000Mbps Internet access, cable TV, and a phone line with calling and feature package for around $165 a month, considered steep for Europe but not unusual in high cost service areas.

With its widely spaced buildings and vacation homes, Hjelmeland is perhaps one of the most challenging districts in Norway to install a fiber-optic network, according to Toril Nag of Altibox.

“This project will set a new standard for what it is possible to achieve when local government, local residents and the service provider all work towards a common goal,” Nag said. “In our assessment, there are currently only a few households that are situated so far from the trunk cable that it would not make economic sense to invest in a fiber connection.”

Not every resident can get broadband service as the district relies heavily on DSL, which underperforms in rural areas. Fiber optics solves the problem distance creates for high-speed copper-based DSL service and is cheaper to maintain in a district known for its difficult terrain and rugged character.

Altibox is using Hjelmeland as a rural broadband laboratory to learn more about how the company can profitably offer fiber optic broadband in higher cost areas. Eventually every Altibox customer across Norway will get gigabit speeds from the provider.

Norway is rushing ahead of North America in broadband deployment and speed. The government has set a target for every resident to have access to a minimum of 100Mbps service by 2017. The European Union has been less demanding, seeking 100Mbps service for at least 50 percent of subscribers by 2020.”We can look forward to an incredibly exciting year,” said Hjelmeland’s mayor, Trine Danielsen. “We believe that the installation of the most advanced data-communications infrastructure in Norway will make us an even more attractive area to live in for people of all ages.

“In the long-term, for example, the fiber-optic network could enable our older residents to live at home for longer, with the help of smart-house technology and new self-help solutions,” she added. “In addition, the new fiber-optic network will boost business development throughout the district, and provide a strong platform on which to build for both existing business enterprises and brand new ones.”

Sold Out

An area Britain’s telecom giant BT pronounced “not commercially viable” for a fiber broadband upgrade sold out every available connection after residents successfully campaigned BT to change its mind.

The unassuming “Cabinet 82” in Hunslet (Middleton, north of Manchester, near South Leeds) was left off the telecom company’s fiber upgrade list because the company was convinced residents were satisfied with the DSL speeds they were getting and it wouldn’t be worth the cost to upgrade service.

Nearly 300 residents had complained about slow Internet speeds and requested a fiber upgrade for “Cabinet 82” since 2012, initially to no avail. After relentless complaints from local residents, BT changed its mind.

A newly upgraded cabinet with fiber to the neighborhood service was inaugurated earlier today and within hours, every available connection was sold, proving BT’s assumptions about customer demand for faster speeds wrong.

“This is the best possible Christmas present for so many people in this previously under-served area,” Carl Thomas, a member of the Fiber for Middleton Coalition told ISPreview.co.uk. “From being able to work from home for the first time to enjoying the media-rich Internet to, in the case of a deaf family, being able to communicate with relatives via sign language over Skype this is quite literally life-changing.”

The example of Middleton has called into question the veracity of BT’s customer demand modeling scheme, a critical part of how the company decides which areas are most commercially viable for service upgrades. It turns out even in out-of-the-way suburban neighborhoods, there is tremendous demand for speeds far faster than what providers expected.

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Superfast Cornwall Inside a BT fibre broadband cabinet.mp4[/flv]

A short tour inside one of BT’s Fiber to the Neighborhood cabinets produced by Recombu. (1:50)