AT&T Mobility has been sending out their blogger team to try and clean up the damage from CEO Ralph de la Vega’s not-too-subtle hint that the days of unlimited iPhone data plans are numbered:

Unfortunately, there has been a lot of misinformation, rumor and pure speculation floating out there during the last day on this topic.

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We carry more smartphone data traffic than any other U.S. provider, with traffic growing 5,000 percent over the past three years. As a result, we are working aggressively and investing heavily in our network to support this tremendous growth. Our $17 – $18 billion CapEx spend for 2009 includes:

• Nearly doubling the wireless spectrum serving 3G customers in hundreds of markets across the country, using high-quality 850 MHz spectrum.  This additional spectrum expands overall network capacity and improves in-building reception.
• Adding about 2,000 new cell sites, expanding service to new cities and improving coverage in other areas.
• Adding about 100,000 new backhaul connections, which add critical capacity between cell sites and the global IP backbone network.  We’re doubling the number of fiber-served cell sites this year.
• Enabling widespread access to our Wi-Fi network – the largest in the country with more than 20,000 hotspots in all 50 states – allowing them to take advantage of the best available AT&T mobile broadband connection.
• Rolling out even faster 3G speeds with deployment of HSPA 7.2 technology, with availability in six markets planned by the end of the year.
• Preparing for field trials of next generation, LTE wireless networks next year, with deployment planning to begin in 2011.  This schedule aligns with industry expectations for when a wide variety of compatible 4G wireless devices should be available.

We have seen very positive results from our efforts thus far.  In one of the most common measures of reliability – dropped calls – AT&T’s national performance is within two-tenths of 1 percent of the highest score among major providers as measured by an independent firm, with only 1.32 percent of calls dropped nationally.

Ralph de la Vega

AT&T’s blogger team says it isn’t true that de la Vega is definitively saying he’s “capping” services.

But de la Vega never said in his original statements that he was advocating “capping” service.  He said, “there’s got to be some sort of a pricing scheme that addresses … usage.”  Scheme is right.  That’s code language for consumption or usage-based billing, something the blogger team doesn’t rule out.  A strict usage cap simply says a customer cannot exceed a specified amount.  Most consumption billing schemes monetize data consumption, not with a true pay-for-use system that bills by the megabyte, but rather a fixed monthly price with an allowance and overlimit penalties for exceeding it.  AT&T already uses consumption-based billing for its prepaid and postpaid mobile broadband plans, so extending it to the iPhone isn’t exactly novel.

The iPhone customer has been treated as a profit engine by AT&T since the phone was first introduced.  Compelling customers to purchase a mandatory data plan that was originally priced at $20 and was raised to $30 was the price iPhone customers had to pay for bragging rights.  Should AT&T impose consumption billing, that price may go much higher.

AT&T must believe iPhone users are willing to pay that price or dramatically cut usage.  Either way, AT&T milks the very last nickle out of its exclusivity arrangement that some industry observers believe will expire in the early summer of 2010.  When that happens, AT&T must be quietly pondering what customers will do once they can buy an iPhone from other carriers.

Leafing through January’s issue of Consumer Reports, I find one possible answer in the magazine’s annual survey of America’s best and worst cell phone providers (subscription required for detailed results).  More than 50,000 subscribers rated their wireless carrier, and AT&T turned in dismal ratings, usually ending up at the bottom except in some cities where Sprint achieved that dubious honor.  AT&T’s problems, reported in cities from coast to coast:

• No service where service should exist
• All circuits busy
• Dropped calls
• Static

Results have been so poor, the magazine recommended that those affected should call AT&T and demand credit.  Many customers have gotten at least three months’ worth of service credits valued at more than $200 for doing so.

Logical conclusion: customers love the iPhone but hate the network it is tied to.  With de la Vega’s recent data usage temper tantrum, it’s just one more reason to be annoyed with AT&T.

For customers who entertain the notion of owning an iPhone, but simply refuse to leave their current provider to obtain it, that’s nearly $3,000 left on the table over the life of a two-year contract.  That should concern both Apple and AT&T.  For Apple, it means potentially losing new iPhone customers to impr0ved competing phones, such as those running Google’s Android operating system.  For AT&T, once the Berlin Wall of exclusivity falls and two year contracts expire, years of consumer frustration with their network could lead to a stampede for the exits.

AT&T’s hybrid fiber-copper wire U-verse system added its 2,000,000th customer today and has announced a new speed tier in three of the company’s markets: Austin and San Antonio in Texas and St. Louis, Missouri.

The new High Speed Internet Max Turbo plan signals two things about AT&T’s broadband service — it can squeeze a bit more speed out of its more advanced VDSL network and it’s running out of clever names for its premium speed tiers.  The new plan is capable of achieving up to 24Mbps downstream and 3Mbps upstream, which is still not enough to compete with Time Warner Cable and Charter Cable’s DOCSIS 3 cable modem technology, but could be enough for many consumers.  The new plan is priced at $65 a month for residential customers who also receive other AT&T services, and $95 a month for business customers.  Many small business customers choose DSL service over cable modem technology because of installation costs, which can be prohibitive if an office park is not already wired for cable service.

AT&T added one million new customers in 2009 across 22 states where it provides service.  U-verse is still a work in progress in many areas where AT&T is slowly upgrading its facilities to deliver service. U-verse competes primarily with cable televisi0n, using a “bundled service” approach that tries to sign up customers for a complete line of telecommunications products.

Besides the alternative cable television service AT&T provides, more than 90% of customers also take U-verse’s broadband service.  It’s a major improvement over AT&T’s traditional DSL service, which is much slower and less reliable in providing promised speeds.

A U-verse installer wires up a new customer's home for service

AT&T counts these milestones for 2009:

• Launched 13 U-verse TV apps, bringing the total number of TV apps to 21 and giving U-verse TV customers control and interactivity with their favorite content. Two of the most recent app additions include Multiview, which lets you watch up to four channels at one time on your TV screen; and Santa Tracker, which lets families visit the North Pole to play holiday games, listen to sing-a-longs, follow Santa around the globe on Christmas Eve and more.
• Added more than 25 High Definition (HD) channels, bringing the U-verse TV HD channel lineup to more than 110 HD channels in every U-verse TV market. AT&T claims U-verse offers more HD channels than major cable providers in every U-verse TV market.
• Enhanced the company’s Digital Video Recorder to include Mobile Remote Access for the iPhone, an app that allows you to schedule and manage DVR recordings and search U-verse TV program listings from your iPhone. AT&T also added the capability to schedule and delete recordings from any U-verse connected TV in the home.
• Improved speeds on its broadband service by launching Max Turbo. AT&T also upgraded U-verse High Speed Internet Max customers by increasing speeds from up to 10 Mbps to up to 12 Mbps — a 20 percent speed increase at no extra charge.
• Expanded U-verse availability in the Southeast region. U-verse TV is now available in all 22 states of AT&T’s traditional footprint, and the advanced fiber network passes more than 20 million living units.
• Ramped U-verse Voice availability. U-verse Voice is now available in all 120 markets that offer U-verse TV, giving consumers another option for their home phone services and more quad-play integrated features.

Apple iPhone

AT&T Mobility, the still-exclusive provider of Apple’s iPhone in the United States, is floating trial balloons about the imminent end of “unlimited data” plans for iPhone customers.  Although the company has always defined their wireless broadband service as “unlimited” even though the fine print says they really mean “up to 5GB of usage per month,” the mandatory data plan forced on iPhone customers has retained its “unlimited means unlimited” definition.  We’ve never verified a customer thrown off of AT&T’s network for using too much data on their iPhone.

AT&T has managed the iPhone as both a success story and a major challenge to its network.  People will go to all sorts of trouble to acquire and keep an iPhone, including putting up with less 3G coverage and more congestion-related dropped calls and other service problems in some larger cities.

Considering the enormous revenue boost the iPhone has brought to AT&T, customers might wonder why the company simply doesn’t pour additional money into building more network capacity.  AT&T Mobility CEO Ralph de la Vega doesn’t agree.

He believes the answer isn’t going to be found in just upgrading AT&T’s network.  Instead, he wants to implement an Internet Overcharging scheme like consumption billing and do away with the “unlimited” plan altogether.

AT&T claims that three percent of smart phone customers consume 40 percent of network capacity, a substantial percentage if compared with the amount of data a mobile broadband dongle can help a laptop or netbook consume.  Of course, those numbers are AT&T’s and do not come with independent verification.

For de la Vega, consumption pricing “is inevitable.”  That allows AT&T to reduce demand on its network and manage upgrades at a level more comforting on that quarterly financial report.

“What’s driving [high] usage are things like video or audio that plays around the clock,” de la Vega said at an analysts conference. “We have to get to those customers and get them to recognize they have to change their patterns, or there are things we will do to change those patterns.”

Customers forced to ration their usage with the threat of a higher bill can work… for AT&T.

AT&T may be about to test the limits of the iPhone enthusiast.  After all, they’ve already been pushed into a two year contract for a premium-priced phone, enrolled in a high priced service plan with a compulsory data package add-on, and have to live with AT&T’s less-than-stellar coverage in several areas.  Will AT&T be able to punish its customers further by taking away their unlimited data plan and replace it with consumption billing and see if they’ll break?

We’re likely about to find out.

AT&T wants to embark on a part-conservation, part-education campaign to get customers to reduce usage.

“We need to educate the customer … We’ve got to get them to understand what represents a megabyte of data,” de la Vega says. “We’re improving all our systems to let consumers get real-time information on their data usage.”

That’s the AT&T version of the gas gauge, the usage meter that means more profits for them and less service for you.

A question customers might want to ask Apple and AT&T: If the sole provider of the iPhone in the United States is a hard luck case of an over-congested network and an inability to invest profits to expand it, perhaps it’s time that exclusive contract comes to an end, allowing other mobile providers to ‘share the burden.’  Then customers can decide if AT&T’s rationing, consumption billing, and education campaign is right for them.

AT&T’s DSL customers are promised high speed service that can never be delivered thanks to speed caps and dishonest marketing.  That is the premise of a lawsuit filed against AT&T way back in 2005 in St. Louis County Circuit Court.  After years of languishing, the lawsuit has recently been certified a “class action,” which means it could eventually expose AT&T to thousands of settlements with DSL customers all the way back to 2000 in Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas.

An attorney with Gray, Ritter & Graham in St. Louis, which is handling the case, accused AT&T of making speed claims for its DSL service it knew it could never actually deliver to consumers.  The suit describes several instances where customers’ modems were artificially locked at speeds far lower than promised in company advertising, often making it impossible to reach even the minimum promised speeds.

“They were being charged for these high speeds that could not be delivered,” said Don Downing, an attorney with the firm.

AT&T admits it does cap DSL speeds, but calls the process “optimization.”  That usually refers to the process of identifying the maximum supportable speed a telephone line can handle with minimal errors, and then configuring the modem not to exceed that speed.  As DSL speeds will decrease the further away a customer lives from the phone company’s facilities, typically advertised speeds are often achieved only by a select few who live very close to the phone company’s exchange office.

The fine print in AT&T's DSL service terms and conditions

AT&T maintains records of every customer capped, and at what rate.  The legal firm handling the case considers that a potential road map of identifying impacted consumers.

AT&T has notified the court it may seek to appeal the class certification, but otherwise does not comment on pending litigation.

Many customers have not been impressed with AT&T’s DSL service.

“We recently left AT&T because our DSL, which worked fine, suddenly stopped working completely and when it was brought back up, it was almost as slow as dial-up. The service guy told me that was as fast as we would ever get with DSL, which was odd because two weeks earlier the speed had been fine,” Anne writes.  “Needless to say, we’ve switched to Charter (Cable).”

Another AT&T customer noted getting out of bad AT&T DSL service can be difficult, unless you are willing to pay.

Dano notes, “When you sign up, there’s a one year contract and termination fee on the lowest speed you’d have to deal with if you close your account early. They will get you either way.”

This is part one in a series of stories illustrating how telecommunications companies use a combination of public relations firms, professional lobbyists, friendly regulators, and outmaneuvered state officials to sell “improved service” to the public in return for regulatory “reform.”  Too often, that “reform” is loaded with loopholes and language that guarantees providers can break their promises, tie state and local regulators’ hands when bad service results, and ultimately stick you with the bill.

Over the past several months, several communities in New Jersey have been up in arms about Verizon’s reinterpretation of a state law originally written in the 1940s but “updated” just a few years ago, to mean it no longer has to pay telephone pole and infrastructure taxes to municipalities for using the public right of way.  Verizon’s “reinterpretation” of the state’s Business Personal Property Tax law surprised several municipalities who now face significant financial challenges as a result of the lost revenue.  New Jersey residents will likely make up the difference with a higher property tax rate.

On the surface, it might appear Verizon simply happened upon tax savings.  Verizon claims the law only requires it to pay taxes in communities where it has more than 51% of the area’s phone customers.  Despite protestations from local officials, Verizon has signaled its intent to carry on, estimating 150 communities will join the 50-60 already impacted by next year.

Changes in telecommunications public policy do not occur in a vacuum.  They happen when providers lobby for regulatory reform and bring gift baskets filled with promises for dramatically improved service.  Using a network of high priced lawyers and public relations campaign experts, companies can easily outmaneuver local and state regulators at every turn.  Unfortunately, by the time consumers (and sometimes regulators) realize they were left with a Trojan Horse filled with empty promises, it’s too late.

Some deals just bring consumers higher prices while others saddle communities with highly-leveraged, heavily indebted companies that eventually collapse in bankruptcy.

Just how did we get here?  In this series, we’ll look at New Jersey’s history with its largest resident phone company.  From New Jersey Bell to Bell Atlantic to Verizon, more than 20 years of questionable reform has left residents “touched” in their wallets.  The blame doesn’t rest entirely with the phone company, either.  Local and state officials were repeatedly won-over by professionally-run lobbying campaigns.  After repeated bad experiences, one might assume they’d know better by now.  Those communities no longer getting tax payments from Verizon can testify they haven’t.

Let’s turn back the clock to the dramatic changes in telecommunications that came with the 1984 breakup of Ma Bell and the Bell System.

Telecommunications Industry Sets the Stage for a Money Party

[flv width=”640″ height=”500″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/1977 The Bell System.flv[/flv]

In 1977, the overwhelming majority of Americans were served by “the phone company,” namely AT&T and its family of Bell companies providing local service. (2 minutes)

AT&T's Bell System in 1977 (click to enlarge)

For decades, telephone service was run largely as a monopoly by the enormous Bell System and several dozen smaller, non-Bell independent phone companies.  Telephone service was regulated by state and federal authorities who approved rate increase requests and made sure providers met service quality standards. Consumers did not own the telephone equipment in their homes – it was rented from the phone company.  Although often uninspired, Bell System telephones were often virtually indestructible, ranging from basic utilitarian black rotary dial phones to the flaunting Princess phone, which had a lighted dial and came in several colors.

As America began earnestly developing data transmission systems in the late 1960s and early 1970s, AT&T kept its monopoly intact there as well.  At the time, a cooperative arrangement between IBM and AT&T ensured most American businesses would probably deal with one or both companies for their data communications needs.

The eventual fall of the monopoly glory days of AT&T and its Bell System monopoly can be laid at the feet of corporate arrogance, particularly from one John D. deButts who became AT&T’s new Chairman and CEO on April 1, 1972.  deButts was AT&T born and bred, rising through the ranks over decades of employment with AT&T.  To him, anything smacking of competition was to be considered a duplication of effort and wasted resources.  AT&T, in his view, had already strayed too far from its past when Americans could go from coast to coast and deal with just one telephone system using uniform standards and practices of operations.  Consistency and quality should be the highest priority for AT&T, not squabbling with smaller competitors fighting with each other for customers.

A politically tone-deaf deButts infuriated a post-Watergate Congress hellbent on reform at a time when Americans had grown suspicious of big power players, be they political or corporate.  The confident AT&T executive delivered a speech before regulatory commissioners in the fall of 1973 that included within it, “[we must] take to the public the case for the common carrier principle and thereby implication to oppose competition, espouse monopoly.”

Not only did the speech irritate many members of Congress, it helped convince one of AT&T’s competitors, MCI to file a 22 count lawsuit against AT&T in March 1974, accusing Ma Bell of being engaged in illegal antitrust activities.

An even more important lawsuit was filed by the U.S. Justice Department on November 20, 1974.  The federal government also accused AT&T of antitrust behavior, claiming the company locked-up the telephone equipment business for itself, and was well-suited to crush any potential competitor from getting a serious foothold in the marketplace.  At the time, AT&T officials sniffed that the lawsuit was completely without merit and promised to fight back at all costs.

deButts ordered company lawyers to stall, delay, and roadblock the government’s case as much as possible, and the company enjoyed years of court delays.  The lawsuit dragged through several preliminary hearings and motions, until the then-presiding judge, Joseph Waddy, fell ill and had to reduce his caseload.  The United States v. AT&T was transferred to a newly-appointed District Judge named Harold Greene in September 1978.  The days of delay were over.  Greene quickly ordered the case to trial starting in September 1980.

While the court case saw some changes, AT&T did as well.  In February 1979, deButts was out, replaced with a far more conciliatory Charles Brown.  He changed AT&T’s tune, publicly welcoming competition into the marketplace, announcing “I am a competitor and I look forward with anticipation and confidence to the excitement of the marketplace.”

Having that attitude probably wasn’t helpful to defending AT&T’s case, and the company eventually threw in the towel, reaching a settlement with the government in 1982.  Overseen by Judge Greene, AT&T was promised it could keep its long distance service, Western Electric (which manufactured telephone equipment), and Bell Labs, the company’s research and development arm.  In return, it had to divest all 22 local phone monopolies.

America's newly independent regional telephone companies post-1984

Judge Greene, issuing a final consent decree to be effective January 1, 1984 formally broke up the Bell System.  The 22 local phone companies under AT&T were merged into seven Regional Bell Operating Companies, each to be run independently:

• Ameritech (acquired by SBC in 1999 – now part of AT&T again)
• Bell Atlantic (acquired GTE in 2000 and changed its name to Verizon)
• BellSouth (reabsorbed back into a newly reorganized AT&T in 2006)
• NYNEX (acquired by Bell Atlantic in 1996 – later to become part of Verizon)
• Pacific Telesis (acquired by SBC/AT&T in 1997)
• Southwestern Bell (changed its name to SBC in 1995, then acquired the remnants of AT&T in 2005, rechristening itself as the ‘new’ AT&T)
• US West (acquired by Qwest in 2000.)

The goal was to create several smaller regional companies not too large to face challenging competition from new independent providers entering the marketplace.

The result of all of this upheaval was competition in the long distance calling marketplace, but very little competition for local residential telephone service over phone company-provided telephone lines.

Still, for a time the post-breakup family of former Bell companies enjoyed stability and a less regulated marketplace, and several raised rates for local phone service, even while cutting long distance prices.  Customers could now buy and install their own telephone equipment, including answering machines and computer modems, and several competitors began to spring up to serve business customers.

By the 1990s, a new upstart appeared on the horizon that would potentially threaten the whole ‘arrangement.’  The cable television industry, subjected to a more regulated marketplace after years of monopoly abuse of customers, was looking for new unregulated add-on services they could provide to bring back the days of big profits they enjoyed just a few years earlier.  Two potential services: providing connectivity to the Internet and providing cable customers with telephone service.

When phone companies realized cable was planning to invade their turf, this meant war.

In part two, learn more about how the telephone companies went ‘back to the future’ and rebuilt the empire Judge Greene broke up.