Cable operators will be challenged to find enough open video channels to support a gradual transition to IP-based video, which could mean an early end to analog cable television in large parts of the country.

The former chief technology officer of Charter Communications, Marwan Fawaz, noted cable operators will need at least 24-32 free analog channels to duplicate their digital lineup — considerably more than many operators have available on today’s crowded cable dial.

Fawaz

The transition to digital cable won’t be easy for some consumers, many who actively dislike set top boxes on every television and the endless rental fees that often accompany them.  Cable operators face more resistance from customers than their telephone and satellite competitors, who have always required equipment on every television in the home.  But with the demand for increased broadband speeds, new network-capable DVR boxes that can be accessed from other televisions in the home, and the never-ending addition of new HD channels, converting analog signals to digital is the most cost-effective way to free up space to handle today’s demands on existing cable systems.  The alternative would be expensive upgrades to increase available bandwidth — an investment unlikely to win favor on Wall Street or in company boardrooms.

Cable operators are taking different approaches to the challenge.  Comcast has been systematically reducing the number of analog signals on its cable systems, using that space for new digital signals, including HD broadcasts and faster broadband.  Time Warner Cable has deployed a transparent “on-demand” system for its lesser-watched digital channels that only transmit them into neighborhoods where viewers are watching them. Smaller operators are also moving to adopt nearly all-digital cable television lineups, especially on older systems that have already exhausted available space for new channels and services.

Fawaz says cable’s progression to IP-based delivery of cable channels is inevitable, a matter of “when” not “if,” according to an article in Light Reading:

For operators that don’t expect to have that much capacity available to them soon, he suggests that they could start off in smaller stages, perhaps beginning by moving Video-on-Demand services and some “niche” networks over to IP and supporting them with hybrid QAM/IP set-tops or gateways. Another transitional option, at least from an in-home multi-screen perspective, is to start using specialized transcoding that can convert QAM video to IP and pass those streams to tablets, PCs and other devices using the home’s Wi-Fi network.

Most cable operators are supplying customers with digital adapters that can accommodate digital signals on older, analog televisions, without a giant set top box taking up space.  To make the transition easier, operators typically provide up to 2-3 boxes for free for 1-2 years and then bill customers a nominal rental fee thereafter.

An increasing number of cable customers will become familiar with these “DTA” boxes in 2012.  Time Warner Cable, the nation’s second largest cable operator, will continue its progression to convert its cable operations to mostly-digital this year.  Time Warner’s customers in Maine were the first to experience the switch, with mixed results.  Fawaz expects some remnants of the analog lineup, as well as some limited support for QAM channels, will remain for the next 7-10 years.

While a downturn economy continues to afflict middle and lower income America, it doesn’t seem to be doing much harm to Time Warner Cable’s profits.

America’s second largest cable operator saw profits jump more than $150 million higher to $564 million last quarter, compared to $392 million at the same time the year before.  Time Warner’s revenue grew by 4% to $5 billion in the fourth quarter alone.  In fact, the company is performing so well, executives announced they would return $3.3 billion in earnings to shareholders through share buybacks and dividend payouts, in addition to the forthcoming $4 billion share repurchase program.  Wall Street liked what they saw, boosting shares 7% after the company posted its quarterly and annual results on its website.

Time Warner’s biggest success story remains its broadband service, which consistently delivers the company new subscribers and has helped offset the loss of video subscribers, numbered at an additional 129,000 who “cut the cord” in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Time Warner Cable earned $1.148 billion in revenue from broadband in the last quarter, an increase of 8.6% over last year.  For 2011, the cable operator earned $4.476 billion selling residential Internet access, also representing an 8.6% growth rate over earnings across 2010.

The company attributed this to “growth in high-speed data subscribers and increases in average revenues per subscriber (due to both price increases and a greater percentage of subscribers purchasing higher-priced tiers of service).”

The increased costs incurred by Time Warner Cable to upgrade and expand their network and cable systems were well offset by the aforementioned price increases and subscriber upgrades.  The company increased capital expenditures to $942 million in the last quarter.  Results over the full year show just a 0.2% overall increase in capital investment, now at $2.937 billion.  System upgrades, Time Warner’s plans to move their systems to all-digital cable television, the ongoing rollout of DOCSIS 3.0, new home security and automation services, and investment in online video and data centers are included in these costs. But a more significant reason for the increase comes from the company’s ongoing expansion into business services, which requires wiring more office buildings for cable.

Britt

Time Warner Cable CEO Glenn Britt led off the conference call with investors with an explanation for the increased expenses.

“We plan to continue our aggressive growth in business services by expanding product offerings, growing our sales force, improving productivity and increasing our serviceable footprint. This means continued investment, both in people and in capital,” Britt said. “Projects include expansion of our content delivery network, which powers our IP video capability, our 2 international headends, completion of DOCSIS 3.0 deployment, and conversion to all-digital in more cities. We expect to be able to accomplish this while maintaining the capital spending of the last 2 years — that is, between $2.9 billion and $3 billion, which represents a continued decline in capital intensity.”

Nothing in Time Warner Cable’s financial disclosures provides any evidence to justify significant changes in their pricing model for broadband, which currently delivers flat rate, unlimited service to customers at different speed rates and price points.  In fact, the company’s investments in DOCSIS 3.0 upgrades, which can support faster broadband speeds and a more even customer experience, have already paid off with subscriber upgrades.

Robert D. Marcus, president and chief operating officer, noted subscribers are increasingly considering faster (and more profitable) broadband tiers.

“Once again, high-speed data net adds over-indexed to our higher-speed tiers,” Marcus noted. “Roughly 3/4 of residential broadband net adds were Turbo or higher. And DOCSIS 3.0 net adds accelerated for the eighth consecutive quarter to an all-time high of 54,000.”

Time Warner’s biggest challenges continue to be the current state of the economy, which has made subscribers much more sensitive to pricing and rate increases, and cord cutting traditional cable television service.

“One group is extremely price-conscious, perhaps due in part to the ongoing economic malaise,” Britt said. “The other group is willing and able to pay for more features and service. We’re going to focus more attention on products and services that best meet each group’s needs rather than pursuing traditional one-size-fits-all solutions.”

That is clearly evident in the company’s bundled service options, including increasingly aggressive discounted pricing for new customers and for those threatening to leave and Time Warner’s super-premium Signature Home service, which delivers super-profits.  Average revenue from Signature Home customers averages $230 a month.  Traditional “triple play” customers who buy phone, Internet, and cable service only bring the cable company an average of $150 a month.

The company’s plans for 2012 do not include a specific statement about implementing an Internet Overcharging scheme like usage billing or usage caps.  But it is unlikely such an announcement would be made explicitly at an earnings announcement.  In the last quarter, Stop the Cap! reported comments from chief financial officer Irene Esteves that the company was still very interested in the concept of selling broadband with usage pricing as a “wonderful hedge” against cord-cutting.

Esteves told a UBS conference she believes usage-based pricing for Time Warner Cable broadband will become a reality sooner or later.  Charging “heavy users” more would already be familiar to consumers used to paying higher prices for heavy use of other services, and she claimed light users would have the option of paying less.

But despite favorable reception to the idea of usage pricing by Wall Street, Esteves acknowledged the company’s past experiments in usage pricing didn’t go as planned, and she suggested the company will introduce usage pricing “the right way rather than quickly.”

Other developments and highlights

• 

  Time Warner faces Verizon's $500 rebate offers in NY City

  Time Warner Beats Up DSL: Time Warner Cable’s most lucrative source for new broadband customers comes at the expense of phone companies still relying on DSL to deliver broadband service.  As DSL speeds have failed to stay competitive with cable broadband, the cable operator has successfully lured price-sensitive DSL customers with attractive ongoing price promotions delivering a year of standard 10/1Mbps cable Internet access for $29.99 a month, often less expensive than the total price of DSL service that frequently delivers slower speeds.

• Stalled Verizon FiOS deployment has limited the amount of competition Time Warner faces from fiber optics to just 12% of the company’s service area.  Where competition does exist, especially in New York State, Time Warner has had to stay aggressive to retain customers with deeply-discounted retention deals to keep up with Verizon’s high value rebate gift cards and new customer offers.  AT&T now provides U-verse competition in about 25% of Time Warner’s service area, but like satellite, AT&T U-verse pricing is less heavily discounted.
• Retention pricing and new customer deals deliver lower prices than ever.  In November, Time Warner started selling a triple play offer for $89.99 a month that includes DVR service and now also includes deep discounts or free 90 day trials of premium movie channels. That is $10 less than the same time last year.
• Premium movie channels continue to take a major hit as subscribers try to reduce their bills, especially after Time Warner began increasing rates on those networks.  HBO now sells for as much as $15 a month in many areas.  Time Warner Cable hopes to ‘revitalize’ premium movie channels with online video services like HBO and Max Go and promotional discounts.
• Long-standing customers of Time Warner’s “triple play” package received a “thank-you gift” — free voice-mail in 2011, something that will continue in 2012.
• Customers signing up for Time Warner’s premium-priced Wideband (50/5Mbps) service ($99/month) are being offered free phone service to sweeten the deal.

What to Expect in 2012

• Time Warner is moving forward to create its own Regional Sports Network for southern California;
• Los Angeles will continue to see large-scale expansion of Time Warner’s growing Wi-Fi network, available for free to premium broadband customers, with thousands of new access points on the way;
• The cable company will introduce Wi-Fi service in other, yet-to-be-announced cities in 2012, with up to 10,000 access points planned.
• Time Warner will be making its “digital phone” product more attractive with lower prices and more features, especially in product bundles, as consumers increasingly discard landlines;
• Expect to see the end of analog cable television in a growing number of Time Warner Cable areas, requiring customers to use new equipment (initially provided free) to continue watching on older televisions and those without existing set top boxes.
• Time Warner will continue to expand its “TV Everywhere” project to include live streaming TV on smartphones, video game consoles, computers, and more.  On-demand programming will be available as well sometime this year across all platforms.
• A nationwide channel re-alignment will move subscribers to consistent channel numbers across the country, in part based on grouping them together into “genres.”  Many areas already have digital cable channels arranged this way, but now they will be consistent from coast-to-coast.
• Time Warner will complete DOCSIS 3 deployment in all areas this year.
• The company is moving to introduce 2-hour service call windows almost everywhere, and 1-hour windows and weekend appointments in some markets.  Several cities now allow customers to select specific times for service appointments.
• Self-install kits will become increasingly available for different products, allowing customers to install equipment themselves;
• Time Warner’s IntelligentHome home security, monitoring, and automation product will expand beyond its launch markets (Syracuse and Rochester, N.Y., Charlotte, N.C. and Los Angeles/Southern Calif.).  The product currently has customers in the thousands, considered relatively small.  But Time Warner has learned subscribers are using the service in surprising ways, which will let them adapt their marketing.  Among the most popular features: remotely watching your pets at home.

Most Memorable Quote: “I think, more than anything else, our pricing strategy is dictated by what the marketplace will bear as opposed to what our underlying cost structure is.” — Robert Marcus, president and chief operating officer, Time Warner Cable

Time Warner Cable’s progression towards all-digital cable continues to spread across Maine as customers in Albion, Augusta, Belgrade, Benton, China, Clinton, Farmingdale, Gardiner, Hallowell, Litchfield, Manchester, Monmouth, Mount Vernon, North Vassalboro, Readfield, Richmond, Rome, Sidney, Vassalboro, West Gardiner and Winthrop lost many of their analog channels last week.

But customers losing AMC, Animal Planet, Cartoon Network, CKSH, CHLT, CNBC, E!, EWTN, GAC, Hallmark Channel, HGTV, History, HSN, INSP, NECN, Ovation, QVC, SyFy, Shop NBC, TCM, TNT, and USA also provoked the loss of something else: patience.

“Cable TV is the only service I pay for that increases my bill and frustration at the same time,” says Augusta Stop the Cap! reader Jeff E. Smith.  “The digital adapter Time Warner sent me was defective right out of the box, and two of my neighbors were also sent defective units that never powered on,” Smith writes.

Time Warner Cable is dramatically reducing the analog cable lineup to make additional room for new digital HD channels and faster broadband speeds.  The company is supplying palm-sized digital adapters for subscribers who don’t have a digital set top box on every television.  Although free until 2014, the boxes will carry a monthly fee of $0.99 each after that.

“The upgrade gives them the chance to cram on more channels we don’t want and more expensive broadband, and yet we have to eventually pay for the equipment,” Smith says. “And it doesn’t even work right.”

Smith’s neighbors have discovered patience-testing lines at some Augusta-area cable stores as customers rushed to obtain the equipment they assumed they didn’t need.

“The neighbor’s mother-in-law doesn’t understand how to use OnStar in her car, so it was no surprise she found out she needed the equipment when most of her favorite channels disappeared,” he adds.  “Time Warner really overestimated the level of understanding customers would have about this after buying new digital-TV’s a few years ago.”

Jim has several suggestions for Time Warner to adopt before the digital upgrade begins its progression across the country:

1. The equipment should be free of charge and included with your regular monthly service.  You can’t realistically expect to buy Time Warner Cable service without a box for every set after the digital conversion is complete, so just include the equipment;
2. A better and less intrusive way to manage this would be to install a single digital converter on the outside of the home or in a closet which could provide analog service to every TV not already equipped with a set top box.  That would mean no annoying box on every set in the home and would probably cost less (in time, money, and aggravation);
3. People assume they are ready for digital cable because they bought digital-ready TV’s after analog television service ceased. Most customers will not read generic letters carefully.  It would be better to send people customized letters telling them they specifically will need the equipment because records indicate additional outlets were installed in the home without corresponding cable set top boxes attached to them.  What are the chances customers are using CableCARD units these days?  Chances are, they’ll need the DTA adapters, so make this clearer.
4. Don’t you dare put customers through this, increase broadband speeds, and then slap usage caps or usage billing on us!

Time Warner Cable customers in Maine are the first in the country to deal with Time Warner Cable’s decision to abandon analog cable television to make room for more digital channels, faster Internet speeds, and enhanced phone service.

Nearly 90,000 subscribers in 105 Time Warner Cable-franchised communities are receiving letters advising them they better clear off space on top of the television set if they don’t already have a cable box or a CableCARD.  They’ll need the space to accommodate a new set top digital adapter box that will let analog television sets receive the new digital signals.  In return, Time Warner Cable will be able to cram 10-15 digital channels into a space formerly occupied by just a single analog channel.

Time Warner Cable will provide a few of the devices for free until 2014, after which the company will begin billing customers $0.99 a month for each digital adapter still active on their account.

Customers in Lewiston, Augusta, Rumford, and Mexico are registering to receive the boxes on a special website Time Warner Cable has launched to handle the transition.  Those customers will see almost all analog cable signals cease on Wednesday, Oct. 19.  The only exception is Time Warner Cable’s “Broadcast Basic” channels, which include local over the air stations and public, educational and government access channels.  In Maine, that includes channels 2-22.

Time Warner Cable says customers with QAM-tuner-equipped televisions won’t need the digital adapters, but some Maine residents question that, noting Time Warner traditionally encrypts most of its QAM channels. There is a strong suspicion those customers will also need digital adapters or a set top box — a ludicrous situation for some.

“I own a set with a QAM tuner built-in, and it looks like I either pay Time Warner Cable for a digital set top box or watch signals downconverted into lower quality analog with a digital adapter,” writes Stop the Cap! reader Lou in Augusta. “Either way, I’ll be paying Time Warner Cable more either immediately, or in two years.”

Lou says the complexities of channel mapping QAM signals guarantees most subscribers will pay for a box.

“It’s cumbersome to scan for open QAM channels, the channel numbers are all messed up, and sometimes the numbers change without warning,” Lou says.

Lou opted for two digital adapters, one for an older bedroom television set and the other for his son’s bedroom.  He completed the installation on his own in about 30 minutes, noting Time Warner Cable will charge $17.99 to roll a truck to handle installation themselves.  The biggest wait came when it was time to authorize the boxes.

“They left me on hold 20 minutes and the woman apparently was not well-trained because she kept asking for help from a supervisor,” Lou shares.  “After getting the boxes activated, they worked about as well as expected, and at least now we can watch digital cable channels on analog televisions in the house without the more expensive set top box.”

Lou doesn’t mind the fact Time Warner is dumping analog cable, he just minds how they are doing it.

“There is no reason we should have to pay the cable company more just so they can consolidate channel space for their own benefit,” Lou says.  “Digital adapters should be free, forever, and QAM channels should be opened up so those of us with tuner-equipped televisions don’t have to get an unnecessary box or adapter just to watch digital channels.”

Time Warner Cable started their nationwide transition as far to the east as they possibly could.  But gradually, every Time Warner Customer will experience the digital transition for themselves.  For the cable company, the transition in Maine is also an experiment to learn what kind of reaction the company gets from its subscribers, says the Sun Journal:

Time Warner is unsure how the conversion will be accepted by the public. This region — from Camden to Waterville and Carrabassett Valley to Poland — is the national company’s first to make the switch. Other markets, including those in the rest of Maine, will follow, said Andrew Russell, spokesman for Time Warner New England.

Meanwhile, no one knows for sure how many boxes will be distributed or whether people will accept the fees when they begin in 2014.

From the cable company’s perspective, the fee is nominal. Similar conversion boxes, which only convert digital signals and don’t unscramble them as Time Warner’s do, cost $40 to $60 at local technology stores.

Canada’s transition to digital television was supposed to be a non-event for cable and satellite customers, because those providers will continue to service analog televisions for sometime to come.  But Shaw Communications found a way to squeeze a few more dollars out of some of their subscribers anyway.

While Canadian broadcasters were discontinuing analog over-the-air television, many Shaw Cable service areas were also dumping an increasing number of analog channels in favor of digital.  In Kamloops, B.C., Cheryl Whiting discovered that conversion was going to cost her plenty.  Although Shaw provides one digital set top box for free, each additional box rents for $2.95 per month, and Whiting will need four of them if she wants to continue watching cable stations above channel 13 throughout her home.

“I may as well sign my paycheque over to them,” Whiting told The Daily News.

Shaw’s ongoing “digital upgrade” is clearing away much of the analog cable dial to make room for additional digital television signals and faster broadband, but that transition comes at a price to customers who now need a set top box on most of their televisions.

Many customers were upgraded during the month of August, with most of the rest scheduled for conversion during September.

[flv width=”540″ height=”416″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Shaw Digital Network Upgrade – Analog Customers.flv[/flv]

Shaw tells customers it is moving all of their cable channels above “broadcast basic” to a digital platform, requiring customers to place digital set top boxes on all of their televisions.  (1 minute)