Connecting… but never connected at this San Francisco bus stop, because AT&T pulled the plug on the 2G service San Francisco’s public transit system relies on. (Photo Courtesy: Rick/Flickr)

AT&T quietly closed down its 2G wireless network nationwide on Jan. 1, 2017, stranding some very old phones left with Wi-Fi only service and causing irritation for San Francisco’s public transit system.

“To help support the massive growth of mobile internet usage and free up spectrum for newer technologies, we discontinued service on our 2G wireless networks Jan. 1, 2017,” AT&T said in a statement released Tuesday. “Since launching our 2G networks, technologies like smart phones, social media and wirelessly connected devices have changed the network landscape. In fact, since 2007, data usage on our network has grown by 250,000% with video being a significant contributor to this growth.”

You were warned: AT&T sent letters to affected customers several months before the shutdown.

2G has been around since the early 1990s and supported data speeds up to 64kbps, just a bit faster than dial-up. 2G was incorporated into slimmed down handsets that replaced early behemoth “brick”-sets, some models with improved video screens to display pictures and text messages. It would take the advent of 3G networks, introduced in 1998, to launch a full scale smartphone revolution.

The most notable phone that no longer has access to AT&T’s network is the original Apple iPhone, first released ten years ago. It will still work on Wi-Fi, but mobile data over AT&T’s network no longer functions.

Perhaps the biggest impact from AT&T’s network closedown came in San Francisco, where local public transit officials in the midst of a multi-year technology upgrade were caught by surprise by the 2G shutdown, leaving the NextMuni bus timing information system disabled. AT&T’s 2G wireless network provided data to and from 70% of the city’s Muni vehicles, including timing and arrival information for riders. When the system shut down, buses stopped reporting accurate arrival and departure information. City officials have temporarily suspended the NextMuni program until it can upgrade its fleet. A San Francisco transit officials told SFBay that could take weeks.

Verizon plans to shut down its 2G CDMA 1X network by 31 December 2019 while T-Mobile US has postponed shutdown of their 2G network until 2020.

AT&T Mobility will acquire 21,000 Corr Wireless subscribers and spectrum owned by the Alabama-based wireless carrier in a private transaction between Corr’s parent company C Spire Wireless and AT&T.

Corr was acquired by Mississippi-based C Spire (formerly Cellular South) in February 2010 as the carrier sought expansion into northeastern Alabama and western Georgia. But Corr’s network has never been upgraded beyond 2G service, and the Corr has traditionally positioned itself as a value priced feature phone provider. As its competitors have moved beyond 3G into 4G service and now pitch mostly smartphones, Corr has fallen behind.

Corr’s coverage area has not been a priority for larger carriers like Verizon Wireless and AT&T. The acquisition, which includes multiple PCS and 700MHz “C-Block” licenses, will bolster AT&T’s weak coverage in the region, which includes Huntsville, Oneonta, Decatur, Cullman, Hartselle, and Arab, Ala.

AT&T is expected to decommission much of Corr’s older equipment and replace it with 4G LTE service.

Customers may not have to immediately upgrade their phones. Corr Wireless, like AT&T, operates a GSM network.

T-Mobile has scrapped the traditional two-year cell phone contract.

T-Mobile’s shift away from subsidized smartphones and standard two-year contracts could be a game-changer for American wireless consumers, but does the scrappy carrier have a good deal for you or mostly for itself?

T-Mobile is and has been America’s fourth largest carrier — the smallest among those offering nationwide home coverage. The provider has lost contract customers for years. T-Mobile’s coverage has been less than great in many areas and it often did not offer the latest and most popular smartphones. After its merger effort with AT&T was shot down by the Department of Justice for anti-competitive reasons, T-Mobile has attempted to remake itself by changing the rules under which most of us buy mobile service.

The biggest change of all is the end of the subsidized phone. For years, cell phone companies have offered free or low-cost phones to customers, earning back that subsidy by charging higher monthly rates and locking customers to two-year contracts with early termination fees. T-Mobile will still give you an affordable phone, only now you will pay it off in small installments over a two-year financing agreement.

What difference does this make? Customers who bounce from one two-year contract to the next may not see much difference. But if you keep your phone longer than two years or buy one elsewhere, your monthly rate with T-Mobile will no longer include an artificially higher price designed to recover the phone subsidy you no longer receive.

It also means nothing traps you with T-Mobile. If after six months you find their service unbecoming, you can leave without hundreds of dollars in termination fees. But customers on financing agreements will continue to make their payments for equipment purchases, and those phones will not be unlocked for use on another carrier until the remaining balance is paid off.

A typical T-Mobile customer looking for the latest iPhone will pay a $100 down payment and then finance the remaining balance, paying $20 a month for 24 months. Your monthly rate will start at $50 a month, which includes unlimited talk and texting, and a 500MB data allowance. If that is insufficient, an extra $10 a month will buy you an extra 2GB of data. If you want unlimited data, that plan is available for an extra $20 a month.

T-Mobile says their plans will save you $1,000 over the life of a two-year contract with AT&T or Verizon. We think they are exaggerating a bit.

Like their competition, T-Mobile is moving away from budget-minded “minute plans” that bundle calling, text and data. Instead, T-Mobile charges at least $50 a month for unlimited talk/text and a small data plan whether you want those features or not.

The Associated Press found that although T-Mobile ends up being the cheapest, the savings over its rivals is closer to $700 on average. The price over two years for a 16-gigabyte iPhone 5 with unlimited calling, unlimited texting and 2.5 gigabytes of data usage per month, excluding taxes, is:

• T-Mobile: $2,020
• AT&T/Verizon: $2,635 (2-3GB data plan)
• Sprint: $2,840 (unlimited data plan included)

Some other things to consider:

• Once your phone is paid off, your ongoing T-Mobile bill will no longer show a phone subsidy payback built into prices charged by other carriers;
• You can pay your phone off early, with no penalty;
• T-Mobile’s 4G network is a mix of HSPA+ and LTE. The more commonly encountered HSPA+ network gets good marks for speed, but a number of densely populated T-Mobile coverage areas surprisingly often default to their older 2G network, which is painfully slow. LTE is only available in about seven cities at the moment, so it is still a rarity;
• T-Mobile’s unlimited service is free from tricks and traps like soft caps and speed throttles. It also performs better than Sprint’s unlimited service on its overloaded 3G and spotty Clearwire 4G WiMAX network. Sprint’s LTE network is on the way… slowly. It seems to be rolling out first in small cities you have never heard of;
• T-Mobile’s coverage in rural and exurban areas is frankly terrible. Travelers on main highways may not encounter many signal gaps, but those living in small towns or off the beaten path may get a roaming signal or poor or no reception from T-Mobile’s own towers at all. The frequencies used for its data service also do not work as well indoors as its larger rivals.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/T-Mobile Ad 4-2-13.flv[/flv]

T-Mobile channels Oprah in this new ad as the big four wireless cowboys get in touch with their feelings. But only one is ready to don a pink hat and ride off on his own. (1 minute)

AT&T is being fingered as the party responsible for rendering Oakland’s $18 million dollar P25 digital public safety radio communications system unreliable, because police and fire radios are often inoperable near the company’s cell towers.

After more than a year of repeated failures and complaints from Oakland police over garbled communications, dead spots, and reception problems, investigators dispatched from the Federal Communications Commission finally identified the source of most of the problems: AT&T.

“If the officer is in an area close to one of their cell sites, essentially the cell site overpowers their radios,” said David Cruise, Oakland’s public safety systems adviser.

The system, built by Harris Corporation of Melbourne, Fla. is suspected of being intolerant of strong cell signals operating on nearby frequencies. The digital nature of the system means degraded communications often go unheard, and firefighters and police officers have complained loudly and repeatedly they have been unable to summon dispatchers while experiencing interference problems. The investigation found the problems are worst within a quarter to a half-mile from one of AT&T’s many cell sites.

The source of the interference is AT&T’s 2G network, operated on 850MHz. Oakland’s public safety P25 system operates on multiple frequencies nearby from 851-854MHz.

Under federal law, public safety communications have priority over cell phone service, and AT&T has cooperated by shutting down 2G service on 850MHz on at least 16 cell towers, immediately reducing complaints from police officers and firefighters.

“AT&T would never do anything to jeopardize law enforcement,” AT&T spokesman John Britton told the San Francisco Chronicle. “This spectrum has been out there since the 1990s. Thursday or Friday was the first time we were notified by Oakland. We reacted quickly.”

AT&T won’t say exactly how many cell sites are located in Oakland, but there are more than 1,000 AT&T-owned towers across the greater San Francisco Bay Area. Oakland officials plan to press AT&T to shut down more 2G data service on 850MHz until a solution can be found.

AT&T says only customers with the oldest phones are likely to notice the network shutdowns, because most current customers use 3G or 4G data service, which has not posed an interference problem. AT&T says it still maintains 2G service in San Francisco on 1900MHz, which should be accessible to customers with older phones, although the service may not operate as well on the higher frequency band when obstructions are present between a cell phone user and the nearest cell tower.

Representatives for law enforcement personnel hope the city is on the right track, but point out the Harris-built digital radio system has been nothing but trouble since it was first activated. The system has suffered repeated glitches, does not work inside hundreds of area buildings, and failed the night President Obama visited Oakland in July. Some critics note the Harris system does not even provide reception in the basement of Oakland’s police headquarters.

City officials are also investigating other contributing potential sources of interference, including T-Mobile, which also operates on similar frequencies in the area.

Ironically, the interference problem may have begun after Sprint Nextel committed to spending over a billion dollars to cover the costs of relocating public safety communications further away from its own cellular frequencies. Sprint Nextel paid $10.5 million to move Oakland’s radio system to a frequency further from its own network, but as it turns out, closer to AT&T’s.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/KCBS San Francisco Oakland Police Radios Failed During Presidents Visit 7-26-12.mp4[/flv]

KCBS in San Francisco has been pursuing the dilemma of Oakland’s public safety communications system for months. Back in July, police were alarmed when the radio system failed the night President Obama arrived in town.  (3 minutes)

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/KCBS San Francisco Closer Look Oakland Police Fed Up With Flawed Radio System 8-14-12.mp4[/flv]

Oakland police are fed up with the year-old $18 million dollar emergency radio system that they say simply does not work. KCBS investigates in this mid-August report.  (4 minutes)

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/KCBS San Francisco ATT Cellphone Towers Blamed For Oakland Police Radio Failures 8-21-12.mp4[/flv]

Investigators from the Federal Communications Commission finally identified a major source of Oakland’s radio problems: AT&T cell sites.  (2 minutes)

Phillip "The Mayans Never Met AT&T" Dampier

AT&T has used the specter of a nationwide wireless bandwidth crisis to pressure Washington to adopt its agenda for additional mobile spectrum.  But talk of a looming “data tsunami” has done nothing to stop AT&T from heavily marketing their most data-hungry devices — smartphones and tablets to customers.

In fact, the “broadband shortage business” has become enormously profitable for the former Ma Bell.

Switch to a Smartphone

Wireless carriers like AT&T aggressively market smartphones because they drive the highest average monthly revenue earned from customers.  So far, the marketing push has been an unparalleled success.  PricewaterhouseCoopers reported smartphones accounted for 48% of all wireless phone sales in 2011, up from 30% in 2010.  More than half of customers upgrading their old phones chose smartphones to replace them — an enormous increase over just 36% of upgrades in 2010.  Because smartphones are designed for an online experience, most companies mandate customers subscribe to a data plan, often adding $30 or more per phone, per month to a wireless phone bill.

AT&T’s 4th quarter results told the story, and it was all smiles.  AT&T celebrated customer enthusiasm for smartphones and the data they consume with no worries about “data tsunamis” or “bandwidth crises”:

• In 2011, AT&T’s growth engines — wireless, wireline data and managed services — represented 76 percent of total revenues and grew 7.5 percent versus 2010, led in the fourth quarter by:
  • 10.0 percent growth in wireless revenues
  • 19.4 percent growth in wireless data revenues, up $956 million versus the year-earlier quarter
• 9.4 million smartphone sales, best-ever quarter and 50 percent more than previous quarterly record and nearly double 3Q11 sales; 82 percent of postpaid sales were smartphones
• Best-ever quarter for Android and Apple smartphones, including 7.6 million iPhone activations

Double-Digit Growth for Wireless Revenues. Total wireless revenues, which include equipment sales, were up 10.0 percent year over year to $16.7 billion. Wireless service revenues increased 4.0 percent, to $14.3 billion, in the fourth quarter.

Wireless Data Revenues Increase 19.4 Percent. Wireless data revenues — driven by Internet access, access to applications, messaging and related services — increased by $956 million, or 19.4 percent, from the year-earlier quarter to $5.9 billion. AT&T’s postpaid wireless subscribers on monthly data plans increased by 16.4 percent over the past year. The number of subscribers on tiered data plans also continues to increase. About 22 million, or 56 percent, of all smartphone subscribers are on tiered data plans, and about 70 percent have chosen the higher-tier plans.

Wireless Margins Reflect Record Sales. Fourth-quarter wireless margins reflect record-setting smartphone sales and customer upgrade levels. This was offset in part by improved operating efficiencies and further revenue gains from the company’s growing base of high-quality smartphone subscribers.

Forcing Customers to Upgrade… Or Else

AT&T's 2G Exit Strategy Started in 2009 (Courtesy: Blackberry News)

Back in 2009, AT&T decided it was inventory clearance time, released a memo entitled “2G Exit Strategy,” and slashed prices on 2G “feature” or “messaging phones” to attract customers looking for a bargain.  A few years later, the company is now sending letters to some of them strongly recommending they upgrade to a new, potentially more expensive phone.  If they don’t, AT&T writes, “your current, older-model 2G phone might not be able to make or receive calls and you may experience degradation of your wireless service in certain areas.”

AT&T hopes many customers will adopt smartphones, because the plans that accompany them are far more expensive than the 2G “messaging” plans they replace. AT&T wants to repurpose 1900MHz 2G spectrum for other services, but sometimes customers are left holding the bag if they don’t want the designated replacement phone(s) AT&T is willing to provide.

In Grand Valley, Col. last fall, AT&T created lines outside its stores as customers were compelled to upgrade phones and service plans to continue reliable AT&T service:

AT&T isn’t actually discontinuing the 2G network — it is moving 2G service to less-favorable spectrum it owns in order to make room for improved 3G coverage.  That might work fine in areas less expansive and rugged than western Colorado, but in the Grand Valley, it means many customers will find they no longer have data service at all.

The ongoing tower upgrades have also disrupted cell service generally, and when customers arrive at AT&T’s stores to complain, the employees on hand attempt to upsell them more expensive phones to “fix” the problem.

“There is significant pressure on carriers to migrate to the most efficient networks while needing to address the issue of spectrum scarcity,” explains PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Dan Hays. “We are beginning to see carriers shut off legacy networks and force customers to migrate to new technologies.”

Internet Overcharging for Profit Without Raising Company Costs

AT&T has no worries about data tsunamis and "exafloods" when app makers or consumers are willing to pay more.

With customers seeking to get the most out of expensive wireless data plans, data usage naturally goes up. But so do prices, meaning the “data tsunami” carriers warn about is not bad for their bottom line at all.

In 2011, consumer research group Validas found average data consumption was up 34.7% for all users, from 448.8MB in January to 604.8MB by December.  AT&T responded with a price increase and an allowance boost that will benefit only a tiny minority of customers.  The most popular data plans now cost $5 a month more: $30 for 3 gigabytes, up from $25 for 2GB and $50 for 5GB, up from $45 for 4GB.  But Validas found only 5% of wireless customers use more than 2GB of data per month, with only 2.7% using more than 3GB.

That translates into higher AT&T bills for the 97% of customers who don’t come close to using even 2GB a month.  Although the price hike delivers no tangible benefit to the overwhelming majority of customers, it does deliver an extra $5 a month from their bank account to AT&T’s.

The “Anyone Pays But Us” Model for “Heavy Traffic”

With online video “clogging” the wireless airwaves, companies like AT&T should be interested in offloading as much video to wired or Wi-Fi service. But late last month, the company suggested a way customers could bypass its stringent data caps by allowing content companies to pay for the wireless traffic their customers generate.

“A feature that we’re hoping to have out sometime next year is the equivalent of 800 numbers that would say, if you take this app, this app will come without any network usage,” said John Donovan, who oversees AT&T’s network and technology. “What they’re saying is, why don’t we go create new revenue streams that don’t exist today and find a way to split them … “It’d be like freight included.”

Only wasn’t the railroad already overburdened with traffic, threatened with a nationwide slowdown?  If one is willing to flash enough money, it’s remarkable how quickly the tidal wave of wireless congestion and despair can be pushed back out to sea.  Just don’t tell Washington lawmakers.  This is a crisis of epic proportions after all.

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Carriers Facing Data Tsunami 3-21-12.mp4[/flv]

Derek Kerton, principal analyst at Kerton Group, talks about increased demand for data and the impact on wireless carriers. Kerton compares it to today’s gasoline prices. Demand=higher prices.  Wall Street folks like Kerton thinks more spectrum isn’t the total answer.  Smaller cell sites and more Wi-Fi might be.  Otherwise, prepare for bill shock.  (4 minutes)