A Wall Street analyst says Sprint has a 50/50 chance of being forced into bankruptcy, either pulling through a difficult upgrade to LTE 4G and stabilizing its partnership with Clearwire, or sinking under a load of debt incurred by Apple’s iPhone and network upgrade expenses.

Sanford Bernstein Research analyst Craig Moffett downgraded Sprint this morning from “market perform” to “underperform,” noting Sprint’s complicated five year credit default swap financing deal already prices in a 50/50 chance Sprint will be forced into Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization.

Moffett told investors he believes Sprint’s near term future can be described in one of two ways:

“In the first, the company successfully navigates its complicated Network Vision upgrade, stabilizes Clearwire‘s financial position, and delivers a compelling 4G product. In the second, some combination of its gargantuan take-or-pay contract with Apple, a hobbled 4G offering, and a stupendous debt burden bring the company to its knees.”

Moffett says Sprint’s biggest risk may come from Apple’s forthcoming 4G LTE iPhone, which he does not believe will work well on Sprint’s network.

“The problem is 4G. Sprint doesn’t have enough free-and-clear spectrum on which to launch a competitive LTE network, and it doesn’t have the money to clear spectrum that’s already in use,” Moffett said. “We expect Sprint’s competitiveness to begin to backslide when LTE becomes the nation’s de facto standard.”

Sprint continues to rely primarily on its troubled partner Clearwire for 4G service, which uses the aging WiMAX standard other carriers abroad are decommissioning.

With the iPhone 5 due later this year, should it provide access to 4G LTE service, Sprint could be in real trouble.  By fall, Sprint’s LTE network is expected to only provide limited coverage in a handful of cities, and on PCS spectrum less suitable for penetrating buildings.  Sprint would be forced to compete against Verizon’s nearly-completed LTE network as well as AT&T’s mixture of LTE and HSPA+ 4G services.  Verizon and AT&T will operate their 4G networks on 700MHz spectrum which can deliver robust signals indoors and out.

“Unfortunately, at this point we simply don’t believe there is any analytical framework that provides strong conviction as to whether Sprint can or cannot avoid bankruptcy over the next four years or so,” Moffett says. “Instead, one is left with this; are the perceived risks rising, or are they falling? We conclude … that risks of bankruptcy are rising, and that perceived risks will rise still further with the release of the first 4G iPhone.”

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Sprint to Go Bankrupt 3-19-12.flv[/flv]

CNBC speaks with Craig Moffett about the challenges afflicting Sprint’s effort to build a 4G LTE network and how a bankruptcy might affect customers.  (4 minutes)

Bell Canada Enterprises, Inc. announced Monday it extended its Fibe Internet and television service to most parts of Quebec City.

Unlike in most other Fibe-enabled Canadian cities, Bell’s network in Quebec City offers true fiber to the home service, not a combination of fiber to the neighborhood/copper wire.  That means increased broadband speeds — downloads up to 175Mbps and uploads of up to 30Mbps.  Quebec City was selected for true fiber service because of of the predominance of overhead aerial wiring, which is much easier and cheaper to replace with fiber than underground wiring.  For other major Canadian cities like Montreal and Toronto, Bell has made do with a lesser network that combines fiber and existing copper phone wiring that offers lower capacity for broadband and video services.

Bell says Fibe is now open for business in the region’s boroughs of Quebec, Beauport, Sillery, Ste-Foy, Cap-Rouge, Charlesbourg, L’Ancienne-Lorette, Loretteville, Sainte-Therese-de-Lisieux and Montmorency.  Service for Levis is expected shortly.

The company says it intends to reserve additional fiber to the home service primarily for multi-dwelling units and new housing developments in Ontario and Quebec, primarily between Windsor in the west and Quebec City in the east.

The company’s aggressive deployment of fiber is an effort to stem landline losses in eastern Canada.  Between cell phone providers and cable companies like Rogers, Cogeco, and Quebecor’s Vidéotron Ltee., Canadians have been hanging up permanently on Bell landlines at an alarming rate for the company.

Dvai Ghose, analyst at Canaccord Genuity told his clients, “Bell is now reporting amongst the worst residential line losses in North America.”  In the last quarter alone, 90,000 Bell customers said goodbye, perhaps permanently.

Bell has lost more than 1.2 million customers in the last two years.  Even Fibe may not be enough to stem the losses.  Canadians are not excited by the company’s video or broadband services, adding only around 27,000 new customers in the last quarter.  Bell’s notorious love of Internet Overcharging schemes like usage caps may be partly responsible.  The company enjoys a poor reputation among Internet enthusiasts for its wholehearted support for usage-limiting Canada’s online experience.

Financial analysts believe aggressive deployment of Fibe may be critical to the company’s long term survival.  Not only must Bell compete with a trend towards wireless phones, it has cable competitors selling triple play packages of phone, Internet and television service at prices that are frequently lower than what Bell charges.

Fibe is expected to be expanded to include the entire island of Montreal and some of the surrounding region by the end of 2012.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bell Entertainment Fibre Internet and TV in Canada.flv[/flv]

An extended length introductory commercial for Bell Canada’s Fibe TV and Internet.  (6 minutes)

A Greensboro man is a victim of Time Warner's identity confusion, reporting him delinquent for someone else's past due bill.

Greensboro, N.C. resident Keith Graves can’t buy a car with a reasonable interest rate.  The reason? Time Warner Cable ruined his credit by reporting him delinquent for cable service they claim he never paid back in 2007, despite the fact Graves didn’t move to North Carolina until 2008.

The cable company still wants its $1,252 and apparently isn’t too concerned who pays it, attaching the debt to a credit report belonging to a different Keith Graves after not bothering to verify the account owner.

“I’ve been violated because of the fact that I hear so much about how other people’s identities have been stolen: credit cards, social security numbers, I haven’t been violated that way,” Graves told WFMY News. “But I have been violated now because of the fact that they literally took my name my good credit, and gave it to somebody else and in fact gave me bad credit.”

Normally, Time Warner Cable reports delinquencies based on the Social Security number attached to the account, but that didn’t happen this time.

The North Carolina Attorney General’s office reports identity confusion is not unprecedented in the state when lazy or untrained employees submit faulty information to credit reporting agencies.  Most companies are not significantly liable for damages resulting from mistaken reporting, even if it results in ruinous declines in credit scores and leaves victims with handfuls of closed accounts or reduced credit lines at escalating interest rates.

In a statement released to the media, the cable company is now blaming the credit bureau for the problem, despite being the instigator of the initial negative collection report:

Time Warner Cable has worked closely with Mr. Graves to help him resolve this unfortunate mistake by the credit bureau. We have both contacted the credit bureau regarding its error, and we will continue advocating for him until his credit rating is restored.

Graves isn’t too happy with that response.

“If it only took them 15 minutes to create this situation, it’s now over six months,” Graves said in frustration. “And they still haven’t gotten it resolved. I’m just totally surprised that they can’t get this resolved as easily as it took to create this situation.”

[flv width=”640″ height=”447″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WFMY Greensboro Identity Confusion Leads to Credit Problems For Triad Man 3-14-12.flv[/flv]

WFMY in Greensboro talks with Keith Graves about his frustrating experience with Time Warner Cable’s identity confusion.  (4 minutes)

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WISH Indianapolis Verizon Safety Tips for Cell Phones 3-7-12.mp4[/flv]

Now is the time to begin preparations for annual spring storms by making sure cell phones and other wireless accessories are ready and available for home and office use in the event of an emergency. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, any basic emergency supply kit should include a fully-charged cell phone. WISH in Indianapolis talks with Verizon about how the company is responding to recent Indiana tornadoes and how it manages its network in storm-damaged regions.  (4 minutes)

A British advertising firm is paying homeless people to act as mobile hotspots for the 4G-challenged in a controversial pilot project that has left some wondering whether it is appropriate to use the disadvantaged as walking wireless access points.

The project took off at this week’s SxSW Interactive conference in Austin, Tex.  Anyone within 20 feet of a roving homeless person outfitted with a transmitting device can make a wireless connection with a 4G network.

BBH New York says it just wants to fill the need for better Internet connectivity at the convention center site.

“Our hope is to create a modern version of this successful model, offering homeless individuals an opportunity to sell a digital service instead of a material commodity,” BBH New York says. “SxSW Interactive attendees can pay what they like to access 4G networks carried by our homeless collaborators.”

BBH has 13 homeless volunteers walking around the convention center announcing they are available to facilitate immediate 4G access for data-hungry attendees.

“Hotspots, Hotspots! If you need to get online, I am your guy,” yelled one homeless volunteer to hundreds of people passing by.

Those who take them up on their offer can make donations for the access, which volunteers get to keep.

The company admits it has received some criticism from those who think the program exploits the homeless, but the company had no shortage of volunteers willing to participate.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/KXAN Austin Project makes homeless a mobile hotspot 3-12-12.mp4[/flv]

KXAN in Austin explores the “Homeless Mobile Hotspot” project that has a lot of people talking at this year’s South by Southwest Interactive conference.  (2 minutes)