Phillip Dampier on USF Reform: It might have been great, it could have been a lot worse, but ultimately it turned out to be not very good.

Last week, the Federal Communications Commission unveiled their grand plan to reform the Universal Service Fund, a program originally designed to subsidize voice telephone service in rural areas deemed to be unprofitable or ridiculously expensive to serve.  Every American with a phone line pays into the fund through a surcharge found on phone bills. Urban Americans effectively subsidize their rural cousins, but the resulting access to telecommunications services have helped rural economies, important industries, and the jobs they bring in agriculture, cattle, resource extraction, and manufacturing.

The era of the voice landline is increasingly over, however, and the original goals of the USF have “evolved” to fund some not-so-rural projects including cell phone service for schools, wireless broadband in Hollywood, and a whole mess of projects critics call waste, fraud, and abuse.  For the last several years, USF critics have accused the program of straying far from its core mission, especially considering the costs passed on to ratepayers.  What originally began as a 5% USF surcharge is today higher than 15%, funding new projects even as Americans increasingly disconnect their landline service.

For at least a decade, proposals to reform the USF program to bridge the next urban-rural divide, namely broadband, have been available for consideration.  Most have been lobbied right off the table by independent rural phone companies who are at risk of failure without the security of the existing subsidy system.  Proposals that survived that challenge next faced larger phone company lobbyists seeking to protect their share of USF money, or by would-be competitors like the wireless industry or cable operators who have generally been barred from the USF Money Party.

This year, FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski finally achieved a unanimous vote to shift USF funding towards the construction and operation of rural broadband networks.  The need for broadband funding in rural areas is acute.  Most commercial providers will candidly admit they have already wired the areas deemed sufficiently profitable to earn a return on the initial investment required to provide the service.  The areas remaining without service are unlikely to get it anytime soon because they are especially rural, have expensive and difficult climate or terrain challenges to overcome, or endure a high rate of poverty among would-be customers, unable to afford the monthly cost for the service.  Some smaller independent phone companies are attempting to provide the service anyway, but too often the result is exceptionally slow speed service at a very high cost.

The new Connect America Fund will shift $4.5 billion annually towards rural broadband construction projects.  Nearly a billion dollars of that will be reserved in a “mobility fund” designated for mobile broadband networks.

The goal is to bring broadband to seven million additional households out the 18 million currently ignored by phone and cable operators.

The FCC believes AT&T will take a new interest in upgrading its rural landline networks, even as the company continues to lobby for the right to abandon them.

Unfortunately, the FCC has set the bar pretty low in its requirements for USF funding.  The FCC defines the minimum level of “broadband” they expect to result from the program — 4/1Mbps.  That’s DSL speed territory and that is no accident.  The phone companies have advocated a “less is more” strategy in broadband speed for years, arguing they can reach more rural customers if speed requirements are kept as low as possible.  DSL networks are distance sensitive.  The faster the minimum speed, the more investment phone companies need to make to reduce the length of copper wiring between their office and the customer.  Arguing 4Mbps is better than nothing has gotten them a long way in Washington, but it also foreshadows the next digital divide — urban/rural broadband speed disparity.  While large cities enjoy speeds of 50Mbps or more, rural towns will still be coping with speeds “up to” 4Mbps.

The FCC does not seem too worried, relying heavily on a mild incentive program to prod providers to upgrade their DSL service to speeds of 6/1.5Mbps.

The irony of asking AT&T to invest in an aging landline network they are lobbying to win the right to abandon is lost on Washington, and future speed upgrades for rural America from companies like Verizon are in serious doubt when they sell off their rural areas to companies like FairPoint and Frontier and leave town.

Critics of USF reform suggest the program is still stacked in favor of the phone companies, and considering the state of their copper wire networks, would-be competitors are scratching their heads.

The cable industry, in particular, is still peeved by reforms they feel leave them at a disadvantage.  Of course, Washington may simply be recognizing the fact cable companies are the least likely to wire rural America, but when they do, the service that results is often faster than what the phone company offers.  The nation’s biggest cable lobbyist — ironically also the former chairman of the FCC, Michael Powell — still feels a little abused after reading the final proposal.

“While we are disappointed in the Commission’s apparent decision to ignore its longstanding principle of competitive neutrality and provide incumbent telephone companies an unwarranted advantage for broadband support,” said National Cable & Telecommunications Association President Michael Powell, “we remain hopeful that the order otherwise reflects the pro-consumer principles of fiscal discipline and technological neutrality that will bring needed accountability and greater efficiency to the existing subsidy system.  We are particularly heartened by the Commission’s efforts to ensure that carriers are fairly compensated for completing VoIP calls.”

Wireless operators are not happy either, because the arcane requirements that come with the USF bureaucracy were written with the phone companies in mind, not them.  Small, family-owned providers find it particularly difficult to do business with the USF, if only because they don’t have the staff or time to navigate through endless documents and forms.  Phone companies do.

Your phone bill is going up.

Many consumer groups are relieved because it could have been much worse.   The FCC could have simply capitulated and adopted the phone companies’ wish-list — the ABC Plan.  Thankfully, they didn’t, but the FCC has naively left the door open to substantial rate increases for consumers by not capping the maximum annual outlay of the fund.  That follows the same recipe that invited higher phone bills and questionable subsidies awarded in an effort to justify the original USF program even after it accomplished most of its goals. Consumers may face initial rate increases of $0.50 almost immediately, and up to $2.50 a month five years from now.

The FCC, unjustifiably optimistic, suspects phone companies and other telecommunications interests won’t gouge customers with higher prices.  They predict rate increases of no more than 10-15 cents a month.  I wouldn’t take that bet and neither will consumer groups.

“We’re going to press the FCC to ensure that these are temporary increases, because history has shown that these types of costs tend to stick around and go on and on and on,” said Parul Desai, policy counsel for Consumers Union.

An even bigger question left unanswered is just how far the FCC will get into the broadband arena when it refuses to take the steps necessary to ensure it has an admission ticket.  The agency has avoided classifying broadband as a telecommunications service, an important distinction that would bolster its authority to oversee the industry.  Without it, some members of Congress, and more importantly the courts, have questioned whether the FCC has any business in the broadband business.  Just one of the many high-powered players in the discussion could test that theory in the courts, and should a judge throw the FCC’s plan out, we’ll be back at square one.

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/C-SPAN Tom Tauke from Verizon on Changes to the Universal Service Fund 10-29-11.flv[/flv]

Verizon’s chief lobbyist Tom Tauke spent a half hour last weekend on C-SPAN taking questions about USF reform and the side issues of IP Interconnection and Net Neutrality policies. Tauke supports consolidation of small phone companies into fewer, larger companies.  He also expands on his company’s lawsuit against Net Neutrality, which fortuitously (for Verizon) will he heard by the same D.C. Court of Appeals that threw out the FCC’s fines against Comcast for throttling broadband connections.  Politico’s Kim Hart participates in the questioning, which also covered wireless spectrum issues impacting Verizon Wireless, AT&T’s stumbling merger deal with T-Mobile, and Verizon’s latest lawsuit against the FCC for data roaming notification rules.  (28 minutes)

Cablevision executives reported dismal financial numbers for the third quarter of this year, as the cable company lost 19,000 cable television customers while profits plummeted some 65% at the Bethpage, N.Y.-based company.

Not even 17,000 new broadband customers could erase the damaging losses incurred by Cablevision cord-cutting, some of it as a result of the cable operator’s damaging retransmission consent disputes that deprived viewers of popular local broadcast outlets and cable channels.  The company lost so much subscriber goodwill, company executives admitted they pared back an anticipated rate increase just to protect themselves from further customer defections.

Programming disputes like this one with WABC-TV and their parent company Disney caused more than a few Cablevision customers to head for the competition.

Cablevision, like Time Warner Cable before it, won’t admit that cable cord-cutting is responsible for what one investment bank fears could be the start of an “ex-growth” era in cable television.  Instead, Cablevision executives continue to blame the poor economy for subscription losses, as well as aggressive pricing competition from their biggest rival — Verizon FiOS.  Adding pressure is the relentless demand for higher programming fees, which directly translates into relentless annual rate increases for cable television service.

“With regard to programming [costs, they are] an issue and it is an expensive part of our business.  It is the single biggest cost item we have,” said Gregg G. Seibert, Cablevision’s chief financial officer and executive vice-president. “And the fact that retransmission consent became necessary from the eyes of broadcasters, particularly after the 2008 recession, has been flowing through our business, and there was a large step up [in fees]. I think that the overall rate of programming [costs] going forward will moderate to some extent naturally.”

Seibert called the aggressive retransmission consent fee disputes between broadcasters and cable operators evidence of the collapse of the traditional “free TV” business model.  Because ad revenues are down, broadcasters are increasingly dependent on fees charged to cable operators for permission to include their stations on the cable dial.  That means cable subscribers are increasingly subsidizing the broadcast television business.

Seibert

Seibert’s revelation came too late to stop some of the nation’s most visible retransmission consent battles between Cablevision and network-owned New York-area television stations and cable networks.  When Cablevision blacked out a local station showing coverage of the World Series during the last dispute, fed up customers decided to take their cable business to Verizon or a satellite TV provider.

Cablevision has been trying to lick their wounds ever since, launching increasingly aggressive pricing promotions and “free gift” offers to keep existing customers while trying to win back old ones.

“We’ve recently introduced an offer that includes a new Apple iPod Touch primarily for win back situations,” said Thomas M. Rutledge, chief operating officer.  “Selling for the Triple Play package of video, data, and voice is now at 74% and roughly half of this selling is for our new Ultimate Triple Play, which includes a new higher-priced Boost Plus [broadband] service and a wireless router.”

Cablevision achieves triple-play signups by heavily discounting the package for new and returning customers.  It also hopes to succeed with a ‘more for less’ pricing strategy, delivering new features and services without necessarily charging extra for all of them.  With discounts, free gifts, and additional services, Cablevision is getting some of their old customers back.

Selling faster broadband is a key component in Cablevision's strategy to attract more broadband customers. Boost Plus delivers 50/8Mbps service for an additional $14.95 a month.

“As of September 30, our win back total is more than 45% of customers who once tried Verizon FiOS,” Rutledge claims.

Rutledge noted Cablevision’s participation in the industry’s TV Everywhere online video initiative has grown even stronger with the recent agreement to provide Cablevision cable-TV customers free access to Turner-owned cable network programming.

Seibert admits the more competitive business environment and high profile programming disputes in suburban New York City are impacting profits.

“We had a few significant items in the quarter affecting our results including higher programing costs and higher sales in marketing as we continue to aggressively promote our products and services while revenue growth was essentially flat,” Seibert said.

Those challenges are creating a sense of unease on Wall Street regarding the cable business’ core product: cable television and the increasingly aggressive pricing promotions necessary to keep customers from disconnecting service.

“There is growing concern among the investor community about [the] whole [cable] industry going to ex-growth,” said Jason Bazinet from Citigroup.

Rutledge

“Programming costs are rising faster than video revenues,” Sanford C. Bernstein, an analyst for Craig Moffett, told the Wall Street Journal. “Unless there’s growth somewhere else in the business model, you’ve got the worst of all worlds: a slow-or no-growing business with lower margins.”

Rutledge outlined Wi-Fi and broadband enhancements as part of Cablevision’s priorities for the upcoming quarter:

“We’ve been building out a Wi-Fi network and we’ve had continuous subscriber utilization increases on that network.  We now have more than one-half-million devices out there that can use Wi-Fi and watch our full cable television service in the home.

“And we’re deploying a new Boost product with higher speed broadband, which includes a more sophisticated wireless router as part of that package.

“We think Wi-Fi is a major strategic part of our business. We think that we can continue to take advantage of that. We think our video product today as a result of Wi-Fi is a superior product to our competitors – all of our competitors, and we think that our data service is enhanced by the Wi-Fi outside the home, and we continue to try to build value for our customers and take market share.”

The cable company is already aggressively marketing its Boost Plus service, which delivers 50/8Mbps broadband for an additional charge of $14.95 a month on top of the standard broadband rate.

Time Warner Cable experienced another challenging quarter, continuing to lose cable TV customers who either drop or pare back their television service, often in favor of broadband.

The company reported losses of an additional 128,000 video subscribers during the third quarter, but is partly winning that revenue back with new broadband customers — 89,000 of them in the last three months.

“Broadband is a powerful service for which there appears to be unquestionable consumer thirst,” Time Warner Cable CEO Glenn Britt said on the investor call. “Over time, we will contribute more of our plant’s capacity to broadband.”

The company is also poised to expand its marketing to win new broadband customers away from their primary competition — telephone company DSL service.  Company officials remain confounded by customers who subscribe to Time Warner’s cable TV service and take broadband from “inferior” phone company-delivered DSL.  Time Warner will continue to target these customers with win-over promotions offering a year of Road Runner Standard Service at the $29.95 promotional price point.

For the company as a whole, this is the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year residential broadband revenue improvement, coming from a combination of higher-priced, faster speed tiers, price increases, and subscriber additions.  The company’s DOCSIS 3 upgrade has proven itself a winner for customers and the company, with 18 percent of Time Warner subscribers now choosing 30 or 50Mbps broadband services.

Wall Street expressed some concern about statements from CEO Glenn Britt that the company was going to expand capital spending on broadband to handle increasing demand, especially from online video.  That concern comes despite the fact the company’s “capital intensity” (spending) from January-September was the lowest in the history of the company.  The full year’s capital spending is on track to reach up to $3 billion, which is consistent with what the company spent last year.

Glenn Britt

So despite the plans to spend more on broadband, that spending is actually in line with previous years.

In response to an opening question from Deutsche Bank’s Doug Mitchelson, Britt delivered an extended explanation downplaying the company’s spending plans:

In a way, there’s nothing really new here. I think you’ve seen this trend for a while. Our broadband product is very strong.

As most people know, the usage of broadband is skyrocketing, as it has been for some time. And that means that we will need to spend more money on it. We have been already, both in capital and operating expenses.

The great thing about the Internet is lots of third parties dream up lots of new applications that require more speed and more bandwidth. And we anticipate that we’re going to have to devote more capacity to that over time. We will do that by gradually removing our analog signals from our — analog TV signals from our plan. We’ve been doing that over the last several years by migrating to digital using Switched Digital technology. And over the next several years, we’ll be going all digital in the TV space.

I don’t see this driving a dramatic change in our cap spending, I think, to the core of your questions. The spending has been going on for a while, and I think you’re seeing a change in mix. The video spending is going down over time. The business services is going to go up, although it didn’t this quarter. And you’re going to see the spending on broadband going up. But I don’t think the overall trajectory is mutually different.

This quarter, the company’s conference call seemed to embrace greater broadband usage, and pondering Internet Overcharging schemes like usage caps or usage-based billing never came up.  But Richard Greenfield from BTIG alluded to usage in his questions to Rob Marcus, president and chief operating officer at Time Warner Cable.

“I think we’re somewhere in the 7GB a month [range] of downstream bandwidth on a median basis,” Marcus said. “The average is much higher given the disproportionate usage by our high-end users.”

There were plenty of other facts to be gleaned from this morning’s conference call:

TV

• Whole Home DVR service has been introduced nationwide.  In the coming year, Time Warner will begin deploying “home gateways,” which reduce equipment costs;
• Time Warner is testing improved cloud-based set top boxes with home networking capabilities in parts of Syracuse, Los Angeles and Dallas.  These boxes will expand across the country in 2012.  They offer better search capability and deliver an improved user experience;
• 60% of customers reject “triple-play” offers from Time Warner and choose either “single” or “double-play” service instead;
• Much of Time Warner’s revenue growth is coming from rate increases on programming, services, and equipment;
• TV Essentials, the smaller, less expensive video package, is now available in New York City and Northeast Ohio, as well as upstate New York. It will launch nationwide by year end.  Unsurprisingly, company officials admit the less-than-attractive channel lineup has resulted in the vast majority of customers calling about the offering taking the traditional video package instead;
• Customers continue to drop ancillary services to cut their cable bill.  The increasingly expensive DVR box is a new target for cutting, and premium movie channels, adult pay-per-view, and mini-pay services all continue to suffer significant declines in business;
• The Google-Motorola deal will likely have little impact on Time Warner’s set top boxes, which primarily come from Cisco and Samsung.

Broadband

• By the end of the year, Time Warner plans to offer an Android-based TV Everywhere application similar to the existing iPad application, which will also continue to be upgraded to include on-demand offerings;
• Time Warner will make their TV Everywhere service available on game consoles, smart TVs and PCs in the near future;
• New York City customers will soon be able to select from a range of local broadcast stations on the company’s iPad app.  Other markets will start to see local channels added to this app in 2012;
• Major parts of Time Warner’s capital investments this year are: building data centers in Charlotte and Denver, conversion to all-digital in Maine to make room for enhanced broadband, and the continued rollout of DOCSIS 3.0. The company is also continuing to spend significantly on wiring commercial buildings to sell services to business customers;
• TV Essentials customers will soon be offered a “lite user” slower speed discount broadband plan to accompany their video package;
• In Los Angeles, Wideband 50Mbps customers also get 2 gigabytes of 4G/3G mobile broadband for no additional monthly charge on the company-branded Clearwire service. For Turbo Plus and Wideband 30Mbps customers, they can get the same 4G/3G capability for an additional $10 a month. Standard and Turbo customers can get it for an extra $20.  The company’s mobile broadband add-on product has not enjoyed much success with paying customers, however.  Time Warner hopes the value-added bundling of mobile broadband will attract more interest.

Phone

• Cord-cutting is now impacting Time Warner “digital phone” service, too.  Customers are increasingly reluctant to purchase phone service from any landline provider.  Now Time Warner’s regular pricing is starting to cost them business.  Executives revealed Time Warner’s “digital phone” service costs the company $9.06 to provide.  They charge consumers $30.  With that kind of profit margin, the company admits it will have to get more aggressive in pricing to attract new customers (and potentially keep existing ones);
• Time Warner lost 8,000 residential voice line customers last quarter, cushioned by net additions of 13,000 business line customers;
• The company continues to show little interest in selling cell phone products or services, either owned by themselves or others.  Mobile data remains an exception.

A unknown number of Verizon Wireless customers were treated to some welcome news just days before the latest iPhone arrived for sale: early upgrades worth up to $300 in return for a two-year contract extension.  The offer arrived in an e-mail message the company sent to customers like Leslie Harsh of Omaha, Neb.

“Congratulations,” it read. “You’ve earned a new phone.”

Wireless carriers often waive two year waiting periods for good customers who are itching to get their hands on a new phone, and the Harsh family jumped in the car and headed on down to several local Verizon Wireless stores in search of a new iPhone 4S.

But high demand and the pesky fine print got in the way.

The offer turned out to only be valid on phones already in-stock in local stores, and with the unprecedented demand for the latest iPhone, Harsh was initially disappointed as the Omaha World-Herald reports:

Verizon representatives at the store told Harsh that the offer worked only with phones that the store had in stock. And since Apple and its cellular partners — AT&T, Verizon and Sprint — sold more than 4 million iPhone 4S handsets combined over the weekend, it was no surprise that the store didn’t have any of her chosen phone in stock.

Harsh then asked if she could preorder the phone. No dice, Verizon representatives said. The company’s computer system wouldn’t allow it because of an agreement with Apple.

So Harsh left without a new phone, hoping to use the offer next time one of Verizon’s Omaha-area stores had an iPhone 4S in stock.

That disappointment turned to frustration when Verizon sent out another e-mail days later rescinding the offer:

“Our sincere apologies. We got a bit ahead of ourselves,” began the message, which then withdrew the offer and threw in a consolation price — 30 percent off in-store accessories some customers think are overpriced to begin with.  To add salt to the wound, Apple and Bose products were excluded from the discount.

Verizon’s apology and coupon didn’t satisfy Harsh, who spend time and gas money scouring Omaha for the newest Apple phone.  She wants Verizon to uphold the original deal, but so far, the company hasn’t agreed.

Stop the Cap! recommends customers who find themselves in such situations escalate the matter to the executive customer service level and move beyond in-store and front line employees, who are unlikely to be empowered to grant special requests.  Harsh’s upgrade request is not uncommon, and carriers often grant them to good customers.  Harsh spends over $100 a month on her Verizon plan, which puts her in good favor with the phone company.

Filing a complaint with the Better Business Bureau will automatically escalate her plight to executive level customer service at Verizon.  If she indicates this situation is serious enough to end her relationship with Verizon if they do not make amends, it’s likely the company will bend if Harsh signs a two-year contract extension, especially because they gave her the idea in the first place.

Wildfires can result when overloaded utility poles topple in California's Santa Ana winds.

The California Public Utilities Commission’s Consumer Protection and Safety Division is recommending $99 million in fines against the local power utility and several phone companies for overloading power poles with cables which toppled and started a major wildfire in Malibu Canyon in 2007.

Even worse, the PUC alleges, the power company lied to investigators and destroyed evidence to cover up the cause of the blaze, which burned more than a dozen structures to the ground and destroyed dozens of vehicles.

Named in addition to Southern California Edison are phone companies: Verizon Wireless, AT&T, Sprint, and NextC Networks of California. All are being blamed for loading up phone poles with excessive wiring for both traditional utility service and backhaul wired connections to serve area cell towers. The bulk of the proposed fine is likely to be lodged against Edison because of the evidence tampering allegations, but phone companies are also deemed liable.

At issue are the annual bouts of Santa Ana winds which can create gusts up to 80mph or higher. Most utility poles were designed to support a load of a few power cables, landline phone service, and cable television lines. But in many parts of canyon country, wireless phone companies rely heavily on utility poles to connect to their network of cell towers which are strategically located on ridges and mountains to serve populated valley regions below. While some cell phone companies now rely on fiber connections, many also still utilize a series of copper wire circuits to provide sufficient wireless capacity. In some cases, companies may hang several cables to meet bandwidth needs. The more cables, the more susceptible poles become to wind loads, which can literally snap poles in half or force them out of the ground in high wind gusts.

When electric lines topple, they can start fires that quickly grow out of control in remote areas.

Downed power lines are blamed for a number of wildfires in California, including the 2008 Sesnon fire in the San Fernando Valley. Fire investigators and local officials have pressured utility companies to mitigate the hazards from downed power lines by keeping excess cables and equipment off the poles.

Hans Laetz, a Malibu resident who has lived with what he calls “spindly-looking utility poles” for more than a decade was not surprised when life-threatening wildfires were blamed on downed lines.

“My family and my neighbors in Malibu are being placed at risk,” Laetz told the Los Angeles Times. “I drove under those poles on Malibu Canyon Road for 10 years, and I thought one of these days, one of those poles was going to fall. You could tell this was a disaster waiting to happen…. And then it happened.”

Edison denied the allegations it mislead investigators and called the proposed fine “excessive.”