A Wall Street analyst says Sprint has a 50/50 chance of being forced into bankruptcy, either pulling through a difficult upgrade to LTE 4G and stabilizing its partnership with Clearwire, or sinking under a load of debt incurred by Apple’s iPhone and network upgrade expenses.

Sanford Bernstein Research analyst Craig Moffett downgraded Sprint this morning from “market perform” to “underperform,” noting Sprint’s complicated five year credit default swap financing deal already prices in a 50/50 chance Sprint will be forced into Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization.

Moffett told investors he believes Sprint’s near term future can be described in one of two ways:

“In the first, the company successfully navigates its complicated Network Vision upgrade, stabilizes Clearwire‘s financial position, and delivers a compelling 4G product. In the second, some combination of its gargantuan take-or-pay contract with Apple, a hobbled 4G offering, and a stupendous debt burden bring the company to its knees.”

Moffett says Sprint’s biggest risk may come from Apple’s forthcoming 4G LTE iPhone, which he does not believe will work well on Sprint’s network.

“The problem is 4G. Sprint doesn’t have enough free-and-clear spectrum on which to launch a competitive LTE network, and it doesn’t have the money to clear spectrum that’s already in use,” Moffett said. “We expect Sprint’s competitiveness to begin to backslide when LTE becomes the nation’s de facto standard.”

Sprint continues to rely primarily on its troubled partner Clearwire for 4G service, which uses the aging WiMAX standard other carriers abroad are decommissioning.

With the iPhone 5 due later this year, should it provide access to 4G LTE service, Sprint could be in real trouble.  By fall, Sprint’s LTE network is expected to only provide limited coverage in a handful of cities, and on PCS spectrum less suitable for penetrating buildings.  Sprint would be forced to compete against Verizon’s nearly-completed LTE network as well as AT&T’s mixture of LTE and HSPA+ 4G services.  Verizon and AT&T will operate their 4G networks on 700MHz spectrum which can deliver robust signals indoors and out.

“Unfortunately, at this point we simply don’t believe there is any analytical framework that provides strong conviction as to whether Sprint can or cannot avoid bankruptcy over the next four years or so,” Moffett says. “Instead, one is left with this; are the perceived risks rising, or are they falling? We conclude … that risks of bankruptcy are rising, and that perceived risks will rise still further with the release of the first 4G iPhone.”

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Sprint to Go Bankrupt 3-19-12.flv[/flv]

CNBC speaks with Craig Moffett about the challenges afflicting Sprint’s effort to build a 4G LTE network and how a bankruptcy might affect customers.  (4 minutes)

In the era of today’s “triple play” package of voice, data, and phone service, satellite television providers have been left at a competitive disadvantage.  Both Dish Network and DirecTV can sell you all the television signals you want, but their satellite-based distribution limits the options to include broadband and telephone service in the package.  Now Dish wants to convert some of their satellite spectrum to sell voice and data service over a network of land based wireless towers that will put the company in direct competition with AT&T and Verizon Wireless.

Dish CEO Charlie Ergen hopes to avoid making the same mistakes that threaten to kill a similar venture — LightSquared, because of interference concerns.

Dish’s spectrum is way, way up the radio dial, above 2,000MHz.  Other spectrum users in the neighborhood are primarily low-powered, line of sight communications, often satellite-based.  LightSquared’s service would have operated at around 1,500MHz, had it not obliterated reception of global positioning satellite services (GPS) in certain instances.  Whenever new spectrum users begin to move into a neighborhood, those already there feel threatened, primarily from the fear of interference problems.

Both LightSquared and Dish’s proposed services operate at considerably higher power than other incumbent users, and interference to existing services is a proven problem when sensitive reception equipment is unprepared to deal with signal overload.  The Federal Communications Commission found just cause to deny LightSquared operating permission for precisely that reason.  Ergen hopes to sell the FCC on a plan he says will avoid those interference problems.

Ergen

Ergen’s spectrum doesn’t sit immediately next door to other, existing users.  His frequencies are comparable to living the next block over, and there is a protective fence keeping the neighbors apart.

“It’s not as close to GPS, so it’s unlikely to interfere,” Matthew Desch, chief executive officer of Iridium Communications Inc., which operates more than 60 satellites, told Bloomberg News. “But the approval is going to take some time. The FCC is going to make sure they don’t have another LightSquared problem on their hands.”

Mike Marcus, director of Marcus Spectrum Solutions LLC adds Dish has some space between its frequencies — known as a guard band — and other users.  Marcus believes Dish won’t have an interference problem unless existing wireless carriers market handsets and other equipment insufficiently selective to reject interference from higher powered users nearby.

But whether Dish will ultimately spend the billions required to build a nationwide satellite and land-based broadband and phone network to accompany its existing satellite service remains unknown.

Bloomberg reports Wall Street analysts may prefer Dish sell its spectrum assets for a quick profit.  Barclays Capital estimates Dish’s spectrum could net the company about $7.3 billion.  If AT&T or Verizon Wireless were buyers, it would also protect them from new competition in the wireless market.

Regulators may be prepared to limit any such sale, however.  Industry analysts note a similar license for LightSquared required government approval before leasing capacity (or selling the network outright) to AT&T or Verizon Wireless.  The government may seek the same limits on Dish Network’s spectrum.

Ergen may have the final word however.

Vijay Jayant, an analyst at ISI Group in New York:

If the government sets rules that limit how Dish can use the spectrum, Ergen may choose to hoard it, said Jayant, which could be antithetical to the government’s mission of promoting wireless competition.

“Dish isn’t a patsy for the government,” Jayant said. “Dish’s attitude is, ‘Make the rules fair and we’ll do the right thing. Make them unfair and we’ll sit on the spectrum,’ and it will be another black eye for the government.”

Sen. Paul Hornback (R-AT&T)

A Kentucky state senate panel on Tuesday approved a bill admittedly-authored by AT&T that could allow the company to abandon providing basic telephone service in areas deemed not sufficiently profitable.

Senate Bill 12 is just the latest effort by AT&T to end “Universal Service,” the basic principal that all Americans should have equal access to basic landline telephone service.

The proposed legislation would allow the three largest phone companies in Kentucky — AT&T, Windstream, and Cincinnati Bell to abandon customers who, in one possible scenario, do not agree to a more deluxe feature package that includes long distance calling, wireless service, and/or broadband.

“This bill represents a grave threat to continued, stand-alone, basic telephone service for many Kentuckians who don’t have the luxury of access to Twitter and all the things that we in urban areas tend to take for granted,” Tom FitzGerald, director of the Kentucky Resources Council told the Lexington Herald-Leader.

AT&T says allowing it the right to terminate rural landline service would “spur innovation and create jobs.” It would also strip Kentucky of its power to investigate and force resolutions of consumer complaints.

The optics of the bill’s primary sponsor, Sen. Paul Hornback (R-Shelbyville/AT&T), sitting next to the two AT&T executives who authored the bill as he testified before the Senate Committee on Economic Development, Tourism and Labor was not lost on the bill’s opponents.

“It’s obvious who he is really working for,” said our regular Kentucky reader Paul in Louisville.

Daniel, the Stop the Cap! reader who first shared the story with us, is not happy either.

“This infuriates me,” he writes. “If AT&T gets their way, they will have less reason to invest in areas that are underserved or not served at all, and allow them to further push people to their horrific cell service.”

Daniel barely gets DSL from AT&T — 3Mbps if he’s lucky, and most of his neighbors cannot get any broadband from the company because they don’t officially service the area with broadband.  Daniel suspects once AT&T is deregulated further, they will have even fewer reasons to focus on less-populated regions of the state.

Hornback: "Nobody knows better than AT&T what the company needs the legislature to do for it."

“AT&T is my only reliable option – and if I can’t keep their Internet service then I will lose my job,” he says.

In 2006, AT&T helped push through a deregulation measure that stripped the Kentucky Public Service Commission of its ability to oversee prices for telecommunications services in the state. Customers of both AT&T and Cincinnati Bell soon saw price increases after the legislation passed with arguably no improvement in service.

Hornback argues S.12 will help “modernize telecommunications in the state of Kentucky,” without explaining exactly how abandoning customers enhances their level of service.

AT&T says they will not completely exit rural Kentucky if given the power to disconnect its landline network.  It can sell rural customers AT&T cell phone service instead. Critics say that comes at a substantially higher price and offers only limited broadband.

Hornback defended that, suggesting the company is wasting money and resources keeping its current antiquated landline facilities when it might be better spending that money on wireless services.

But customers would face charges starting at nearly $40 a month after taxes and fees for a basic AT&T wireless plan with as few as 200 calling minutes a month.

Hornback got around initial opposition to an earlier measure he introduced — SB 135, by reintroducing essentially the same measure inside another unrelated bill.  Hornback said that was an effort to give the legislation “a fresh start” in light of heated criticism from consumer groups, the AARP, and even Kentucky businesses.

The committee voted 9-1 for Hornback/AT&T’s measure and sent the bill forward to the Senate floor.  The single “no” vote came from Sen. Denise Harper Angel (D-Louisville).

Phone companies in Kentucky

AT&T’s clout in the state capital is unparalleled according to the newspaper:

It employs 31 legislative lobbyists, including a former PSC vice chairwoman and past chairs of the state Democratic and Republican parties, spending about $80,000 last year on legislative lobbying. Its political action committee has given at least $91,000 in state political donations since 2007.

Remarkably, Hornback defended AT&T’s authorship of his bill that would directly benefit the company’s interests.

Nobody knows better than AT&T what the company needs the legislature to do for it, Hornback said.

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WISH Indianapolis Verizon Safety Tips for Cell Phones 3-7-12.mp4[/flv]

Now is the time to begin preparations for annual spring storms by making sure cell phones and other wireless accessories are ready and available for home and office use in the event of an emergency. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, any basic emergency supply kit should include a fully-charged cell phone. WISH in Indianapolis talks with Verizon about how the company is responding to recent Indiana tornadoes and how it manages its network in storm-damaged regions.  (4 minutes)

A British advertising firm is paying homeless people to act as mobile hotspots for the 4G-challenged in a controversial pilot project that has left some wondering whether it is appropriate to use the disadvantaged as walking wireless access points.

The project took off at this week’s SxSW Interactive conference in Austin, Tex.  Anyone within 20 feet of a roving homeless person outfitted with a transmitting device can make a wireless connection with a 4G network.

BBH New York says it just wants to fill the need for better Internet connectivity at the convention center site.

“Our hope is to create a modern version of this successful model, offering homeless individuals an opportunity to sell a digital service instead of a material commodity,” BBH New York says. “SxSW Interactive attendees can pay what they like to access 4G networks carried by our homeless collaborators.”

BBH has 13 homeless volunteers walking around the convention center announcing they are available to facilitate immediate 4G access for data-hungry attendees.

“Hotspots, Hotspots! If you need to get online, I am your guy,” yelled one homeless volunteer to hundreds of people passing by.

Those who take them up on their offer can make donations for the access, which volunteers get to keep.

The company admits it has received some criticism from those who think the program exploits the homeless, but the company had no shortage of volunteers willing to participate.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/KXAN Austin Project makes homeless a mobile hotspot 3-12-12.mp4[/flv]

KXAN in Austin explores the “Homeless Mobile Hotspot” project that has a lot of people talking at this year’s South by Southwest Interactive conference.  (2 minutes)