AT&T and Verizon: The Doublemint Twins of Wireless

Wireless carriers other than AT&T and Verizon Wireless have joined forces asking federal regulators to help level the playing field in wireless competition.

At this week’s convention of the newly-relaunched Competitive Carrier Association (CCA), Sprint, T-Mobile USA, Clearwire, C Spire, and more than 100 other small regional rural carriers joined forces in Las Vegas to sound the alarm about a wireless duopoly restraining competition and raising prices for consumers.

“Humpty Dumpty has been put back together again,” said C Spire CEO Hu Meena. “And while the identical twins sometimes agree to meet and discuss industry issues with other industry players, they seldom, if ever, support action that might better the industry as a whole.”

C Spire should know. The company filed a lawsuit against AT&T earlier this year claiming the phone giant manipulated its 700MHz band allocation to lock C Spire customers out of getting access to the latest smartphones.

“At some point, and that time is coming, regulators and politicians are going to have to acknowledge they have a choice to make: they are going to have to decide whether the communications industry, the fundamental driver of the information economy, is going to be regulated by true, healthy competition or by the government,” Meena said.

In the last 20 years, rampant consolidation has reduced the number of national wireless carriers down to four — Verizon Wireless, AT&T, Sprint, and T-Mobile. Filling in the gaps are various regional providers, all who depend on one of the major four to provide reasonable roaming service for customers traveling beyond the service areas of smaller companies. Without reasonable roaming, competitors are left at a serious disadvantage.

Another major problem is access to the latest smartphones. Major manufacturers largely design and market cell phones for the largest four companies, often relegating smaller providers to sell older or less prominent phones to customers. When phones do not work on the spectrum acquired by smaller competitors, roaming becomes a problem.

But beyond those issues is the question of wireless spectrum. Traditionally sold in competitive auctions, the deepest pocketed companies traditionally win the bulk of frequencies, leaving competitors with less desirable spectrum that has difficulty penetrating buildings or requires a more robust cell tower network.

Meena

Members of the CCA recognize that mergers and consolidation can bring costs down through economy of scale, but in their eyes, AT&T and Verizon’s actions have promulgated a new paradigm for wireless on Wall Street: consolidation around a handful of wireless carriers is healthy; having too many competitors is inefficient.

“Consolidation can introduce business efficiencies,” said Michael Prior, CEO of Atlantic Tele-Network. “But government has a role in making sure that infrastructure is used in a way that works for the entire country. All we’re asking the FCC to do is to make sure there is a level playing field.”

Observers expect the CCA to ask the FCC to set aside spectrum in future wireless auctions exclusively for smaller carriers to help protect what competition still exists.

“There used to be dozens of railroad companies,” Prior noted. “But the government didn’t allow certain companies to develop rails that wouldn’t allow trains to interconnect to rails run by other companies.”

Meena warned the same thing could happen in the wireless industry.

“We know what happened in the first 20 years of the industry where we have had many healthy competitors,” Meena said. “There remains a false hope among too many carriers that the duopoly will one day become reasonable. But, we all know, whether we choose to admit it or not, that until all competitive carriers become fully committed to work together for open competition, the wireless industry playing field will remain harmfully tilted toward the duopoly. They will never give an inch unless and until they have to do so.”

Apple’s newest iPhone is proving to be a mixed blessing for wireless carriers and their Wall Street investors as company margins suffer from the subsidies paid to woo customers with discounted phones.

The biggest winner remains Apple, which charges between $649-849 for an iPhone 5 that IHSiSuppli estimates costs between $207-238 to manufacture, depending on the amount of memory included. Regardless of how much you pay for your next iPhone with a 2-year contract, Apple gets a much larger wholesale price, upfront.

Barclays analyst James Ratcliffe estimates AT&T, Verizon Wireless, and Sprint are providing nearly $400 in advance subsidies to reduce the contract price of the iPhone to between $199 and $399. That subsidy is 60 percent higher than comparable Android smartphones.

“We always say an Apple a day keeps the profits away,” Neil Montefiore, chief executive of Singapore wireless carrier Starhub said during an August earnings conference call.

Wireless carriers have to report the subsidy on balance sheets as a drop in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (called EBIDTA on Wall Street). AT&T and Verizon typically don’t see profits from Android smartphone customers until 5-6 months after selling them a new phone. Apple iPhone customers are unprofitable for up to nine months.

According to Reuters, profit margins will fall for America’s two largest cell phone companies because of the newest iPhone.

AT&T’s margin is expected to fall from 45 percent in the second quarter to 40.8 percent in the third quarter and 35.7 percent in the fourth quarter. Verizon’s margin is expected to fall from 49 percent in the second quarter to 47.4 percent in the third quarter and 43.6 percent in the fourth quarter.

Sprint CEO Dan Hesse

Under pressure from investors, wireless carriers are trying harder than ever to reduce the financial hit from the endless two-year upgrade cycle most North Americans have gotten used to over more than a decade.

For most, changing data pricing has been the key to earlier profits. Both AT&T and Verizon Wireless have eliminated unlimited data plans for new customers, and Verizon has taken away subsidies for customers holding onto a grandfathered unlimited plan. As contracts expire, customers seeking upgrades must either purchase their next phone at the unsubsidized price or give up their unlimited plan for good.

Sprint continues to bank on its unlimited data offer bundled with Apple’s iPhone 5 as an important marketing tool to attract new customers. It has worked for them, but the company may eventually capitalize on that growth with increased prices, but not before Sprint completes an ambitious upgrade to a 4G LTE nationwide network.

“We have a competitive disadvantage in terms of LTE footprint,” CEO Dan Hesse told investors. “You don’t increase your price when you have a network footprint disadvantage. You want to wait and think of that until you get to that point.”

The foundation for future profits come from data usage.

Verizon’s chief financial officer Fran Shammo believes Verizon Wireless’ foundation for higher profits will come from their new family shared data plans.

“When you think about revenue growth into the future, the shared revenue plan and what I’ll call revenue per account if you will, is really the critical piece because there are two functions,” Shammo told investors last week. “One is get people to share so that data becomes the most significant piece of the plan and the more data they consume the more they will have to buy up in bundles.”

“And the second one is make it easier for customers to attach more devices. So when you think about that future of the car, the home, medical devices, and anything else that you want to attach to that wireless network, […] I get incremental dollars for each device that’s attached and that is really what drives the future revenue growth.”

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CBS Sprint CEO talks iPhone 5 and unlimited data strategy 9-20-12.flv[/flv]

Sprint CEO Dan Hesse last week appeared on CBS’ “This Morning” to discuss the arrival of Apple’s newest iPhone and the company’s unlimited wireless data plan.  (4 minutes)

AT&T customers upgrading to Apple’s newest iPhone will be able to keep their grandfathered unlimited data plan and purchase the phone at discounted prices starting at $199, with a new two-year contract.

AT&T’s definition of “unlimited” has, for at least a year, actually meant up to 3GB of usage before throttling your 3G speeds to something comparable to dial-up Internet. But with the iPhone 5 ready to run on AT&T’s higher capacity 4G network, the company is increasing the limit to 5GB per month.

AT&T has been working hard to hold onto its significant base of iPhone owners, who have endured dropped calls and slow data in many cities for the last several years.

Customers planning to leave AT&T will find a considerably less-friendly attitude at Verizon Wireless, where new customers are compelled to sign up for a Share Everything plan that starts with just 1GB of usage per month.

Sprint is retaining its unlimited smartphone data plan with no hidden limits or speed throttles, but Sprint’s overburdened 3G network is not known for fast and reliable speed, and the company’s aging 4G Clearwire WiMAX network cannot perform as well as Sprint’s forthcoming LTE counterpart, which has only appeared in a handful of cities so far.

The iPhone 5 will be the first Apple phone ready to take advantage of 4G LTE speeds, which could give those new networks a real workout as millions of new iPhone owners pile on.

Sprint has launched a new ad series and accompanying web site to warn consumers that choosing Verizon’s new Share Everything data plans can give you a big headache and a higher monthly bill.

“The concept of sharing a monthly data allowance across a family or group of users increases the likelihood for a surprise monthly bill due to data overage charges,” said Caralene Robinson, vice president of brand strategy and marketing communications for Sprint. “Data usage continues to increase and consumers value Truly Unlimited data because it’s simple and straightforward.”

Sprint argues that customers have enough trouble differentiating the usage of the applications they run themselves. When sharing a data plan with other members of a family, it can quickly become impossible to know exactly who is consuming what. That makes it easy to exceed a monthly usage allowance, which results in costly overlimit fees. Tracking usage and the inevitable arguments that will result at the dinner table make Verizon’s new share plans a real headache in Sprint’s view.

Sprint proposes that customers switch to their Truly Unlimited data plan, which has no limits and also costs less than Verizon’s shared data plan. Sprint also continues to sell budget plans that offer a calling allowance in return for a reduced price. Verizon now only sells unlimited voice minutes bundled into their Share Everything plans.

Unlike most carriers who boast customers can send millions of e-mails or visit hundreds of thousands of web pages with a low allowance data plan, Sprint explains what a 1GB limit really means when customers use increasingly popular streaming services and apps. It turns out Verizon’s 1GB allowance plan does not deliver that much.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Sprint Say No to Sharing – Family Meeting.flv[/flv]

Sprint launches its “Say No To Sharing” and “Say Yes To Sprint” campaign with this “Family Meeting” ad, which shows a family debating how to divide up their shared data plan and avoid overlimit fees.  (1 minute)

T-Mobile is proving once again that as an independent cell phone provider, it is prepared to be a scrappy competitor for your wireless dollar. America’s fourth largest cell phone company today announced it was getting into an emerging “unlimited data” war with its larger competitor Sprint and smaller contender MetroPCS, announcing it will bring back a truly unlimited data plan for its customers.

“We want to double-down on worry-free (marketing),” said Harry Thomas, T-Mobile’s director of marketing. “We want to eliminate the situation of ‘Do I want to stream Netflix for kids or worry about data overage?’ ”

Starting Sept. 5, T-Mobile’s Unlimited Nationwide 4G Data plan will be available for $20 per month when added to a Value voice and text plan or $30 per month when added to a Classic voice and text plan. For example, a single line Value plan with unlimited talk and text combined with unlimited nationwide 4G data will cost $69.99 or a single line Classic plan with unlimited talk, unlimited text and unlimited nationwide 4G data will cost $89.99.  The plan cannot be combined with Smartphone Mobile Hotspot/tethering. Customers who want to share their phone’s data service with other devices will have to choose between a 5GB or 10GB add-on option instead.

TmoNews obtained this screen shot courtesy of an anonymous employee at T-Mobile USA.

T-Mobile says their new unlimited 4G data plan comes without tricks or traps, promising no data caps, speed limits/throttles or bill shock from overlimit fees. But like every provider, T-Mobile will have a provision in its terms of use that allows it to cut the data usage party short in cases of exceptionally extraordinary usage, but the company says it will enforce that only in the most extreme cases.

“We’re big believers in customer-driven innovation, and our Unlimited Nationwide 4G Data plan is the answer to customers who are frustrated by the cost, complexity and congested networks of our competitors,” said Kevin McLaughlin, vice president, marketing, T-Mobile USA.  “Consumers want the freedom of unlimited 4G data. Our bold move to be the only wireless carrier to offer an Unlimited Nationwide 4G Data plan reinforces our value leadership and capitalizes on the strength of our nationwide 4G network.”

T-Mobile doesn’t consider Sprint’s “truly unlimited” plan in the same class, because it currently operates on a much slower “4G” standard called WiMAX, which Sprint is moving rapidly away from. Many T-Mobile customers use the company’s 4G-like HSPA+ network for data, which offers respectable speeds if your phone supports the standard (the Apple iPhone, for example, does not.) T-Mobile is moving forward on its own upgrade to 4G LTE starting in 2013.

T-Mobile’s announcement comes one day after MetroPCS, a regional carrier, announced its own limited-time promotion offering unlimited talk, text, and data for $55 a month (up to three additional lines can be added for $50 a month each). Once a customer signs up for the unlimited service promotion, they can keep it as long as they remain a customer.

The two attention to unlimited data plans from the three carriers are in marked contrast to AT&T and Verizon Wireless, which have both moved to curb unlimited use plans — switching customers to usage allowances and overlimit fees. Both companies, considerably larger than any of their competitors, claim unlimited data is impossible to offer because of wireless spectrum shortages and the expense of continually upgrading networks to meet demand.

But this does not seem to pose any problem for Sprint, T-Mobile, or MetroPCS.

Wall Street believes the new interest in unlimited data is a marketing move to differentiate the smaller companies from the two dominant providers.

Wells Fargo analyst Jennifer Fritzsche wrote in a research note to her investor clients that T-Mobile is strategically re-positioning itself in the market to attract new customers.

“We believe T-Mobile felt the need to make some change in order to attract attention,” wrote Fritzsche.

Other analysts believe T-Mobile needed a “game-changing” marketing move to help it recover from its ongoing losses of contract customers. The company has been losing just over 500,000 “branded” contract customers every quarter for the last year.

The pricing and service changes may require Sprint to revisit its current rates.

Sprint’s $109.99 Simply Everything plan offers unlimited data, text, and voice — and runs $20 higher per month than T-Mobile’s forthcoming offer, $55 more than MetroPCS.