Cablevision may eventually get out of the cable television business.

Although industry analysts, consumer advocates, and technology columnists have long proclaimed the era of “cord cutting” is upon us, cable operators have always been in denial the product that got them their multi-billion dollar business — selling packages of television channels — is rapidly becoming obsolete.

But at least one CEO sees the writing on the wall.

If you don’t “ride the wave” you “get eaten by the wave,” declared Cablevision CEO James Dolan.

The Wall Street Journal sat down for a lengthy interview with Dolan, who predicted “there could come a day” when the cable television company quits selling television service, because a growing number of viewers have shifted to online video.

Dolan, like many Americans, isn’t watching television as much as he used to, and admitted that both he and his young children prefer spending their viewing time with Netflix, not Cablevision’s television package.

Jim Dolan

Dolan worries the next generation of television viewers don’t need or want a cable television package with hundreds of video channels. Today’s youth wants fast broadband with on-demand viewing of series, movies, and video clips. The transition may have already started. Cablevision reported Aug. 2 it lost 20,000 video customers over the last three months, many moving to broadband-only service and 11,000 abandoned the cable company altogether.

Dolan believes the industry is setting itself up for obsolescence.

“I don’t want to be saddled with an infrastructure that is as big as the one that I have now,” Dolan told the Journal, fearing the bloated cable television package is becoming too costly and unmanageable.

Instead, Dolan has ordered network upgrades to improve broadband service and help boost the company’s image with customers. Cablevision focused most of its spending on broadband and Wi-Fi service upgrades over the past year, both to meet relentless competition with Verizon’s fiber network FiOS, but also to develop the platform Dolan thinks will eventually be the only product the company sells. Although Cablevision cannot match Verizon’s upload speeds, the cable company offers a free Wi-Fi service for customers Verizon lacks. But the changes and network upgrades have been expensive and noticeable, because few cable operators are spending as much as Cablevision to improve service.

The changes in approach were too much for former chief operating officer Thomas Rutledge, who departed Cablevision to run Charter Cable in December 2011.

One of the primary reasons Rutledge left was Dolan’s increasing involvement in the business, causing a clash of business philosophies. Just a few months before Rutledge departed, the FCC issued a report that exposed Cablevision marketing broadband speeds its network could not sustain, especially during prime usage periods. Rutledge believed this was primarily a marketing problem. Dolan concluded the existing broadband infrastructure was inadequate.

“I felt that we needed to reinvest,” Dolan said. “When we took a hard look at what we were offering,… it just wasn’t what we wanted it to be.”

As Rutledge and his allies rapidly departed for Charter Cable, Dolan ordered a 32 percent increase in capital spending to $1.1 billion last year, at least $150 million targeted exclusively on broadband improvements. This year he has already informed Wall Street it will be more of the same, bringing expanded Wi-Fi, new and improved broadband modems for customers, even faster speeds, new outage detection equipment, and an improved cloud-based DVR service.

Existing customers like the changes, but don’t appreciate the price hikes that have accompanied them. Wall Street has the exact opposite point of view, welcoming increased revenue from rate hikes, but concerned about the company’s spending. Investors complain Cablevision’s returns are well below those of other cable operators which don’t face the Verizon FiOS juggernaut.

Still, for some customers, the changes have come too late and Verizon’s promotional offers to switch to fiber have been too good. Cablevision did at least manage to add 1,000 new broadband and 3,000 new voice customers during the second quarter.

“We’re not prepared to starve the business,” said chief financial officer Gregg Seibert. “In terms of upgrades, I think what you’re seeing with the high-speed rollout that we just did is that we feel that our plant is in very good condition. We’re delivering over advertised speeds in every day part. We intend to keep the plant in that type of condition.”

Dolan’s philosophy of upgrading service to improve customer relations also clashes with John Malone, who is rebuilding his cable industry power base at Rutledge’s new home — Charter Cable. Malone believes industry consolidation, not expensive network upgrades, is a better proposition for shareholders.

Dolan told investors Cablevision is, for now, out of the mergers and acquisitions business. It has completed selling off its Optimum West systems to Charter and plans no further expeditionary buyouts in the near future. Instead, the company intends to focus on its business in the northeast. Dolan acknowledged the company is a likely acquisition target, most likely by Charter or Time Warner Cable.

Dolan currently shows little interest in selling out what is and always has been a family affair. Chuck Dolan, 86, founded Cablevision and still offers almost daily advice to his son James, who now runs the business. James also appointed his wife Kristin to lead sales, marketing and product management, with questionable results.

Some other highlights from the second quarter:

• Cablevision has enhanced its Remote Storage DVR product, now providing two tiers: 160GB and 500GB. Customers can record up to 10 channels at the same time. The service is available on customers’ existing set-top boxes;
• Last month, Cablevision announced an increase in our broadband data speeds;
• Wi-Fi remains a major priority for Cablevision and customer usage of its wireless network continues to grow. More than 1 million customers have used the service over more than 90,000 access points;
• Price increases were critical for Cablevision’s revenue growth this year. The company booked increased revenue from a broad-based $5 broadband rate hike implemented in January as well as a “sports programming surcharge” initiated earlier this year. The average subscriber that buys a package including cable television pays $5.49 more this year than last — $162.42 a month.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WSJ Future of Cable TV 8-5-13.flv[/flv]

The Wall Street Journal sat down with Cablevision CEO James Dolan, discussing the future of the business as the industry watches another cable television programming dispute between Time Warner Cable and CBS.  (5 minutes)

CBS has blocked Time Warner Cable and Bright House Networks’ broadband customers from watching CBS online video in a retaliatory move against Time Warner Cable’s decision to pull CBS-owned programming off the lineup because of a contract dispute.

Broadband customers of both cable companies (Bright House relies on Time Warner Cable to negotiate its programming carriage agreements) started losing access to CBS streamed content late Friday, now replaced with a message blaming Time Warner Cable for the loss. Earthlink customers using either cable operator are collateral damage — Earthlink is effectively reselling the others’ cable broadband services.

“If Time Warner Cable is a customer’s Internet Service Provider, then their access to CBS full episode content via online and mobile platforms has been suspended as a result of Time Warner Cable’s decision to drop CBS and Showtime,” said a CBS spokesperson. “As soon as CBS is restored on cable systems in affected markets, that content will be accessible again.”

In place of the programming, cable customers get to see a brief attack ad criticizing Time Warner for yanking CBS-owned channels and networks, despite the fact CBS authorized the companies to keep the channels up and running until the dispute can be worked out.

Time Warner Cable shot back with their own rebuttal.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CBS Blackout – We Dont Want a War 8-4-13.flv[/flv]

Time Warner Cable claims it does not want a war over programming costs in its latest ad regarding the blackout of CBS programming, which now also affects the cable company’s broadband customers. (1 minute)

“CBS has shown utter lack of regard for consumers by blocking Time Warner Cable’s customers, including our high-speed data only customers, from accessing their shows on their free website,” the company said in a statement. “CBS enjoys the privilege of using public owned airwaves to deliver their programming – they should not be allowed to abuse that privilege.”

Customers well outside New York, Dallas, and Los Angeles discovered several CBS-owned cable channels were missing, even though they are not served by a CBS-owned local affiliate. The most obvious — Showtime/The Movie Channel came during the middle of the latest season of Dexter.

New York City residents can sat least keep watching WCBS by signing up for Aereo, which streams local stations over the Internet. A 30-day free trial is available. Getting programming in other cities is going to be much tougher. Some predict hardcore viewers will just look for pirated copies of their favorite shows.

CBS said no further negotiation took place over the weekend. Some industry analysts predict the impasse could run for weeks, even potentially until the start of football season — considered a line of PR destruction neither company is willing to cross.

Golf is not as critical, apparently. The PGA Championship taking place in Rochester, N.Y., this weekend is likely going to get a smaller viewing audience because of the blocked programming.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg CBS Blackout Enters Third Day 8-5-13.flv[/flv]

The blackout of CBS programming by Time Warner Cable enters its third day with no light at the end of the tunnel, suggests this Bloomberg News report. (3 minutes)

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Day Three of CBS Blackout Angers Audiences 8-5-13.flv[/flv]

This is not the first time broadcasters and cable operators have cut viewers off, sometimes for more than a week. Bloomberg News reports the soft deadline for Time Warner and CBS to sort out their differences is the start of the fall football season. Sources say Time Warner now pays $1 a month for CBS, but the network now wants $2 a month. (3 minutes)

Big, Bigger, Biggest… Bigger Still

Comcast has plenty of available bandwidth to indefinitely expand its High Speed Internet services at speeds up to 3Gbps and believes it has won the legal right to grow its cable business as large as it likes.

Comcast executives admitted Wednesday they have more than enough network capacity to meet the demands of customers, both now and well into the future.

“With regard to usage and capacity, we feel the network is flexible and has plenty of opportunity to grow in capacity,” said Neil Smit, president and CEO of Comcast Cable Communications. Smit was responding to a Wall Street analyst asking about future capacity during a quarterly financial results conference call.

Smit noted that some of the biggest bandwidth users served by Comcast are businesses, and the cable operator was well-positioned to service them by extending fiber or deploying its Metro Ethernet product. Residential customers get increased bandwidth through neighborhood node splitting or DOCSIS 3 channel bonding that combines several channels together to increase speed and capacity.

Brian Roberts, CEO of Comcast Corporation, agreed with Smit, adding, “the more the consumer desires speed, the better that is for our company.”

Roberts noted DOCSIS 3.1 — the next generation of cable broadband — was “promising technology.”

“At the cable convention, we demonstrated 3Gbps” over Comcast’s existing cable infrastructure, said Roberts.

Smit

Comcast is easily the country’s largest cable operator, but many believe it is restrained from growing larger through mergers and acquisitions because of antitrust concerns. But thanks to a number of lawsuits initiated by Comcast, the company believes it can now grow as large as it likes.

Roberts admits the question of cable industry consolidation remains a gray area, particularly for Comcast. But he told investors he does not believe there are any remaining legal hurdles preventing Comcast from buying out other cable operators, despite earlier FCC rulemakings limiting the maximum size a cable company can grow through buyouts.

Comcast yesterday announced its last buyout — NBCUniversal — helped fuel a 29% increase in net income in the second quarter, thanks in part to strong results from film and television.

But many of Comcast’s largest gains came from its cable business.

Despite continued losses of video subscribers (159,000 in the second quarter), Comcast’s cable revenue increased 5.8% to $10.47 billion, and operating cash flow grew 5.7% to $4.3 billion. Comcast, which also owns several NBC broadcast affiliates, is playing for both sides of the retransmission consent wars. Its owned and operated television stations have demanded higher fees to be carried on cable systems, many owned by Comcast itself. The increased programming costs fuel subscriber rate increases, which also boost revenue.

Broadband is way up, although the company keeps losing video customers to cord-cutting.

Comcast’s broadband revenue has continued to grow dramatically. Customer additions for High Speed Internet access were up more than 20% in the quarter — the best second-quarter growth in five years — even as subscribers paid more for the service because of rate increases. Customer growth and price hikes delivered 8% growth in broadband revenue. In the last quarter alone, Comcast earned $2.6 billion from its broadband business.

Comcast is not spending a significant percentage of that revenue on enhanced broadband network upgrades. Instead, the company has increased investments to wire office parks and businesses to entice commercial customers, which account for a substantial amount of new customer growth. Comcast is also investing in research and development of new products and services, such as set-top boxes. The company also expects to pay 10% more in programming costs than it did a year earlier.

Year-to-date cable communications capital expenditures have increased 7.1% to $2.3 billion representing 11.3% of cable revenue. Comcast expects that for the full-year of 2013, cable capital expenditures will increase by about 10% over 2012.

Some other highlights from the quarter:

• In the last six months, Comcast completed broadband speed increases for 70 percent of its customers;
• High Speed Internet revenue was again the largest contributor to Comcast’s cable revenue growth;
• At the end of the quarter, 33% of Comcast’s residential high-speed customers take a higher speed tier above its primary service;
• Comcast has pushed Wi-Fi hard, installing more than four million wireless gateways and boosted Wi-Fi coverage to 250,000 hotspots through both cable partnerships and its home hotspot initiative;
• Comcast’s new X1 cloud-based set-top platform has been introduced to more than half of its national service area and will be available everywhere by the end of 2013. By the end of the year, Comcast also expects to push a firmware update to installed boxes to upgrade them to its new X2 platform;
• The average Comcast subscriber now pays the company $160 per month, up 7.4% from last year. Rate hikes, speed upgrades and growing programming packages account for the higher price;
• 77% of Comcast video customers took at least two products and among those, 42% took phone, broadband and television service.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Comcasts Cable and Media Units Grow 7-31-13.flv[/flv]

Bloomberg reports Comcast is still having trouble holding on to its video-only customers, but broadband customer growth continues to explode. Comcast also does well because it owns a number of cable networks and entertainment properties. Expect Comcast to continue evolving its products to bring them closer to the things people do online.  (3 minutes)

Prism is CenturyLink’s fiber to the neighborhood service, similar to AT&T U-verse.

Western Eagle County will be among the first areas in Colorado to get CenturyLink’s fiber-to-the-neighborhood service upgrade, dubbed Prism TV.

“Eagle County is joining the first 10 markets to get Prism TV,” said Abel Chavez, CenturyLink’s director of state and local government affairs.

The phone company plans to introduce the service gradually once franchise renewal agreements with the county are complete.

The upgrade is an important once for Eagle County, which will see improved service well before residents in larger Colorado cities like Denver.

“Since we already have a franchise here, this is an opportunity to do two things — upgrade it and test it in a rural market,” Chavez told the Eagle Valley Enterprise. “In this case, a small mountain community is going to have something that Denver doesn’t have yet and it’s all going in on our existing network. We’re not adding to our footprint.”

CenturyLink’s service area includes towns in the western half of the county, Eagle and Gypsum. Comcast is the dominant cable provider in Colorado and has the largest market share of customers in the eastern half of the county.

CenturyLink primarily markets Prism as a television service, although it also supports 25Mbps broadband, depending on line quality.

Much like AT&T U-verse, Prism provides a fiber broadband connection to a box positioned in the neighborhood. From that box, the customer’s current copper telephone line is used to bring an enhanced version of DSL inside the home that divides bandwidth for Internet access, telephone, and cable television service.

A typical triple-play, new customer Prism package in Las Vegas runs around $115 a month, price-locked for 24 months. The whole house DVR and HD channels add another $10-15 a month after the first three months.

Included in the package:

• 10Mbps broadband
• CenturyLink Home Phone with Unlimited Nationwide Calling
• Prism TV (120 channels)
• Free installation, first set-top box included ($8.99/mo each additional box), DVR with up to four concurrent recordings

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CenturyLink Prism Demo Summer 2013.flv[/flv]

CenturyLink produced this demonstration video of Prism TV’s capabilities. CenturyLink does not seem to emphasize improved broadband service as part of the Prism experience in its marketing. (2 minutes)

xfinity=5GB

Comcast is introducing a new 5GB optional usage cap for customers subscribing to their Economy Plus ($29.95 – 3Mbps/768kbps) tier willing to limit their Internet usage in return for a $5 discount.

“The Flexible-Data Option is specifically designed for casual or light Internet users who typically use 5GB of data or less a month,” says a new Comcast FAQ on the subject. “It provides a $5 credit if your total monthly data usage is less than or equal to 5GB per month.”

Comcast admits only a tiny percentage of customers subscribe to the Economy Plus tier, and those are the only customers receiving letters offering a discount for keeping Internet usage low.

The company says it will inject a message into subscribers’ web browsers notifying them when they reach 90% of their usage allowance. If customers do happen to exceed 5GB of usage per month, there are repercussions. First, they automatically lose the $5 credit. Instead, they will be charged $1 per gigabyte in overlimit fees.

“We believe this monthly option is fair because it allows our eligible customers who use less data to now pay less,” writes the company.

But unlike Time Warner Cable’s trials of 5 and 30GB usage-capped plans that limit the overlimit fee to $25 a month, Comcast has no disclosed maximum, which means a customer consuming 200GB a month could face a $195 overage usage penalty.

Comcast notes the option is being offered later this month on a trial basis and only in the Fresno area. Customers can drop the usage capped option at any time.

Comcast discontinued its formal 250GB usage cap in May 2012, but it has not abandoned interest in usage limits or consumption-based pricing.

In Tucson, Comcast is testing variable usage caps with an overlimit fee of $10, which includes an extra 50GB of usage. In Nashville, all customers face a hard 300GB usage cap.

Time Warner Cable has repeatedly admitted very few customers have shown any interest in usage capped broadband plans.