Time Warner Cable and Cablevision customers: Is Charter Cable in your future?

The best way the cable industry can grow revenue in the lucrative broadband business is to bring back the same type of collusion and control cable companies maintained over video programming 20 years ago.

Dr. John Malone did not want to sound nefarious in his recent interview with CNBC’s David Faber, but the new part-owner of Charter Communications has built a reputation as cable’s Darth Vader over the last 30 years. His detractors consider his way of doing business akin to a nationwide cable mafia, complete with exclusive, non-competitive territories that assure operators can charge sky-is-the-limit prices.

Malone is now back in the cable business in a big way, and analysts expect he will quickly amass influence in an industry he once led as CEO of the nation’s then-largest cable operator — Tele-Communications, Inc. (TCI).

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Malone is Back Into Cable 4-13-13.mp4[/flv]

Why is John Malone back in the cable business and why buy a piece of Charter Cable? Malone tells CNBC’s David Faber Charter is a company with enormous growth potential through mergers and acquisitions. CNBC says Malone could be targeting Time Warner Cable and Cablevision for acquisition by Charter as early as next year. “There is consolidation yet to be done,” Malone hints.  (7 minutes)

Malone notes the cable industry is on the cusp of transformative consolidation through collaborative agreements, mergers, and outright acquisitions both here and abroad. CNBC speculated that could begin with efforts to further reduce the number of cable operators in the United States, perhaps beginning with a deal by Charter Communications to acquire both Time Warner Cable and Cablevision, which could combine under Malone’s stewardship and Charter’s executive leadership to “compete” with Comcast.

Dr. John Malone

CNBC reporters note Malone has high praise for Thomas Rutledge, CEO of Charter Communications. Rutledge’s earlier experience working for both Time Warner Cable and Cablevision could be an asset in combining all three companies into one. Analysts speculate such a deal could be pitched as early as 2014 when Time Warner Cable will undergo a management makeover with the departure of CEO Glenn Britt. CNBC also noted Cablevision’s imminent sale has been rumored for years, and current leader and family patriarch Chuck Dolan is 87 years old. With cheap credit and Malone’s business savvy, both companies could find themselves part of a Malone-engineered takeover that would vastly expand Charter Communications into the second largest cable operator in the country.

Malone sees the days of traditional cable television coming to an end as consumers turn to “over the top” online video for an increasing share of their viewing time. As cable television rates continue to increase, customers are cutting the cord. Malone believes today’s bloated cable packages are ripe for an upheaval from a-la-carte pricing or theme-based programming bouquets that break expensive sports programming or movie channels out of the traditional basic cable lineup. Malone even suspects a challenge to the industry’s current price models could surprisingly come from the programmers themselves.

Sports networks will be among the first to notice their affiliate revenue collected from cable and satellite companies (and passed on to customers in the form of higher rates) will stagnate as customers drop cable television. Declining viewer ratings also mean lower ad revenues. Malone believes at some point sports teams and/or programming networks will decide that the biggest barrier to winning new viewers is the $70-80 asking price for basic cable. If sports programmers find they can reach new audiences selling their programming online, direct-to-consumer, for $5-10 a month, the basic cable all-for-one-price model will quickly collapse.

“As the cable guys and the satellite guys start to lose customers to the over-the-top guys, some of those economics will be reflected back on the sports guys,” Malone said. “They’ll start losing advertising revenue. They’ll lose affiliate revenue. And they have to face reality that maybe you need to segregate your market like everybody else.”

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Malone on Unbundling Cable 4-13-13.mp4[/flv]

John Malone predicts the demise of the traditional bundle of cable television programming within five years. The future is streamed video online, declares Malone, so it is important the cable industry move to manage that competitive threat by acquiring streaming competitors or launching their own services to assure video programming revenue can be protected.  (5 minutes)

Malone sees the future sustainability of the cable industry dependent on the high revenue broadband business.

“I think it is at a point in history when the most addictive thing in the communications world is high-speed connectivity,” Malone told CNBC. “Everywhere in the world that we operate, we’ve just seen the public want more and more data rate. Whether it’s wireless or wired. There’s a big appetite for it. Cable technology right now is the most cost-effective way to deliver that growth in speed.”

Malone believes there is also plenty of room for revenue growth and cost-cutting, which he said can best be accomplished by getting other cable operators together to “cooperate” and “coordinate” broad scale broadband projects that counter competitive threats from third parties.

Malone helped pioneer the cable industry business practice of “don’t compete in my backyard and I won’t compete in yours,” an informal agreement among operators to stay within their own specific territories, safe and secure from competition. In the 1980s and 1990s, Malone’s TCI was one among many cable operators buying and swapping cable systems to build large, regional system “clusters” where only a single cable company provides service, winning economy of scale and a formidable presence that discouraged other wired competitors from entering the business. In most cities, only the deep pockets of AT&T (U-verse) and Verizon (FiOS) have managed to shake things up.

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Bring Back the Cable Mafia 4-13-13.mp4[/flv]

Bring back the cable mafia? CNBC’s David Faber gets John Malone to admit vertical and horizontal integration — controlling the content and the pipeline — are important factors to protect cable revenue and expand American dominance in cable internationally. Malone is also a big supporter of industry consolidation and believes mergers and acquisitions are necessary to shrink the number of cable operators in the United States. (5 minutes)

The cable mafia?

Malone wants broadband to be carefully managed under the industry’s own control and direction.

Faber asked if Malone wanted to bring back the days of the “cable mafia.”

“Yes, I think we do want to bring back the days of @Home, the days of Ted Turner, the days when we all got together, because together we provided national scale,” Malone said. “Now I think we have the opportunity to create global scale,” he said. “The goal is not to be bigger. The goal is to be more cost-effective.”

What is the best way to win a big promotion at Cablevision? Be related to the Dolan family that founded the cable system.

Cablevision Systems CEO James Dolan suddenly announced a shuffling of executives at the helm of the cable operation that serves suburban New York, Connecticut, and parts of New Jersey.

Dolan’s wife got the biggest promotion: president of Optimum Services. That represents a big jump for Kristin Dolan, who was last seen helping revive the long dead career of Michael Bolton in a marketing and rebranding exercise that turned the faded pop musician into a de facto Cablevision mascot. Under her leadership, Cablevision managed to put its most important product — broadband, dead last in its triple play marketing campaigns.

Brian Sweeney, Dolan’s brother-in-law, also scored a new title – senior executive vice president of strategy.

Dolan called the management shifts a pro-customer effort that would refocus and streamline the company’s decision-making processes. Since both executives will report directly to Dolan, some industry insiders believe James Dolan intends to tightly consolidate his control over management decisions at the company.

Kristin will keep her role as chief of brand positioning and expand her oversight into the company’s sales and promotional activities. Sweeney will serve as the “long-term strategy” guy, overseeing planning, customer retention, and winning customers away from Cablevision’s biggest competitor — Verizon FiOS.

A large number of former Cablevision executives defected from the cable company in 2011, most heading with former chief operating officer Tom Rutledge to Charter Communications.

Compare Optimum/Cablevision’s Marketing Campaigns: Before <- Kristin Dolan -> With

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Cablevision Ad 2008.flv[/flv]

Cablevision’s ‘Before Kristin’ Advertising (1 minute)

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Cablevision Bolton 2-15-13.flv[/flv]

Cablevision’s ‘With Kristin’ Advertising (1 minute)

Cablevision’s yesteryear marketing: As outdated as this Harvest Gold Trimline phone.

Cablevision’s bizarre new ads for its Optimum triple-play package (the one that puts broadband, arguably its most important component, dead last) have reached a new low in the latest series featuring… Michael Bolton?

Bolton is a practical unknown to the most important demographic group not buying cable: recent graduate twenty-somethings that were 12 when one of his songs last plagued top-40 radio. Cablevision’s misfire could only be outdone if Nike hired Dick Van Dyke to pitch their shoes.

This is the best Cablevision can manage after Sandy blew away 11,000 of their customers (potentially for good) and rate increases took another 28,000 households with them (mostly to the benefit of Verizon FiOS)? Was the runner-up Joyce DeWitt from Three’s Company pitching a three-pack of phone, television, and (oh yes) Internet service?

Cablevision’s marketing efforts are now partly overseen by the CEO’s wife, who ‘somehow’ landed the prominent role of rebranding Cablevision/Optimum. Perhaps her best talents lie elsewhere.

Verizon featured Michael Bay blowing things up in FiOS ads five years ago that were more trendy than Cablevision was this week.

The point of the ad? Michael Bolton keeps getting annoyed with masses of would-be Cablevision customers calling in to sign up for cable service on a toll-free number that is just one digit away from Michael Bolton’s toll-free number (?) Yes, that is Bolton talking on a (shudder) landline (at least he has a cordless phone). Does anyone under 30 even know what a “toll-free” call is?

For those of us who remember what a dial tone sounds like and can still recognize a Trimline rotary phone, the ad still does not make sense. I am perplexed why Michael Bolton has a toll-free number. I guess when Tonya Harding’s name recognition rivals Michael Bolton’s, the fact he has a toll-free number gives him the edge.

A minute later, I am left wondering why I care. I am not certainly not wondering why I haven’t picked up the phone to order Cablevision service.

When it comes to branding and image, here is what Cablevision just accomplished:

• Verizon FiOS circa 2008 = Michael Bay blowing cool stuff up.
• Cablevision this week = Michael Bolton.

‘Nuff said.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Cablevision Ads Michael Bolton.flv[/flv]

AD FAIL: What were they thinking? Michael Bolton annoys viewers trying to recollect his career while Cablevision tries to make New York, New Jersey and Connecticut remember why they should care.  (1 minute)

Cablevision’s executive suites are filled with intrigue and family politics. — Phillip Dampier

Cablevision’s quarterly results conference call last week was an exercise in obfuscation.

Senior management at the cable operator that serves parts of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut announced some difficult financial results, including the fact the company lost at least 39,000 customers during the last quarter — a significant number considering Cablevision only serves 3.6 million customers as of the end of December. At least 11,000 of those customers stopped paying their bills and disappeared, presumably because their homes and businesses were victims of Hurricane Sandy. But company officials admitted they also lost high-speed Internet customers because of a recent price increase and ongoing heavy promotional activity from their biggest competitor — Verizon FiOS. The phone company has offered triple play packages as low as $89 a month with $300 debit card rebates, which makes hiking rates untenable.

Cablevision CEO James Dolan has been ducking hard questions from Wall Street analysts concerned about the company’s spending and marketing, the loss of subscribers, and fallout from a 2011 management shakeup. Richard Greenfield, an analyst at research firm BTIG, has been frustrated getting answers from the Dolan family that has controlled Cablevision for decades, tweeting Cablevision executives stopped taking his questions on regular conference calls after he began asking some of those hard questions.

Cablevision’s Upgrades Will Continue; Company Wants an Improved Subscriber Experience

Greenfield

One of the problems Verizon FiOS’ fiber to the home network brings Cablevision as its largest competitor is fiber technology is superior to Cablevision’s cable network infrastructure. Verizon has been a formidable challenger. This has forced the cable operator to make dramatic improvements, particularly in its broadband product, to stay competitive. But some of these upgrades have been delayed by the effects of Hurricane Sandy, which affected 60 percent of Cablevision’s subscribers in the tri-state area.

Cablevision has been forced to offer customers service credits, substantially curtail sales and advertising efforts, and suspend the non-pay collection rules and disconnect policy.

Cablevision has also committed itself to an expensive robust Wi-Fi network to differentiate itself from Verizon. Cablevision has an extensive Wi-Fi presence in its service area, offering unlimited free service for its customers. Verizon does not. Cablevision ended 2012 with more than 67,000 installed hotspots, with more than 30% of Optimum Online customers using the service in 2012.

At the same time, cable television programming costs have skyrocketed, but Cablevision has generally avoided raising prices fearing Verizon would poach unhappy subscribers.

Drama Surrounding Executive Changes

Internet comes last?

In 2011, Cablevision accepted the resignation of Tom Rutledge, former chief operating officer. Richard Greenfield dismissed Cablevision’s statements about his departure as “spin,” and claims the real reason Rutledge left for Charter Communications is that Jim Dolan became dissatisfied with Rutledge’s performance. But that poor performance could also be attributed to some of the company’s own decisions, particularly when it engaged in multiple battles with programmers during 2010 that forced popular cable networks and broadcasters temporarily off Cablevision lineups. Greenfield suggests the biggest impact was felt when the cable operator dropped the local Fox station right in the middle of the World Series. BTIG believes subscriber losses accelerated for these reasons (and Verizon’s aggressive marketing efforts) and helped the company see its earnings and subscriber trends hurt.

Jim Dolan has reportedly taken a more hands-on approach at Cablevision and even appointed his wife Kristin to assume a stronger role in how Cablevision markets itself to customers.

The result was a Cablevision rebranding that Greenfield criticized in September as “firmly entrenched in the past,” because it emphasizes television and phone service over broadband.

Avoiding Tough Questions

Several of the questions Greenfield wanted answered, but could not, dealt with the transformation of part of Cablevision’s service area thanks to Sandy and some of the company’s earlier missteps:

• Permanent System Loss: How many Cablevision homes in the service area will no longer exist or take years to rebuild?
• Recapture Suspended Accounts: At least 24,000 video subscribers disappeared after Hurricane Sandy. Has this number changed recently and are there plans to win these customers back?
• Verizon FIOS was back up and running in storm-damaged areas before Cablevision. How has this affected your operations?
• Marketing Missteps: Are there plans to correct the marketing deficiencies from the 2012 campaign in 2013, particularly for broadband?
• Onyx Guide and Network DVR: Neither are well-received by customers. The Onyx on-screen Guide has been slammed for not working properly, being cumbersome to use, and difficult to read. The remote DVR has been criticized for its poor quality and reliability over traditional in-home DVRs. What will Cablevision do to address these complaints?
• Why is Cablevision challenging Viacom in court over cable network programming costs when sports programming is where the real costs are?

Do you ever wonder why your local cable system suddenly decided to begin carrying barely known networks like Centric, Logo, Palladia, and a dozen other channels you can’t recall ever watching even as providers perennially complain about “increased programming costs?”

The cable dial has gotten increasingly crowded with secondary cable networks that usually occupy three digit channel numbers somewhere in cable dial Siberia, unlikely to be encountered by anyone other than the most hearty channel surfer.

Welcome to the cable network racket, run by the corporate owners of popular cable networks that allegedly force cable operators to also carry (and pay for) lesser-watched networks as part of a broader carriage deal.

Today, Cablevision filed an antitrust lawsuit against Viacom in Manhattan federal court for illegally forcing the cable company to carry and pay for more than a dozen ancillary cable networks it claims customers don’t want, just so Viacom will sell access to popular cable networks including Comedy Central, MTV and Nickelodeon.

“The manner in which Viacom sells its programming is illegal, anti-consumer, and wrong,” Cablevision indicated in a prepared statement. “Viacom’s abuse of its market power is not only illegal, but also prevents Cablevision from delivering the programming that its customers want and that competes with Viacom’s less popular channels.”

Cablevision argues Viacom is hostile with cable operators who don’t want these add-on channels, coercing carriage agreements by threatening “massive financial penalties” or exclusion of popular channels altogether until operators sign up for the majority of Viacom networks.

Cablevision’s complaint asserts that Viacom is engaged in a “per se” illegal tying arrangement in violation of federal antitrust laws. Cablevision also claims Viacom has engaged in unlawful “block booking,” a form of tying  conditions on the sale of a package of rights to the purchaser’s taking of other rights.

Cablevision is seeking a number of remedies including voiding the carriage agreement Cablevision signed with Viacom just last December, a permanent injunction banning Viacom from making carriage agreements conditional on adding other networks, and financial relief in the form of damages and legal costs related to bringing the suit.

Yes

Viacom-owned networks customers actually want:

• MTV
• MTV2
• Nickelodeon
• VH1
• Spike
• TV Land
• Comedy Central
• BET

What?

Viacom’s 14 extra networks you may have never heard of and may not want to pay for:

• Centric
• CMT
• MTV Hits
• MTV Tr3s
• Nick Jr.
• Nicktoons
• Palladia
• Teen Nick
• VH1 Classic
• VH1 Soul
• Logo
• CMT Pure Country
• Nick 2
• MTV Jams

Viacom issued a statement minutes ago claiming it would “vigorously defend this transparent attempt by Cablevision to use the courts to renegotiate our existing two-month-old agreement.”

Viacom argues it does not force operators to carry any of its networks, but admitted it does offer financial incentives in the form of lower prices when operators agree to also carry its lesser-known networks. Viacom said that it had “long offered discounts to those who agree to provide additional network distribution.”