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While Connecticut Waits for Power, AT&T Customers Also Feel Left in the Dark

Phillip Dampier October 31, 2012 AT&T, Cablevision (see Altice USA), Consumer News, Verizon, Wireless Broadband Comments Off on While Connecticut Waits for Power, AT&T Customers Also Feel Left in the Dark

The darker the color, the higher percentage of CP&L customers without electric service. Areas in gray are served by other electric utilities.

Although less hard-hit than New Jersey, Connecticut residents will wait almost as long as customers further south for restoration of electric service, with AT&T getting its own services back up and running only after electric utility repair crews finish work.

Customers across the state are experiencing power outages that range from a handful of homes to near-complete blackouts that utility companies predict will take at least a week to repair. For a second day, AT&T continued to leave its customers in the dark, with nothing more than a general statement it continued to “assess the damage” to its wired and wireless networks that “have issues” across Connecticut.

In fact, AT&T’s most visible effort for Connecticut customers waiting for service is a website promotion asking for $10 donations for the American Red Cross, conveniently billed to your AT&T account.

“Why did I expect anything more from AT&T when they never seem to be terribly interested in customer service generally,” complains Stop the Cap! reader Bethany Johnson, also a U-verse customer e-mailing us from a friend’s phone on Verizon Wireless. “AT&T customer service won’t say anything to us and you can’t find a thing on their website with the same old statements on the news.”

Johnson says Connecticut Light & Power (CL&P) restored her electric service early this morning, but U-verse is out and her AT&T cell phone no longer has any signal from her home.

“When you call AT&T, one of their call centers answers and they just read out some statement that tells you nothing,” she says. “Verizon Wireless and Cablevision are falling all over each other trying to give us updates, but AT&T can’t be bothered.”

Johnson says her friends with Verizon Wireless seem to have weathered Hurricane Sandy better than she did, with much more sporadic AT&T cell service afflicting customers across Connecticut.

“My husband drives for a living and he says AT&T’s cell network as of today along the roads he travels really took a beating and he often can’t get in touch with me,” Johnson said. “AT&T says they have ‘issues’ in Connecticut and I am getting to the point where I am having an issue with them. Just tell us what is going on, we can take it.”

United Illuminating is reporting 137,983 customers without power; more than 43 percent of its service area. Nearly all of UI’s customers in the Southport section of Fairfield have no electric service, followed by Weston at 90 percent, Trumbull with nearly 85 percent, Monroe at nearly 82 percent and Bridgeport at 71 percent.

CL&P is reporting 351,910 or about 28 percent of its customers without power. In southwestern Connecticut, more than half of CL&P’s customers are in the dark in Darien, Greenwich, New Canaan, Westport, Wilton, Weston, Newtown, Monroe and Danbury.

Hurricane Sandy’s Wrath on Telecommunications Extends Beyond the Hardest Hit Areas

Hurricane Sandy’s destructive forces of wind and water, combined with extensive electrical outages has wreaked havoc with telecommunications services from Maine to Virginia, leaving some customers potentially without service for weeks.

The storm has flooded Verizon‘s central switching offices in New York City, did extensive damage to Sprint’s wireless network and infrastructure, has left large sections of upstate and downstate New York without cable service, and clocks ticking for wireless cell customers using cell sites currently running on battery backup power.

Some of the worst problems are affecting Verizon’s landline and FiOS networks after the company lost two critical switching centers in Manhattan to extensive flooding. That has contributed to significant problems for Verizon customers across Manhattan, Queens, and Long Island. Further afield, Verizon customers without service can blame power outages and fallen trees that took out overhead wiring. Together, Verizon customers are experiencing significant problems with landline, broadband, and FiOS TV and Internet services in some areas.

Many Verizon Wireless cell sites are operating on battery backup units which maintain service for only a limited time. New York, New Jersey and Connecticut customers report increasing difficulty maintaining cell service signals as those battery backup units start to fail. Verizon engineering crews can restore undamaged cell sites with backup generators once permitted into storm-ravaged areas.

One of the hardest hit wireless carriers

Cablevision‘s business largely depends on areas that took a direct hit from Hurricane Sandy. Cablevision repair crews are encountering extensive power outages and damaged overhead wiring brought down during the storm in Connecticut and Long Island. Its service area closer to New York City has been primarily affected by power outages. Comcast said it was still starting an assessment process and was not prepared to report on the current state of its network, which operates in cities north and south of the New York City metro area.

While Time Warner Cable spokesman Alex Dudley reports little damage to Time Warner Cable’s systems, many remain offline from power interruptions, and Time Warner’s Twitter feed for upstate New York reports isolated outages in Portland, Maine and across upstate New York, primarily due to power losses or damage to infrastructure.

Sprint appears to be the hardest hit wireless carrier with widespread service outages, interruptions and call completion issues throughout the states of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Washington DC, Maryland, North Virginia and New England. Some customers far away from the worst-hit areas report trouble making and receiving calls on Sprint’s network. Many cell sites are also damaged.

AT&T is assessing damage to its landline operations in Connecticut, where it is the dominant phone company. Many AT&T cell phone sites, like Verizon, are operating on battery backup in power outage areas until AT&T can bring generators online to maintain service.

T-Mobile and MetroPCS report damage and service outages to their cellular networks as well, mostly from power outages.

Lyndhurst, NJ

Even old style communications networks were not spared from Hurricane Sandy. The Northeast Radio Watch reports a large number of broadcasters across the region off the air as of this morning:

  • Outside of WOR (710), most New York City area AM stations are off the air. WOR survived the storm with its recently built three tower site located just above the flood waters. Chief engineer Tom Ray told NERW the water is 10 feet deep at WOR’s transmitter site in the Meadowlands. Many AM stations in New York favor transmitter locations in now-ravaged Lyndhurst and the Meadowlands. The result: indefinite absence of all-news WINS (1010) (it’s now back up — thanks to an update from Scott Fybush), which is now being heard on WXRK (92.3). Also missing: WLIB (1190), WSNR (620), WMCA (570), WNYC (820), WPAT (930), WNYM (970), WADO (1280) and WWRV (1330). FM outlets favor much higher transmitter locations, usually atop large skyscrapers, that escaped flood damage.
  • WABC continues to air the audio portion of its broadcast on WEPN-AM (1050) and FM (98.7) for the benefit of those without power. WCBS studios are currently powered “by candlelight.”
  • The Jersey shore’s FM outlets are mostly silent. Atlantic City was among the hardest hit, and some stations may be off the air for some time while rebuilding.
  • Connecticut stations are also off the air. Powerhouse WICC (600) in Bridgeport has transmitters on Long Island Sound — a poor choice to withstand Sandy. It is likely underwater. Also gone: WGCH (1490 Greenwich), WAXB (850 Ridgefield) and WSHU (1260 Westport) and WALK-FM (97.5 Patchogue).

Repair crews for all concerned will likely only start assessing damage later today, but many will have to wait for power crews to complete work — they have first priority. Those lucky enough to see service restoration once power returns will be in far better shape than others who could wait weeks to get their Internet, television and phone service back.

Correction: Original story included reference to studio power knocked out at WOR-TV. That should have said WOR-AM (radio). 

Competition? Comcast Announces It Will Sell Ads on Behalf of AT&T U-verse

Phillip Dampier October 29, 2012 AT&T, Charter Spectrum, Comcast/Xfinity, Competition 1 Comment

In another sign competition between cable and phone companies may not be as robust as they would have you believe, Comcast last week announced a deal to sell local advertising on behalf of AT&T U-verse.

Under the agreement, Comcast’s Spotlight ad sales division will now sell local advertising slots on behalf of AT&T’s U-verse in cities where both companies provide service.

Comcast says the agreement will cover 21 cities, including:

  • Atlanta
  • Champaign-Springfield-Decatur (Ill.)
  • Chicago
  • Detroit
  • Flint-Saginaw-Bay City (Mich.)
  • Fresno-Visalia (Calif.)
  • Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo-Battle Creek (Mich.)
  • Hartford-New Haven (Conn.)
  • Houston
  • Indianapolis
  • Jackson, Miss.
  • Jacksonville (Fla.)
  • Lansing (Mich.)
  • Little Rock-Pine Bluff (Ark.)
  • Memphis
  • Miami-Ft. Lauderdale
  • Monterey-Salinas (Calif.)
  • Nashville
  • Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto (Calif.)
  • San Francisco
  • West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce (Fla.)

This leaves Comcast with a lock on local ad sales for both its own cable and AT&T’s U-verse systems. Most major cable networks offer their affiliates opportunities to insert local commercials during certain advertising breaks. The ad insertions provide a lucrative revenue stream for pay television providers, which can target viewers of specific cable networks or run the same messages across hundreds of cable channels.

The deal will save AT&T from having to hire additional employees to handle local ad sales and will let advertisers cover one or both systems in a single ad buy.

But critics wonder if Comcast cooperating this closely with AT&T is good for competition.

The deal is not unprecedented, however. AT&T has also partnered with Charter Cable to cross market local ad sales in cities where U-verse and Charter compete head to head.

Transforming AT&T: Declining Growth in Wireless Means Strategic Redirection for Company

With a declining number of Americans willing to pay AT&T’s prices for smartphones and wireless service plans, AT&T’s future revenue growth will increasingly depend on getting the company’s current customers to pay more for data and adopt new types of wireless communications services.

After a quarterly earnings report found AT&T subscriber growth falling far behind its larger rival Verizon Wireless, AT&T appears ready to concede there is a finite number of new customers to be won from endless battles for market share.

AT&T was expected to add 358,000 new customers in the previous quarter, but only managed to attract 151,000. Demand for the latest Apple iPhone has yet to meet available supply, with most iPhones obtained by AT&T allocated to existing customers. AT&T exclusively launched the iPhone in the United States in 2007 and retains the largest share of iPhone owners, even after the phone became available from other carriers. Verizon Wireless had fewer problems adding new customers because it is not nearly as dependent on Apple.

de la Vega

Despite lackluster subscriber growth, AT&T reported stellar revenue during the quarter, partly from rate increases and the launch of usage-limited, family share plans. AT&T also continued to benefit from  tax savings, share buybacks, and refinancing debt at lower interest rates. With fewer customers adding subsidized phones, AT&T also paid fewer subsidies.

AT&T’s profit rose to $3.64 billion, or 63 cents per share, up from $3.62 billion, or 61 cents per share — $.03 ahead of Wall Street expectations.

AT&T can thank its wireless data services for a significant chunk of their earnings, with more to come.

The company reported more than 2/3rd’s of their customers (28+ million) are now on usage-based pricing plans. That is 10 million more than a year ago. The company’s new mobile share plans have attracted almost two million subscribers during the first five weeks they were on offer. More than one-third of those customers are choosing the company’s 10GB data allowance, which costs the customer $150 a month with unlimited talk and texting ($30 a month for each additional smartphone on the account.) Around 15% of new mobile share customers are choosing to abandon their grandfathered unlimited data plans.

AT&T’s forthcoming strategic redirection, to be announced Nov. 7, is likely to center around increasing revenue from the company’s wireless data network.

The average AT&T customer’s wireless broadband data bill is on the increase.

Ralph de la Vega, president and CEO of AT&T Mobility and Consumer Markets, told investors it is taking “this massive data growth and building products and services on top of that.”

“One of the best examples I can give you is our launch of Digitize that will happen next year,” de la Vega said. “It leverages this huge smartphone database and adds services on top of it and not just data access, but services that differentiate us from the competition. So you’re talking about connecting the home with service automation and security monitoring. We’re talking about connecting your car with all kinds of entertainment services.”

That means AT&T sees its future revenue coming mostly from existing customers paying more.

“Those services are not dependent on adding more customers per se, but connecting more houses, connecting more cars and connecting more things that drive significant revenue streams with good margins for us,” de la Vega said. “In terms of what we see happening with others in the industry, I don’t think anything we have seen changes our plan. We’re going to execute [and] let others react to our plan, instead of us reacting to them.”

AT&T seemed unconcerned by competition in the current marketplace, especially from those offering cheaper plans. de la Vega predicted other carriers will come around to AT&T and Verizon’s way of thinking about mobile plan pricing.

“I think these mobile share plans are very compelling to customers,” de la Vega told investors. “And I think those that don’t put them in, in the industry will probably have to rethink down the road because I think the reception has been exceptional.”

John Stephens, AT&T’s chief financial officer, called AT&T’s data growth important, as long as those customers are on tiered data plans. With three-quarters of their customers buying “higher-priced plans,” AT&T can grow revenue by encouraging data usage that forces customers into ever-higher allowance plans that deliver revenue boosts indefinitely.

“I think some of the things driving our pricing and the price moves we made almost a year ago where we increased our data pricing are driving our revenue growth,” de la Vega admitted. “But we’re also seeing people sign up for more data. And the fact is, as you sell more smartphones or more tablets, people need more data. Usage-based data pricing means as usage goes up, we can see some of that lift also coming from additional average revenue per customer. So not only do we feel good where we are, but I feel really good about where we’re going, because you have to have that base of usage base in order to be able to monetize the data growth that we foresee in the future.”

AT&T continues to depend primarily on its wireless division for most of its revenue, but as growth slows, the demand for ever-increasing average revenue from each customer will have to come from increasing prices or finding new services to sell that customers want.

Applications that wireless carriers seek to monetize

Some other highlights:

  • AT&T was questioned by Wall Street about its decision to voluntarily contribute a $9.5 billion preferred equity interest in AT&T Mobility into the Pension Plan Trust. Some analysts consider that amount unnecessary and above the amount required by law, despite the company’s assertion this would help protect the long-term health of AT&T’s pension fund. But some retirees note AT&T’s generosity benefits itself — the company’s contribution to the pension plan is invested entirely in AT&T’s wireless business;
  • AT&T now has 7.4 million U-verse subscribers, driving wireline revenue growth to levels not seen in more than four years. But AT&T still only averages less than a 15% market share in the cities where U-verse is available, suggesting cable operators are maintaining their market dominance;
  • AT&T’s new upgrade policy, which curtails early upgrades and imposes new upgrade fees, is having a dramatic impact on discouraging customers from upgrading their phones. That has kept AT&T’s upgrade rate at a steady 7%, even with the introduction of the wildly popular new iPhone. AT&T has effectively cut their subsidy costs and took a 28% increase in equipment revenue from new upgrade fees to the bank;
  • Capital expenditures are on target at $13.8 billion, with more than half of that invested in the wireless business. Landlines and U-verse upgrades took a back seat.
  • AT&T receives enough iPhones to activate 5,000-10,000 new iPhone customers a day and still that is insufficient to meet demand;

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/ATT Quarterly Earnings 10-24-12.flv[/flv]

AT&T’s Ralph de la Vega explores the company’s latest quarterly earnings, focused on its profitable wireless business.  (3 minutes)

Halloween Scare Stories: Controlling the “Spectrum Shortage” Data Tsunami With Rate Hikes, Caps

Phillip Dampier October 25, 2012 Astroturf, AT&T, Broadband "Shortage", Competition, Consumer News, Data Caps, Editorial & Site News, Public Policy & Gov't, Sprint, T-Mobile, Verizon, Video, Wireless Broadband Comments Off on Halloween Scare Stories: Controlling the “Spectrum Shortage” Data Tsunami With Rate Hikes, Caps

Phillip “Halloween isn’t until next week” Dampier

Despite endless panic about spectrum shortages and data tsunamis, even more evidence arrived this week illustrating the wireless industry and their dollar-a-holler friends have pushed the panic button prematurely.

The usual suspects are at work here:

  • The CTIA – The Wireless Association is the chief lobbying group of the wireless industry, primarily representing the voices of Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, and T-Mobile. They publish regular “weather reports” predicting calamity and gnashing of teeth if Washington does not immediately cave to demands to open up new spectrum, despite the fact carriers still have not utilized all of their existing inventory;
  • Cisco – Their bread is buttered when they convince everyone that constant equipment and technology upgrades (coincidentally sold by them) are necessary. Is your enterprise ready to confront the data tsunami? Call our sales office;
  • The dollar-a-holler gang – D.C. based lobbying firms and their astroturf friends sing the tune AT&T and Verizon pay to hear. No cell company wants to stand alone in a public policy debate important to their bottom line, so they hire cheerleaders that masquerade as “research firms,” “independent academia,” “think tanks,” or “institutes.” Sometimes they even enlist non-profit and minority groups to perpetuate the myth that doing exactly what companies want will help advance the cause of the disenfranchised (who probably cannot afford the bills these companies mail to their customers).

Tim Farrar of Telecom, Media, and Finance Associates discovered something interesting about wireless data traffic in 2012. Despite blaring headlines from the wireless industry that “Consumer Data Traffic Increased 104 Percent” this year, statistics reveal a dramatic slowdown in wireless data traffic, primarily because wireless carriers are raising prices and capping usage.

The CTIA press release only quotes total wireless data traffic within the US during the previous 12 months up to June 2012 for a total of 1.16 trillion megabytes, but doesn’t give statistics for data traffic in each individual six-month period. That information, however, can be calculated from previous press releases (which show total traffic in the first six months of 2012 was 635 billion MB, compared to 525 billion MB in the final six months of 2011).

Counter to the CTIA’s spin, this represents growth of just 21 percent, a dramatic slowdown from the 54 percent growth in total traffic seen between the first and second half of 2011. Even more remarkably, on a per device basis (based on the CTIA’s total number of smartphones, tablets, laptops and modems, of which 131 million were in use at the end of June), the first half of 2012 saw an increase of merely 3 percent in average wireless data traffic per cellphone-network connected device, compared to 29 percent growth between the first and second half of 2011 (and 20-plus percent in prior periods).

[…] What was the cause of this dramatic slowdown in traffic growth? We can’t yet say with complete confidence, but it’s not an extravagant leap of logic to connect it with the widely announced adoption of data caps by the major wireless providers in the spring of 2012. It’s understandable that consumers would become skittish about data consumption and seek out free WiFi alternatives whenever possible.

Farrar

Cisco helps feed the flames with growth forecasts that at first glance seem stunning, until one realizes that growth and technological innovation go hand in hand when solving capacity crunches.

The CTIA’s alarmist rhetoric about America being swamped by data demand is backed by wireless carriers, at least when they are not talking to their investors. Both AT&T and Verizon claim their immediate needs for wireless spectrum have been satisfied in the near-term and Verizon Wireless even intends to sell excess spectrum it has warehoused. Both companies suggest capital expenses and infrastructure upgrades are gradually declining as they finish building out their high capacity 4G LTE networks. They have even embarked on initiatives to grow wireless usage. Streamed video, machine-to-machine communications, and new pricing plans that encourage customers to increase consumption run contrary to the alarmist rhetoric that data rationing with usage caps and usage pricing is the consequence of insufficient capacity, bound to get worse if we don’t solve the “spectrum crisis” now.

So where is the fire?

AT&T’s conference call with investors this week certainly isn’t warning the spectrum-sky is falling. In fact, company executives are currently pondering ways to increase data usage on their networks to support the higher revenue numbers demanded by Wall Street.

If you ask carriers’ investor relations departments in New York, they cannot even smell smoke. But company lobbyists are screaming fire inside the D.C. beltway. A politically responsive Federal Communications Commission has certainly bought in. FCC chairman Julius Genachowski has rung the alarm bell repeatedly, notes Farrar:

Even such luminaries as FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski has stated in recent speeches that we are at a crisis point, claiming “U.S. mobile data traffic grew almost 300 percent last year” —while CTIA says it was less than half that, at 123 percent. “There were many skeptics [back in 2009] about whether we faced a spectrum crunch. Today virtually every expert confirms it.”

A smarter way of designing high capacity wireless networks to handle increased demand.

So how are consumers responding to the so-called spectrum crisis?

Evidence suggests they are offloading an increasing amount of their smartphone and tablet traffic to free Wi-Fi networks to avoid eroding their monthly data allowance. In fact, Farrar notes Wi-Fi traffic leads the pack in wireless data growth. Consumers will choose the lower cost or free option if given a choice.

So how did we get here?

When first conceived, wireless carriers built long range, low density cellular networks. Today’s typical unsightly cell tower covers a significant geographic area that can reach customers numbering well into the thousands (or many more in dense cities). If everyone decides to use their smartphone at the same time, congestion results without a larger amount of spectrum to support a bigger wireless data “pipe.” But some network engineers recognize that additional spectrum allocated to that type of network only delays the inevitable next wave of potential congestion.

Wi-Fi hints at the smarter solution — building short range, high density networks that can deliver a robust wireless broadband experience to a much smaller number of potential users. Your wireless phone company may even offer you this solution today in the form of a femtocell which offloads your personal wireless usage to your home or business Wi-Fi network.

Some wireless carriers are adopting much smaller “cell sites” which are installed on light poles or in nearby tall buildings, designed to only serve the immediate neighborhood. The costs to run these smaller cell sites are dramatically less than a full-fledged traditional cell tower complex, and these antennas do not create as much visual pollution.

To be fair, wireless growth will eventually tap out the currently allocated airwaves designated for wireless data traffic. But more spectrum is on the way even without alarmist rhetoric that demands a faster solution more than  a smart one that helps bolster spectrum -and- competition.

Running a disinformation campaign and hiring lobbyists remains cheaper than modifying today’s traditional cellular network design, at least until spectrum limits or government policy force the industry’s hand towards innovation. Turning over additional frequencies to the highest bidder that currently warehouses unused spectrum is not the way out of this. Allocating spectrum to guarantee those who need it most get it first is a better choice, especially when those allocations help promote a more competitive wireless marketplace for consumers.

[flv width=”600″ height=”358″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/KGO San Francisco FCC considers spectrum shortage 9-12-12.flv[/flv]

KGO in San Francisco breaks down the spectrum shortage issue in a way ordinary consumers can understand. FCC chairman Julius Genachowski and even Google’s Eric Schmidt are near panic. But the best way to navigate growing data demand isn’t just about handing over more frequencies for the exclusive use of Verizon, AT&T and others. Sharing spectrum among multiple users may offer a solution that could open up more spectrum for everyone.  (2 minutes)

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