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With the advent of high speed broadband and streamed online video, an analyst at Morgan Stanley is predicting that by 2015, more than half of all television revenue will come from subscription fees charged to access it.  Ben Swinburne says the entire television model is being turned on its head by broadband video, with cable, phone and satellite companies scrambling to protect the average $85 Americans spend every month for broadband Internet and television service.

Among Swinburne’s predictions:

• Cable and telephone broadband will increasingly be the delivery platform for television programming with at least 50% of all televisions connected directly to the Internet by 2015;
• Advertising revenue will continue to lose prominence, with networks and programmers seeking direct payments from consumers in the form of monthly subscriptions or pay-per-view to access even traditional over-the-air programming;
• Satellite television is at a distinct disadvantage not offering broadband Internet access, something satellite companies are trying to change;
• Cable companies will face the potential of “online cable” competitors delivering multichannel video packages over broadband connections;
• Content producers, networks, and the cable industry will continue to maintain a united front against a-la-carte television, which could dramatically reduce the revenue the entertainment industry earns from selling multi-hundred channel cable and satellite video packages.

Swinburne speaks with Carol Massar and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.”  (4 minutes)

A Cincinnati-area man found a DirecTV promotion from his local phone company promising a full package of television programming with a DVR box for just $30 a month.  A month later, that “bargain” literally emptied his checking account of more than $400.

Cincinnati Bell, like several other telephone companies, tries to compete for “triple play” customers accustomed to one bill for phone, Internet, and television service.  But where the company’s fiber network does not extend, customers can only get telco-TV by signing up for a DirecTV satellite television package.

Gary Gideon of Westwood learned the hard way that phone company promotions promising attractive prices are often tempered with paragraphs of fine print which make savings elusive.  In this case, the trouble began when Gideon thought he was receiving the standard DirecTV DVR that was included in the promotion.  Instead, the company supplied him with an HD DVR that carries a hefty additional charge, turning his $29.99 price he was originally promised into $49.85 instead — nearly $20 extra a month.

When Gideon complained about the surprise charges, he was offered a DVR downgrade, if he was willing to pony up an expensive deposit he was never asked to pay for the more deluxe model.  The installer responsible for Gideon’s setup promised he could walk away and cancel the package without any harm done.  But a month later, DirecTV deducted nearly $400 from his checking account to cover “early termination fees.”

Despite the assurances Gideon received, the satellite company’s customer service agents refused to budge on waiving the termination fee for just a few weeks of service, telling Gideon “nobody” has the power to waive such fees.

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Nobody except the media or an empowered customer service representative.  WKRC-TV in Cincinnati covered Gideon’s nightmare and found DirecTV only too willing to reverse the early termination fees they refused to refund earlier.  They said it was “good customer relations” to do so.  It’s also good public relations on the six o’clock news.

When dealing with satellite providers delivering service on behalf of a phone company, always carefully review the fine print for equipment and installation fees, contract terms and obligations, and disclosures for any additional charges.  If the equipment does not match what the offer provided, refuse it.  Remember that the truck plastered with DirecTV logos that appears in your driveway to handle the installation is probably an independent contractor — one that usually cannot make promises on behalf of the satellite company.  (2 minutes)

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Bloomberg News covers Sprint’s increasingly aggressive pushback against the merger of AT&T and T-Mobile.  But while Bloomberg points out consumer groups are using websites to help consumers file comments opposing the deal, they ignore the fact deal supporters are engaged in their own dollar-a-holler campaign to win the merger’s approval.  (2 minutes)

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The opposition to the merger of AT&T and T-Mobile is growing louder and more organized as smaller carriers join Sprint’s opposition efforts. Consumer groups roundly dismiss the proposed merger as anti-competition and anti-consumer.  Michael Nelson, a securities analyst, tells Bloomberg News the vote for the merger’s approval could be close and the company will probably have to agree to more concessions than it thinks.  But considering AT&T’s enormous lobbying power, Nelson still thinks the deal will squeak through.  Nelson, however, warns the merger will bring about a considerable reduction in the disruptive pricing T-Mobile has engaged in — pricing that benefits consumers and forces larger carriers to follow suit.  To Nelson, eliminating an aggressive competitor like T-Mobile will bring about what he calls “a rational competitive environment.”  That means higher prices, no surprises, and a stagnant marketplace.  Wall Street understands the implications of this deal, all while knowingly winking at AT&T’s marketing/lobbying machine that claims reduced competition = better service.  (4 minutes)

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Southern Cross has the monopoly for international fiber connections between New Zealand and the rest of the world.

Three companies — Telecom New Zealand, Verizon, and Optus jointly own the single underseas fiber network that connects New Zealand with the rest of the world.  Unless a second underseas fiber provider provides competition, the monopoly control on international connectivity may guarantee New Zealand an ultra fast fiber broadband network for domestic use, but leave consumers heavily usage-capped and subjected to monopoly price-gouging for international traffic.  Those are the claims of Sam Morgan, a venture capitalist and philanthropist who advises Pacific Fibre, the company that wants to bring that second underseas fiber cable to New Zealand.

American and Canadian providers routinely point to Australia and New Zealand as examples of countries with usage-caps firmly in place, arguing this provides justification to do likewise in North America.  But usage caps in the South Pacific are a product of international capacity shortages — a problem not found in either the United States or Canada, so their claims have no merit.

Morgan explores the implications of a second fiber cable reaching New Zealand — the imminent removal of the hated Internet Overcharging schemes.  The clip comes courtesy of TV New Zealand.  (17 minutes)

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Warning: Loud Volume Alert!  Adjust your volume controls before playing.

An increasing number of phone and cable companies are introducing new “convenience fees” for customers making payments by phone or using the company’s online website.  That is the finding of a new report from WOAI-TV in San Antonio.  While few companies currently charge for payments scheduled well in advance, an increasing number are asking for fees ranging from $1.99 to $25 for using online bill payment systems or making last minute payments over the phone.

If your provider charges a fee, be sure to ask for it to be waived, especially if you have a good payment history.  If you are charged the fee anyway, file a complaint with the Better Business Bureau, which should get the attention of the executive customer service team empowered to refund it back to your account.

Paying to pay is just another way for providers to reap more revenue from customers, even when they are trying to make payments on time.  (3 minutes)