Just months after starting to rollout a new generation of Comcast’s X1 “entertainment operating system” set-top boxes, the cable company is preparing to upgrade the cable television experience with X2.

Comcast, like many other cable operators, is gradually moving to IP and cloud capable set-top equipment as television transitions towards an all-digital platform. The traditional set-top box has proved expensive, cumbersome, and often annoying for customers trying to navigate through hundreds of cable television channels with a less-than-ideal on-screen program guide.

X2 hopes to change that perception with a customizable dashboard that learns viewer preferences over time and makes intelligent suggestions for customers looking for something to watch. Using a cloud based platform also means much easier upgrades. X2 also erases the line dividing traditional cable channels and streaming online video, which would allow Comcast to use its broadband network to distribute video programming and integrate social media.

X2 has, so far, been largely a “by-invitation” affair, with customers invited to preview the new interface on their current X1 equipment by pressing this key sequence with their remote control: EXIT-EXIT-EXIT-X-T-W-O

In addition to improving TV viewing, X2 also sets the stage for a cloud-based DVR being tested in Boston and Philadelphia and live-streaming Comcast’s TV lineup direct to wireless devices in the home.

A Comcast spokesperson tells us the X1 (and X2) platforms will be available to a substantial number of customers this year.

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Comcast produced this video showcasing the development of the X2 platform. (3:07)

Time Warner Cable TV subscribers in Southern California can now access local over-the-air television signals on the company’s TWC TV app, expanding the lineup of hundreds of cable channels to now include the major network affiliates — a significant gap in the “TV Everywhere” app for most customers.

Residents in Los Angeles and San Diego join those in New York and Kansas City that can now receive local over the air programming on their home computer, tablet, game console, or Roku box. Time Warner Cable requires viewers to subscribe to both its television and broadband services to watch, and only from your home’s Wi-Fi network.

The service is designed to bring value to Time Warner’s cable TV package and offer subscribers the opportunity to watch cable programming without an additional set-top box. Current licensing restrictions keep Time Warner from offering most television programming while on the go, but the cable company is attempting to negotiate those rights when programming contracts come up for renewal.

The major networks are not waiting for cable operators to negotiate with them, however:

• ABC: The network’s Watch ABC app has been available since the spring and offers live streaming of the local ABC station in eight major markets including New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles. Viewers must live within the viewing area to watch;
• CBS: The network has purchased part ownership in Syncbak which specializes in digital content delivery, but the network has not announced plans for a streaming app;
• FOX: In addition to Hulu/+, FOX wants to adopt mobile broadcast technology using the Dyle Mobile platform, which allows device owners to receive over the air television with the use of a special add-on antenna;
• NBC: NBC will follow ABC and offer live viewing of local affiliates over an app starting in large cities early next year.

News that two major cable operators are contemplating breaking up Time Warner Cable and dividing customers between them has caused stock prices to jump for all three of the companies involved.

CNBC reported Friday that Time Warner Cable approached Comcast earlier this year about a possible friendly takeover under Comcast’s banner to avoid an anticipated leveraged takeover bid by Charter Communications. Top Time Warner Cable executives have repeatedly stressed any offer that left a combined company mired in debt would be disadvantageous to Time Warner Cable shareholders, a clear reference to the type of offer Charter is reportedly preparing. But the executives also stressed they were not ruling out any merger or sale opportunities.

News that there were two potential rivals for Time Warner Cable excited investors, particularly when it was revealed possible suitor Comcast is also separately talking to Charter about a possible joint bid that would split up Time Warner Cable customers while minimizing potential regulatory scrutiny.

The Wall Street Journal reported Charter is nearing completion of a complicated financing arrangement that some analysts expect could include up to $15 billion in debt to finance a buyout of Time Warner Cable. Such deals are not unprecedented. Dr. John Malone’s specialty is leveraged buyouts, a technique he used extensively in the 1980s and 1990s to buy countless smaller cable operators in a quest to build Tele-Communications, Inc. (TCI) into the nation’s then-biggest cable operator.

In addition to Barclays Bank, Bank of America, and Deutsche Bank — all expected to finance Malone’s bid — Comcast may also inject cash should it team up with Charter’s buyout. Comcast is interested in acquiring new markets without drawing fire from antitrust regulators.

If the two companies do join forces and pull off a deal, Time Warner Cable’s current subscribers will be transitioned to Charter or Comcast within a year. That is what happened in 2006 to former customers of bankrupt Adelphia Cable who eventually became Comcast or Time Warner Cable customers. Analysts predict the two companies would divide up Time Warner Cable territory according to their respective footprints. New York and Texas would likely face a switch to Comcast service, for example, while North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, and Southern California would likely be turned over to Charter.

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CNBC reports Charter Cable and Comcast might both be interested in a buyout of Time Warner Cable that would dismantle the company and divide subscribers between them. (4:18)

Reportedly financing the next era of cable consolidation.

Both bids are very real possibilities according to Wall Street analysts. Comcast has sought formal guidance on how to deal with the antitrust implications of a controversial merger between the largest and second-largest cable operators in the country. The industry has laid the groundwork for another wave of consolidation by winning its 2009 court challenge of FCC rules limiting the total market share of any single cable operator to 30 percent. Despite that, a Comcast-Time Warner Cable deal would still face intense scrutiny from the Justice Department. Getting the deal past the FCC may be a deal-breaker, admits Craig Moffett from MoffettNathanson.

“The FCC applies a public interest test that would be much more subjective,” Moffett said. “It wouldn’t be a slam dunk by any means. The FCC would be concerned that Comcast would have de facto control over what would be available on television. If a programmer couldn’t cut a deal with Comcast, they wouldn’t exist.”

Roberts

Supporters and opponents of the deal are already lining up. Charter shareholders would likely benefit from a Charter-only buyout so they generally support the deal. Time Warner Cable clearly prefers a deal with Comcast because it can afford a buyout without massive debt financing and deliver shareholder value. Comcast shareholders are also encouraging Comcast to consider s deal with Time Warner Cable. Left out of the equation are Time Warner Cable customers, little more than passive bystanders watching the multi-billion dollar drama.

The personalities involved may also be worth considering, because Comcast CEO Brian Roberts and John Malone have history, notes the Los Angeles Times:

Malone and Roberts first brushed up against each other more than two decades ago. At that time, both Liberty and Comcast were shareholders in Turner Broadcasting, the parent of CNN, TNT, TBS and Cartoon Network. When Time Warner, which was also a shareholder, made a move to buy the entire company,  there was tension because Comcast felt Liberty got a better deal to sell its stake. Roberts grumbled at the time that Liberty was getting “preferential treatment.”

A few years later, it was Malone’s turn to be mad at Roberts. When TCI founder Bob Magness died in 1996, Roberts made a covert attempt to buy his shares, which would have given him control of [TCI]. Malone beat back the effort, but it left a bad taste in his mouth.

“Malone was livid,” wrote Mark Robichaux in his book, “Cable Cowboy: John Malone and the Rise of the Modern Cable Business.”

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Even cable stock analyst Craig Moffett is somewhat pessimistic a Comcast-TWC merger would have smooth sailing through the FCC’s approval process. Moffett worries Comcast would have too much power over programming content. (3:53)

Ironically, when Malone sold TCI to AT&T, the telephone company would later sell its cable assets to Comcast, run by… and Brian Roberts.

Most of the cable industry agrees that the increasing power of broadcasters, studios, and cable programmers is behind the renewed interest in cable consolidation. The industry believes consolidation provides leverage to block massive rate increases in renewal contracts. If a programmer doesn’t budge, the network could instantly lose tens of millions of potential viewers until a new contract is signed.

Many in the cable industry suspect when Glenn Britt retires as CEO by year’s end, Time Warner Cable’s days are numbered. But any new owner should not expect guaranteed smooth sailing.

“We expect a Comcast-TWC deal would draw intense antitrust/regulatory scrutiny and likely resistance, stoked by raw political pushback from cable critics and possibly rivals who would argue it’s simply a ‘bridge too far’ or ‘unthinkable,’” Stifel telecom analysts Christopher C. King and David Kaut wrote in a recent note to clients. “We believe government approval would be possible, but it would be costly, with serious risk. This would be a brawl.”

Usage Cap Man may soon visit Time Warner Cable customers if either Charter or Comcast becomes the new owner.

While the industry frames consolidation around cable TV programming costs, broadband consumers also face an impact from any demise of Time Warner Cable. To date, Time Warner Cable executives have repeatedly defended the presence of an unlimited use tier for its residential broadband customers. Charter has imposed usage caps and Comcast is studying how to best reimpose them. Either buyer would likely move Time Warner Cable customers to a usage-based billing system that could threaten online video competition.

“Our sense is the DOJ and FCC would have concerns about the market fallout of expanded cable concentration and vertical integration, in a broadband world where cable appears to have the upper hand over wireline telcos in most of the country (i.e., outside of the Verizon FiOS and other fiber-fed areas),” Stifel’s King and Kaut wrote. “We suspect the government would raise objections about the potential for Comcast-TWC bullying of competitors and suppliers, given the extent and linkages of their cable/broadband distribution, programming control, and broadcast ownership.”

Since none of the three providers compete head-on, the loss of “competition” would be minimal. Any Comcast-Time Warner Cable deal would likely include semi-voluntary restrictions like those attached to Comcast’s successful acquisition of NBC-Universal, including short-term bans on discriminating against content providers on its broadband service.

Customers can expect a welcome letter from Comcast and/or Charter Cable as early as spring of next year if Time Warner Cable accepts one of the deals.

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Bloomberg News reports if Comcast helps finance a deal between Charter and Time Warner Cable, Comcast would likely grab Time Warner Cable systems in New York for itself. (2:26)

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Dr. John Cioffi, the “Father of DSL” doesn’t think much of fiber to the home service, suggesting it is a waste of money and delivers budget-busting losses to providers. He has the ear of the man in charge of overseeing Australia’s National Broadband Network, Communications Minister John Turnbull. Turnbull’s public statements imply he supports Cioffi’s approach – a hybrid fiber-copper network similar to AT&T U-verse.

By adopting cheaper VDSL technology, Cioffi claims providers can avoid the “$800 unrecoverable loss per customer Verizon FiOS has experienced” bringing fiber to the home. He also claims fiber to the home service isn’t as robust as fiber proponents claim, with flimsy, easy-to-break fiber cables and loads of service calls commonplace among some European providers.

Few media interviews, including this one with ABC Television, bother to fully disclose how Cioffi has a big dog in the broadband technology fight. Cioffi founded ASSIA, Inc., a firm that markets products and services to DSL providers. ASSIA is backed by investments from AT&T, its first customer, and a handful of overseas telephone companies. Cioffi estimates ASSIA software is used to manage 90 percent of existing DSL accounts in the United States and is a fundamental part of AT&T’s efforts to increase U-verse speeds. Dismantling DSL in favor of fiber could have a marked impact on ASSIA’s profits. (8:47)

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Australia’s new Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull talks with Dr. John Cioffi about the differences between VDSL and fiber technologies. Cioffi bashes one form of fiber to the home service dubbed “GPON” because it shares infrastructure. Cioffi claims fiber speeds drop to 20Mbps when a few dozen people share a GPON connection. When in Paris, Cioffi claims his shared fiber connection maxed out at 2.5Mbps while ADSL still ran at 6Mbps. (3:52)

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Unsurprisingly, Cioffi claims his company’s software is essential for a good vectored VDSL user experience. Cioffi also claims VDSL can easily beat GPON fiber broadband speeds, a very controversial claim. In Cioffi’s view, even Wi-Fi can perform better than fiber. Finally, Cioffi claims Google is spending $8,000 per customer to deploy its fiber to the home network, when VDSL can do the job for much less money. (2:58)

Netflix today announced a major overhaul of how its customers navigate the online service over Smart TVs or TV-connected devices like game consoles, set-top boxes and Blu-ray players.

“Today we are excited to unveil the biggest update in Netflix history to our TV experience,” said Chris Jaffe, vice president of product innovation. “This update improves the Netflix TV for Netflix members around the world and for the first time extends rich features to platforms such as Roku, Smart TV and Blu-ray players as well as PlayStation and Xbox 360.”

Most of the changes involve the on-screen interface, which becomes more animated and interactive. Improved graphics include three large images for each show more in context with a specific title. An improved synopsis gives you more detail about a show and why Netflix recommends you watch, based on your configured personal preferences. Social network interactivity is also prominent, allowing you to see if any friends have viewed a title before you.

A major improvement is an enhanced search engine, allowing searches by title, actor, or director. The search interface is more TV-screen friendly as well.

Other features:

• Support for Netflix Profiles across all devices
• Support for voice on Xbox 360
• Support for pointer-based navigation on Smart TVs
• A redesign of post-play, the feature that automatically starts the next episode of a TV show or shows recommendations after watching a movie

The updated Netflix TV experience rolls out globally beginning on Nov. 13 and will take about two weeks to reach all devices. The update will go to devices including PlayStation 3, PlayStation 4, Xbox 360, Roku 3, and new and future Smart TVs and Blu-Ray players. In addition, some recent Smart TVs and Blu-Ray players may receive this based on manufacturer’s update plans. Roku 2 will receive this update early next year.

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Introducing a brand new Netflix experience on TVs and connected devices. [1:24]