An industry orphan?

Sprint CEO Dan Hesse probably rues the day his Board of Directors pulled the plug on a merger deal that would have combined MetroPCS and Sprint back in February. The merger was abandoned after board members openly worried the transaction would distract Sprint from its network improvement project — dubbed Network Vision — then just getting underway.

The deal with T-Mobile and MetroPCS may have limited Sprint’s takeover options, although analysts say a hostile counteroffer for MetroPCS could still take the small carrier away from T-Mobile.

Hesse himself is a proponent of additional wireless industry consolidation. He believes the current market has too many wireless carriers and the two dominant providers — AT&T and Verizon — enjoy economy of scale Sprint cannot hope to achieve in its current position.

Hesse

Wall Street was more pessimistic about Sprint after the T-Mobile/MetroPCS merger was announced, suggesting they may be an industry orphan, pushed into a corner and running out of options.

Shares of Leap Wireless, the owner of Cricket, rose as much as 17 percent after the T-Mobile deal was announced, signaling Cricket is likely an endangered species. Leap’s cellular network is similar in scope to MetroPCS, although the two companies largely serve different markets. Wall Street’s favorite dance card has Sprint and Leap Wireless as future partners, and Sprint may be forced to acquire the smaller carrier to save face. Leap operates its own modest network of cell towers and has plans to roll out LTE 4G service to its customers. That spectrum could become important to Sprint, especially in the larger urban areas Cricket targets.

An endangered species.

Some Wall Street analysts say deals with MetroPCS, Leap, and other small regional carriers are small potatoes. Many advocate for a much larger merger between Sprint and T-Mobile to more realistically confront the de-facto duopoly of AT&T and Verizon Wireless.

Regulators under the Obama Administration may take a dim view of a merger that combines the third and fourth largest nationwide carriers, but nobody expects much regulatory resistance approving mergers that wipe out MetroPCS and Cricket.

“The problems that Sprint and T-Mobile have are they are not as big as AT&T and Verizon,” Piper Jaffray’s Chris Larsen told Bloomberg News in a phone interview. “They don’t have the scale so therefore it is harder to compete. Increasing your size 25 percent, it helps. But when you are less than half as big as your rival, getting 25 percent bigger narrows the gap, but it does not close the gap.”

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CNBC reports the T-Mobile/MetroPCS deal reignites wireless consolidation and leaves Sprint in a potentially difficult position.  (5 minutes)

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Bloomberg News reports T-Mobile needs more subscribers, but some Wall Street analysts think the company is making a mistake focusing on the prepaid market.  (1 minute)

The parent company of T-Mobile USA has agreed to buy MetroPCS in a reverse stock split that leaves parent Deutsche Telekom able to eventually spin off the combined entity as an independent company and exit the U.S. market.

The merger will bolster T-Mobile’s mobile spectrum in several large cities, with up to 20MHz available for a robust LTE 4G network, better positioning the company to compete with third-place Sprint.

T-Mobile plans to decommission the smaller carrier’s CDMA network by 2015, gradually shifting  MetroPCS users to T-Mobile’s HSPA+ and LTE networks as customers purchase new equipment. MetroPCS customers will find T-Mobile phones for sale immediately after the deal closes.

“We have no plans to smash together T-Mobile’s GSM and MetroPCS’ CDMA customers together,” said T-Mobile CEO John Legere, defending against any comparison with the Sprint-Nextel merger. “We will be encouraging customers to switch to T-Mobile’s network as customers upgrade their phones.”

Legere says any customers still using MetroPCS’ network during the last 8-12 months before the network is decommissioned will be offered a strong incentive, such as a deeply discounted phone, to move.

Legere

Legere adds the deal will cement T-Mobile’s position as America’s only nationwide carrier offering truly unlimited 4G HSPA+/LTE wireless data service. Sprint’s network still largely depends on 3G and an older, slower standard called WiMAX. Legere says T-Mobile will now become the nation’s largest no-contract phone carrier, and will emphasize it welcomes customers who bring their own phones to the carrier.

Legere adds T-Mobile’s new 4G network will be able to rival the quality of its larger competitors when it is fully deployed.

“The T-Mobile and MetroPCS brands are a great strategic fit – both operationally and culturally,” René Obermann, the chief executive of Deutsche Telekom, said in a statement. “The new company will be the value leader in wireless with the scale, spectrum and financial and other resources to expand its geographic coverage, broaden choice among all types of customers and continue to innovate.”

But the merger also may trigger an even larger wave of wireless consolidation in the industry, as remaining players jockey for position in response to today’s announcement. Both Sprint and Leap Wireless, which owns Cricket, are under increasing pressure from investors to respond. Leap Wireless could soon face a takeover bid itself, either from T-Mobile USA or Sprint. Some investors are even calling for Sprint and T-Mobile to merge, becoming a more effective competitor for Verizon and AT&T.

The proposed  merger still needs approval from the Federal Communications Commission. Regulators are not likely to oppose deals with either MetroPCS or Leap Wireless, as both smaller carriers operate networks that largely do not overlap and both hold only a minuscule market share.

German investors wary about T-Mobile’s new emphasis on prepaid service, considered a negative in Europe, were reassured by Legere that Americans pay higher prices for prepaid, no contract service than what is prevalent in Europe.

The combined T-Mobile/MetroPCS remains the fourth place carrier with 42.5 million customers. Sprint has 56.4 million customers.

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T-Mobile CEO John Legere talks about the benefits of combining T-Mobile USA and MetroPCS. “This isn’t a deal to survive – it’s to thrive.” (5 minutes)

Susan Crawford, President Barack Obama’s former Special Assistant for Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy has the solution for America’s lack of universal broadband, and she solves it in just four Tweets:

• Step 1 gives private companies the push they need to get rural broadband financing within their existing Return on Investment formulas by reducing capital costs for unserved areas;
• Step 2 stops the corporate welfare legislation that protects the incumbent duopoly from publicly-owned competition that can ignore Wall Street’s insistence that more competition = fat profit erosion;
• Step 3 gives the ISPs access to public land and infrastructure either at no or low cost in return for recognizing they are benefiting from that taxpayer-owned infrastructure, so they better not abuse the privilege;
• Step 4 makes ISPs common carriers that have no financial interest in the content transported down broadband lines, thus no incentive to favor their own services while discriminating against others.

Whether such policies can withstand court challenges claiming violation of corporation free speech rights is, of course, another matter. But Crawford’s ideas create incentives for broadband providers to aggressively wire their respective service areas while avoiding monopolizing what travels down those broadband pipelines.

Lafayette, Louisiana has never sit still for private companies bypassing the heart of Cajun country. When electric companies refused to wire the city, the community elected to do it themselves. When Cox Cable and AT&T said no to providing the kind of cutting-edge broadband that would allow Lafayette to protect its reputation as an entrepreneur-driven community, publicly owned utility LUS constructed a fiber to the home broadband network for every resident and business. Today, LUS Fiber has helped transform the parish, with half the unemployment rate of the rest of the country and an attractive place for digital economy jobs. It has even helped curtail well-educated recent graduates moving away in search of high-tech employment.

“There really is no infrastructure more important in the 21st century economy than fiber,” said Geoff Daily, executive director of Fibercorps, a non-profit group promoting digital economic development in Lafayette.

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Watch how LUS Fiber has transformed the lives of students, attracted new high-tech business, and promoted job growth with broadband infrastructure most cable and phone companies simply won’t provide.  (9 minutes)

AT&T has secured support from the Federal Communications Commission for authority to deploy 4G LTE service within a 20MHz portion of the 2.3GHz WCS band after cutting a deal with a next door neighbor especially sensitive about potential interference.

WCS spectrum holders have fought for years to develop commercially viable wireless service, but faced regular opposition from the satellite radio industry concerned that interference problems would result from using the band for mobile data. Right in the middle of the WCS band is Sirius XM, which depends on sensitive receivers to pick up the company’s satellite signal.

But now AT&T and Sirius XM have worked out a compromise both companies believe will protect mobile data and satellite radio. AT&T has conceded 10MHz of its total WCS spectrum for two 5MHz guard bands, devoid of signals, around Sirius XM’s frequencies. Sirius XM signal engineers believe this, combined with power limits, will protect radio receivers from overloading whenever near AT&T’s ground-based LTE cell towers.

In August, AT&T announced its intention to acquire WCS spectrum from NextWave Wireless, a spectrum-squatting holding company, for $600 million. The phone company is also attempting to acquire the remainder of WCS spectrum from the last two significant holders — Comcast and Horizon Wi-Com, which both have between 10-25MHz of spectrum in 149 and 132 communities respectively.

When the acquisitions are complete, AT&T will have WCS spectrum covering virtually the entire nation.

Frequencies in the 2.3GHz band are best received outdoors. Signals crossing windows and walls lose potency. (Courtesy: Greenpacket)

AT&T says it needs the spectrum to further deploy 4G LTE data service across the country. But the company admits it will take up to five years before it can switch on the new frequencies — no current smartphones support the 2.3GHz WCS band.

AT&T has also included provisions to ensure fixed wireless base stations will be able to utilize AT&T’s WCS spectrum, within reasonable limits to protect Sirius XM radios from harmful interference. That has important implications for AT&T’s long-term view that rural landline and broadband service is best delivered over a wireless network.

A major limitation of spectrum in the 2GHz band is the quality of indoor coverage it can deliver. As many Clearwire customers can attest, these frequencies suffer from high transmission loss, poor ability for diffraction, and most importantly, poor building penetration — especially in urban and suburban areas. Tall nearby buildings, homes, and even trees all impede WCS reception. According to Andrea Goldsmith in her book Wireless Communications, there is also a 6dB penetration loss when 2.5GHz signals cross un-insulated glass windows and a 13dB loss for concrete walls, with wood falling somewhere in-between.

But rural areas do better, in part thanks to the higher likelihood of unimpeded line-of-sight access between a cell tower and receiver. AT&T’s fixed wireless solution would place a small antenna on the roof or side of a home, positioned for maximum reception from the nearest cell tower. The signal is then brought indoors through cabling (or in some cases Wi-Fi) and available to customers, comparable to a home broadband connection.

AT&T’s strong spectrum position in WCS gives the company an opportunity to construct a robust, near-nationwide wireless network suitable for rural wireless communications. In more urban areas, WCS could operate seamlessly with AT&T’s lower frequency holdings and offer an extension of its current LTE service.

AT&T’s acquisition of WCS has several important implications for the wireless marketplace:

2GHz signals travel the least distance in urban and suburban areas, often blocked or degraded by buildings or trees. But better results in rural areas suggest AT&T’s WCS spectrum could partly be deployed as a fixed wireless broadband solution, if enough towers are available to support it. (Courtesy: Greenpacket)

1. It proves AT&T never needed to acquire T-Mobile USA. Through spectrum acquisitions like WCS, AT&T can still find relatively inexpensive spectrum suitable for mobile broadband use, without spending tens of billions to acquire a competitor just to poach its spectrum and eliminate a competitor.

2. The Competitive Carriers Association worries AT&T’s acquisition of secondary spectrum holders is allowing the company to gather a massive amount of spectrum.

CCA President & CEO Steven K. Berry said, “Allowing the largest carriers to obtain unlimited amounts of  spectrum on the secondary market raises serious competitive concerns.  The only way for the FCC to truly see the devastating consequences of further spectrum aggregation is by consolidating the proposed applications.  On their own, AT&T’s proposed license acquisitions may not seem significant, but when added together, it totals to a significant amount of spectrum.”

Berry continued, “Should the FCC decide to approve the transactions, it must impose conditions to ensure interoperability across the Lower 700 MHz band and to ensure data roaming – both are absolutely essential ingredients to a healthy, competitive marketplace.  Competitive carriers need access to usable spectrum, and I urge the Commission to carefully review the negative impact these transactions will have on the wireless marketplace.”

3. Clearwire’s 2.5GHz spectrum could become more valuable if AT&T can demonstrate its 2.3GHz service can deliver robust service, if provisioned adequately for customers. Clearwire’s capital investments and overall performance of its limited coverage WiMAX network have been deemed inadequate by its biggest partner Sprint, now constructing its own 4G LTE network to replace Clearwire’s WiMAX network.

4. Credit Suisse analyst Jonathan Chaplin notes Verizon will still have a better standing in spectrum even with AT&T WCS: “AT&T will have the following available for LTE: 20 MHz of 700 MHz nationwide; 20 MHz of WCS nationwide; a few AWS licenses (5 MHz on average). With Verizon’s deal with large cable companies, Verizon will have: 20 MHz of 700 MHz nationwide; 20 MHz of AWS nationwide; another 10 MHz of AWS in 60 percent of the country (13 MHz on average). In addition, Verizon’s spectrum is usable immediately, while AT&T’s WCS will take three to five years to deploy.”