Just one technician can bring Time Warner Cable to its knees.

Time Warner Cable broadband and on-demand television services were unavailable for about three hours this morning after routine maintenance turned into a nationwide outage that affected early risers trying to go online.

Things began to go wrong at around 4:30am ET when Time Warner Cable Internet connections began dropping across the country. The problems also affected on-demand viewing for Time Warner Cable TV customers and brought down Time Warner Cable’s own website.

The company blamed a problem with their backbone connection during routine maintenance. The company said it schedules such work for the very early morning hours to minimize customer disruptions. But once alarm clocks on the east coast began ringing, customers discovered they had no Internet service.

The outage persisted until around 6am ET, although some customers were not back online until after 7am.

Although complaints about Time Warner Cable began flooding social media networks as the sun went up, customers also used the outage as an opportunity to oppose the Comcast-Time Warner Cable merger. The outage demonstrates that a single technician making a mistake at one of the nation’s largest cable companies can disable services for millions.

Virtually every provider experiences a significant outage affecting many or most of their customers at least once a year:

This outage map depicts this morning’s service disruption at Time Warner Cable.

• 10 months ago, Comcast’s heavily promoted X1 platform suffered a national outage lasting three hours;
• In 2012, Comcast suffered a nationwide e-mail outage also lasting approximately three hours;
• AT&T U-verse went down across the country in April for more than four hours;
• Even wireless isn’t perfect: In 2012, Verizon Wireless suffered a national 4G LTE outage lasting nearly four hours.

Time Warner Cable will credit you for their outage, but only if you ask:

• Phone: 855-225-7898
• Complete the menu options to launch an Online Chat
• E-Mail: [email protected]

Meanwhile, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo promised an investigation in a statement issued Wednesday:

Today’s widespread internet outage that has apparently impacted more than 11 million customers at Time Warner – which is based in New York – is a stark reminder that our economy is increasingly dependent on a reliable broadband network. That is one of the reasons why I pushed for a stronger standard of review for cable company mergers earlier this year.

I have directed the New York State Department of Public Service to investigate this outage as part of its review of Comcast’s proposed merger with Time Warner. The Department will also review whether the outage affected Time Warner’s provision of telephone service in any way. In addition, the Department will include its analysis of this event in its ongoing study of the telecom industry, which is exploring potential changes to the regulatory landscape pertaining to telephone, internet and cable. Dependable internet service is a vital link in our daily lives and telecommunications companies have a responsibility to deliver reliable service to their customers.

More than 50 mayors of towns and cities large and small regurgitated Comcast-provided talking points in a joint letter submitted to the FCC in support of the Comcast-Time Warner Cable merger:

The combination of these two American companies will bring benefits to every affected city. Cities joining the Comcast service area will benefit from increased network investment, faster Internet speeds, improved video options and leading community development programs to help us tackle important community challenges like the digital divide. Existing Comcast markets will enjoy the benefits of a company with the scale and scope to invest in innovation and deliver products and services on a regional basis.

For us, the most significant aspect of the proposed transaction is its capacity to propel new investment in infrastructure in Time Warner markets that will enhance video and Internet service in our communities. Comcast has pledged to invest hundreds of millions of dollars a year speeding up and improving the combined company’s networks.

We also view positively the apparent response to this development from other companies that provide similar services. Since the Comcast Time Warner Cable transaction was proposed, Google has announced plans to expand its high-speed Fiber service to 34 new communities, AT&T has announced plans to expand its 1 gigabit U-Verse service to 100 new municipalities including 21 large cities, and Sprint’s corporate parent has proposed to build a 200 Mbps wireless network for the US.

In addition to being terribly misleading, parts of the letter are factually inaccurate. The letter’s text was taken almost entirely from Comcast’s own talking points released to the media and disclosed to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown
2012: Time Warner Cable is naughty.
2014: Time Warner Cable is nice.

Remarkably, Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown managed a complete flip-flop on his views of Time Warner Cable. In 2012, he co-signed a letter accusing Comcast and Time Warner Cable of anticompetitive behavior, runaway rate increases, and a growing digital divide. He was speaking about Comcast and Time Warner Cable’s  decision to partner with Verizon Wireless to jointly market products to their customers:

“We are deeply worried that the anti-competitive partnership between Verizon Wireless, the nation’s largest wireless provider, and four of the leading cable companies will have a negative impact on economic development and job creation in our cities, leading to higher prices, fewer service options, and a growing digital divide, “ the letter reads. “As you review the Verizon Wireless/cable transaction, we strongly urge you to examine the impact of this transaction on competition and consumer choice, and ensure that our communities are not left behind.”

This year, despite the fact both Comcast and Time Warner Cable still have their cross-marketing agreement with Verizon and both cable operators have raised prices, Brown joined the other mayors heaping praise on both cable companies:

Time Warner Cable has been a responsible corporate citizen whose efforts will only be enhanced by joining forces with Comcast’s community investment programs. Comcast has established itself as an industry leader and exemplary community partner who invests in its local communities and works hand in hand with local governments on critical social challenges like the digital divide.

Except when it is not.

Matthew Keys, who comments on journalism and social media, notes the Comcast merger has little to do with broadband expansion at other companies:

But the mayors failed to note that Sprint’s pledge of a faster wireless data network was predicated on a merger with rival T-Mobile, which fell through earlier this month. In addition, AT&T’s 1-Gigabit Internet service is likely being offered as an incentive for the FCC to approve its own proposed merger with Comcast competitor DirecTV; the Internet service is offered to residents in a handful of cities at a whopping $100 a month, nearly triple what the company sells it’s basic broadband Internet service for. And while the mayors assert that Google is expanding its Fiber service to more than 30 areas, they fail to note that Google is in preliminary talks with those communities and that the rollout may never happen.

If any providers inspired a broadband speed Renaissance, it was Google Fiber and a handful of gigabit community-owned fiber networks like EPB in Chattanooga, all demonstrating fast speeds and affordable pricing can go hand in hand when your primary interest is serving customers, not shoveling money at shareholders.

Customers who happen to live in the cities below might want to fill the email boxes and melt down the phone lines of these mayors who have demonstrated a willingness to throw their constituents under the bus (Matthew Keys did an exceptional job collecting their contact information).

Feel free to share our fact-based testimony with the mayors and let them know you don’t appreciate the fact they are spending taxpayer time and money advocating for a multi-billion dollar cable merger the majority of Americans oppose. Then remind them if this merger succeeds, you will think of them every time you have a problem with your cable service, when your bill increases, and when you discover Comcast has rationed your use of the Internet with a compulsory usage allowance. Because these problems always come fast and furious with Comcast, let them know you will have no trouble recalling their role in bringing Comcast to town when you go and vote.

This article updated 8/28 to reflect that Pedro Segarra is the mayor of Hartford, Conn., not Hartford, Colo.

[Ed. Note: New York’s DPS and PSC in this instance are synonymous.]

Stop the Cap! agrees with the DPS staff’s conclusion that the petitioners (Comcast and Time Warner Cable) have failed to meet their burden of demonstrating that the transaction is in the public interest for New York residents.

However, we are concerned that the proposed mitigation strategies suggested by DPS staff are insufficient to remedy this. We also challenge some of the assigned values placed on Comcast’s “benefits” to produce a net positive for New Yorkers because the DPS staff is relying on incomplete information in assigning values and not accounting for additional costs that will be incurred by Comcast customers.

First, the Commission must be aware that previous attempts to impose behavioral remedies on these types of mergers to generate net positive benefits have traditionally failed to protect consumers after the merger deals are approved. Professor John E. Kwoka, Jr., in his study, “Does Merger Control Work? A Retrospective on U.S. Enforcement Actions and Merger Outcomes,” [2] found numerous examples of mitigation strategies and conditional approvals that ultimately failed to protect ratepayers from the effects of a concentrated marketplace. Few businesses in New York are as concentrated as this state’s cable companies.[3]

Second, the DPS staff’s proposal that Comcast provide at least $303.5 million in incremental benefits to New York residents over the next ten years to realize our state’s share of benefits from the proposed transaction ignores Comcast’s ability to recapture those benefits through relentless rate increases, well in excess of the cost of providing the service.

The DPS staff has also elected to rely on the Federal Communications Commission to mandate conditions to mitigate potential risks of vertical market power. That is unwise and effectively forfeits the authority given to the Commission by the New York State legislature to protect the public interest of New York residents. The FCC does not have that responsibility.

Specific Objections and Concerns Regarding DPS Staff Recommendations to Create Public Benefits

1. Investment

The staff has recommended that the combined entity must demonstrate a commitment to make new investments or invest beyond Time Warner’s current capital investment budgets.

The problem with this formula is that ordinary planned investments as part of creating new revenue-generating opportunities can be claimed as “extra investments” for the benefit of New Yorkers, despite the fact those investments would have been made with or without an agreement compelling the investment. It also ignores the impact New York cable subscribers care about the most – their rising monthly bill.

Comcast blames those rate increases partly on the cost of increased investment. In Portland, Ore. Comcast spokeswoman Theressa Dulaney blamed annual rate hikes partly on precisely the type of investments the DPS staff declares would be a net benefit to New Yorkers.

“We continue making investments in our network and next-generation technology to make enhancements customers want and value, including faster Internet speeds, more multiplatform video and better customer service,” Dulaney said in a written statement.[4]

Comcast has asserted it will increase capital spending to improve service for Time Warner Cable customers, but continues to ignore the fact Time Warner Cable’s own upgrade program meets or surpasses Comcast’s own menu of services often at a lower cost. New Yorkers will not benefit if Comcast’s investments yield only incrementally better technology, but at a significantly higher cost and a worse customer service experience. The Commission should at a minimum establish Time Warner Cable’s Maxx service and pricing as a benchmark when comparing the products and services of the two companies and demand Comcast do better.

2. Cable television “enhancements”

The DPS staff is correct to express skepticism about the relative benefits of Comcast’s expanded TV offerings, but then proceeds to declare the expanded programming an “incremental benefit for New York customers.”

While the DPS staff seems willing to grant Comcast credit for service improvements, it seems to lack a willingness to “deduct points” when Comcast’s improvements come at a significantly higher price and does not consider the implications of Comcast’s current market testing of broadband usage control measures like data caps/thresholds will have on Time Warner Cable customers.

The DPS staff must take care not to assign a dollar amount of an incremental benefit in Comcast’s column, but not be willing to deduct or transfer those dollars back to the column representing New York residents faced with higher prices, service restrictions, or dramatically worse customer service.

For example, Comcast’s touted television enhancements promise what Americans have said they absolutely do not want – a bigger cable TV package and a growing cable television bill. According to the Washington Post, in 2012 U.S. cable subscribers got a record average of 189 channels in prepackaged bundles but watched only 17 of those channels.[5] And the appetite to view more channels, even when offered vastly more television content, hasn’t changed much in years. In five years, cable companies added 60 more channels for the typical subscriber, but viewers haven’t increased their consumption of new content. They have consistently watched an average of 17 channels.

But their cable television bill has dramatically increased. In Oregon, Comcast cable customers paid $41.55 a month for Comcast’s “Digital Starter” package in 2004. In 2013, the price increased to $70.49.[6]

Cohen

A-la-carte cable television is definitely not on the menu, despite consumer interest in paying only for the channels one wishes to receive.

As we noted in our previous filing[7], there are a range of other costs the DPS staff is not counting in its calculations:

• A transition to all-digital cable television imposes added consumer costs from required set top boxes or ancillary digital boxes that can manage Comcast’s encrypted television lineup. These costs start at $25 a year in additional outlet fees per connected television, or $75 if an average household’s three television sets are connected to cable;
• Comcast’s much-heralded X1 set top platform, a hallmark of its filing with New York regulators, includes an upgrade fee of up to $99 for the equipment – more than the cost of an entire month of cable television service;
• Comcast’s current market trials of “usage thresholds” which place an allowance on how much a subscriber can use the Internet before overlimit fees are charged applies to XFINITY on-demand video when a tablet, phone, or home computer is used to watch. Although Comcast’s online viewing options may be more plentiful, customers in these market trial areas have discovered a double-edged sword when online viewing erodes away their monthly Internet usage allowance.

Unfortunately, none of these additional costs or limits that could or are likely to be incurred by New York subscribers are accounted for in the DPS staff recommendations.

3. Enhanced Wi-Fi Hotspot Deployment

DPS staff seems unaware the vast majority of Comcast’s Wi-Fi hotspot deployments come from Comcast residential customers sharing their Comcast-supplied network device with other Comcast customers. Comcast charges $8-9 a month to lease its wireless gateway that provisions an extra Wi-Fi signal available to guest users. But customers carry almost all of the costs –indefinite lease charges, installation, ongoing power use, and any potential security lapses.[8]

4. DPS Staff Wrongly Offers Consumer Benefit Credits to Comcast for Improving Customer Service

We strongly disagree with the DPS staff proposal to credit an overall consumer value of $50 million in return for Comcast’s commitment to improve its perennially terrible customer service rating.

Comcast’s well-documented poor customer service record alone should be sufficient to demonstrate this merger in not in the public interest of New York. Crediting $50 million in consumer value if Comcast agrees to adhere to a customer service standard any company should meet as a normal cost of doing business is unacceptable.

Under the new Public Service Law, it is Comcast alone that must demonstrate its proposal is in the public interest. The DPS staff has determined it has not met that burden. This is an unfortunate example of DPS staff showing a willingness to tolerate Comcast’s current unacceptable customer service performance and transfer a portion of the consumer benefit credit New Yorkers should enjoy as a result of the merger just to cajole Comcast to meet minimal customer service standards sometime in the future.

Comcast should arrive in New York demonstrating a solid record of customer service before being granted approval of this transaction. It is not in the public interest to subject (even if temporarily) New York residents to an even worse customer service experience than they currently receive from Time Warner Cable. We are concerned about the appearance that DPS staff is offering mitigation strategies to Comcast to help it squeeze past a public interest test it has currently failed in their view.

The DPS staff has also provided no details about its proposed public benefit program. Since customers are the ones that will suffer as a result of bad customer service, any funds captured by New York from Comcast should be rebated in full to New York customers, not for any other purpose.

Comcast executives have made two public statements that should also be weighed carefully in any recommendations to the Public Service Commission:

• Comcast executive vice president David Cohen has predicted usage allowances will be imposed on all Comcast customers within five years.[9]
• “We’re certainly not promising that customer bills are going to go down or even increase less rapidly.”[10] Comcast executive vice president David Cohen

[1] http://documents.dps.ny.gov/public/Common/ViewDoc.aspx?DocRefId={0A5EAC88-6AB7-4F79-862C-B6C6B6D2E4ED}

[2] John E. Kwoka, Jr. and Diana L. Moss, “Behavioral Merger Remedies: Evaluation and Implications for

Antitrust Enforcement,” at 22, available at

http://antitrustinstitute.org/sites/default/files/AAI_wp_behavioral%20remedies_final.pdf

[3] John E. Kwoka, Jr., “Does Merger Control Work? A Retrospective on U.S. Enforcement Actions and Merger Outcomes,” 78 Antitrust L.J 619 (2013)

[4] http://www.oregonlive.com/silicon-forest/index.ssf/2013/08/comcast_cable_tv_rates_going_u.html

[5] http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2014/05/07/cables-forced-bundles-are-getting-fatter-but-no-one-is-watching-more-channels/

[6] http://www.oregonlive.com/silicon-forest/index.ssf/2013/08/comcast_cable_tv_rates_going_u.html

[7] http://documents.dps.ny.gov/public/Common/ViewDoc.aspx?DocRefId={C6D8225D-7E82-4756-A715-AF9CC6CB76A5}

[8] https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2014/06/comcast-raises-your-electric-bill-by-turning-router-into-a-public-hotspot/

[9]https://techcrunch.com/2014/05/14/comcast-wants-to-put-data-caps-on-all-customers-within-5-years/

[10] https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2014/02/comcast-no-promise-that-prices-will-go-down-or-even-increase-less-rapidly/

Stop the Cap! completed and today filed a formal submission with the Federal Communications Commission opposing the merger of Time Warner Cable and Comcast.

We joined tens of thousands of filers — mostly consumers — strongly opposed to the merger on the grounds it is not in the public interest.

Earlier today, Consumers Union filed its petition with more than 20,000 signatures of ordinary Americans across the United States who want nothing to do with Comcast.

Back here in New York, Comcast this afternoon filed a response with the Public Service Commission regarding our (and other) submissions opposed to the merger. We will be analyzing and rebutting their response straight away. Comcast went all-out name-dropping people and groups (many with direct, usually undisclosed financial ties to Comcast) to sell New York regulators the theory ‘the groups and people who matter’ are in favor of their merger while those opposed are mostly out-of-state rabble or unsubstantial individuals of few words.

“Given these many concrete benefits, and the lack of any harm to competition or consumers, it should come as no surprise that the overwhelming majority of the substantive comments (approximately 110 out of a total of about 140 substantive comments) filed in this proceeding support Commission approval of the transaction,” writes Comcast.

Comcast did not share their subjective standard of what constitutes “substantive” but a quick review of the groups cited in Comcast’s response show some substantive was involved – a check from Comcast either recently or in the past. Our view is that it doesn’t take more than a sentence to express extreme displeasure about Comcast taking over Time Warner Cable, and those views should matter just as much as a virtual Hallmark card from a group or politician that used a Comcast-provided “template” with a detachable check at the bottom.

Our favorite was Comcast’s highly defensive ‘hey New York PSC, it’s none of your business that Comcast is testing usage caps and you cannot use it against us’:

The Writers Guild of America, West, Inc. (“WGAW”), Zephyr Teachout and Tim Wu, and Stop the Cap! argue that Comcast will extend data caps and usage-based pricing to New York to impose restraints on online content and drive up consumer costs.

This broadband-related claim is irrelevant to this proceeding and beyond the Commission’s jurisdiction. Indeed, the FCC expressly approved of usage-based billing in its 2010 Open Internet Order and is again examining the issue in the pending Open Internet rulemaking.

In other words, whether data caps are appropriate is a matter of federal regulatory concern, not one that relates to this proceeding or that is even transaction specific (since nothing precludes TWC from adopting caps at any time, as it has in the past).

So regardless of whether data caps are in the public interest or not, New York should not be allowed to weigh in because former FCC chairman Julius Genachowski said usage based billing could be an innovative way to bill for broadband.

In reality, New York can decide for itself what is in the best interests of its residents, and Time Warner Cable determined what was best after a two-week firestorm in 2009 that taught them compulsory usage caps were a really bad idea. But Comcast isn’t terribly interested in the views of the unsubstantive masses — which is comparable to their attitude toward customers, so no change there. It’s just a free preview weekend of what we all have in store if Comcast takes over.

Out: Hesse

Sprint CEO Dan Hesse has left the building. He won’t be the last.

Hesse was appointed to lead Sprint in December 2007 after the catastrophic mess created when Sprint and Nextel merged. Now he’s gone because of his catastrophic failure to convince regulators a merger with T-Mobile USA made sense.

Brightstar Corporation CEO Marcelo Claure, appointed to Sprint’s board of directors by Softbank Mobile CEO Masayoshi Son earlier this year, is now in charge, and his commitment to save Sprint isn’t much different from what Hesse promised almost seven years earlier.

“The strategy is simple,” Mr. Claure said in an interview Monday. “We have to get back in the game.”

On a company-wide town hall call on Thursday, Claure outlined his three priorities: cut prices, improve the network, and decrease operational costs. Priority number one, price reductions, which have already started.

In: Claure

Claure blasted Sprint’s current pricing models, which he admitted were out of line considering how bad Sprint’s network is these days. He also trashed Sprint’s upgrade efforts, calling the “rip and replace” method of upgrading individual cell sites too slow, admitted social media networks were loaded with negative comments about Sprint’s performance, and that absolutely nobody understood the company’s most recent marketing attempt – a talking hamster selling Sprint’s Framily plan.

“We’re going to change our plans to make sure they are simple and attractive and make sure every customer in America thinks twice about signing up to a competitor,” he said. “When you have a great network, you don’t have to compete on price. When your network is behind, unfortunately you have to compete on value and price.”

Sprint’s network isn’t just behind, it’s downright prehistoric in places. Its 3G network borders on unusable in large cities, WiMAX is on life support, and Sprint’s 4G LTE network expansion is taking so long, by the time it is finished, LTE might be considered passé.  Hesse had avoided a more aggressive timetable to protect Sprint’s share price from the precipitous drop that would come from an upgrade spending spree.

Those days are over.

Claure warned the changes for Sprint would not just include price cuts and upgrades. It will also mean major job cuts, although Claure would not specify exactly how many Sprint employees were headed for the unemployment office. Unlimited data may also be headed for the door – Claure would not commit to retaining the unlimited use wireless data plans Sprint has been known for under Hesse’s leadership. Kansas City officials are also worried Sprint’s new executive team wants to move the company headquarters west, likely to California.

Masayoshi Son and Claure both agree that U.S. regulators were no fans of Sprint either — sending clear and unambiguous warnings that continued efforts to merge Sprint with T-Mobile USA were futile. So a proposed merger between the two companies is off. T-Mobile USA CEO John Legere wasted no time piling on, advising Sprint customers in tweets to #SprintLikeHell to another wireless carrier (preferably his).

Some predictable grumbling from Wall Street has also been heard over Claure’s plans to disrupt the comfortable profits earned by American wireless companies.

“Expect capital spending to rise,” says analyst firm Moffett Nathanson in a research note. “They will also have to cut their service prices, which are simply are too high relative to competitors.”

With a dramatic cut in prices, Sprint’s financials will look “ugly” in the coming quarters.

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Here is Why Sprint Stopped Talks With T-Mobile 8-6-14.flv[/flv]

Sprint ended talks to acquire T-Mobile US a person with knowledge of the matter said, as regulatory concerns outweighed the potential benefits of combining the third- and fourth-largest U.S. wireless carries. Bloomberg’s Alex Sherman reports on “Market Makers.” (4:07)

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Sprint Faces Tough Road Running Business 8-6-14.flv[/flv]

Craig Moffett, founder of MoffettNathanson LLC, talks about reports of Sprint Corp.’s decision to end talks to acquire T-Mobile US Inc. due to regulatory concerns. Moffett speaks with Tom Keene and Brendan Greeley on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance.” (3:25)

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Sprints Dropped T-Mobile Bid Adds Options Ergen 8-7-14.flv[/flv]

Dish Network Chairman Charlie Ergen said Sprint’s decision to drop its bid for T-Mobile US has opened up more options for his satellite-TV carrier as it looks for ways to expand into the wireless business. Alex Sherman reports on “In The Loop.” (4:01)

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Sprint CEO Right Man for Right Company 8-11-14.flv[/flv]

Patterson Advisory Group Chairman and CEO Jim Patterson and Bloomberg Intelligence Telecom Analyst John Butler discuss challenges facing Sprint’s new CEO Marcelo Claure. Patterson and Butler speak on “In The Loop.” (5:47)

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Is Sprints New CEO up to the Challenges He Faces 8-11-14.flv[/flv]

Bill Ho, principal analyst at 556 Ventures, and Bloomberg Intelligence’s John Butler discuss expectations for Sprint’s new Chief Executive Officer Marcello Claure and look at the challenges he faces as the head of the nation’s number three wireless company. They speak on “Market Makers.” (6:56)