Goldman Sachs has reviewed the implications of Frontier Communications assuming control of millions of Verizon landline customers, and promptly downgraded their stock to a Neutral rating, telling investors the upcoming consolidation will hasten eroding revenues at Frontier.

“Consolidation of the underperforming acquired assets causes an immediate step-up in revenue erosion for FTR (-6.3% in 2010). In addition, the combined company’s initial EBITDA margins will be significantly below those of legacy FTR (pro forma of 48.0% in 2010, 470 bp below legacy FTR).”

Analysts added, “We expect longer term EBITDA margins of 50%-plus, driven by synergy realization (we forecast $450 mn/year by 2013), and moderating revenue declines, as FTR is able to bring a more localized focus to assets that were not a primary focus inside of a much larger Verizon entity. We forecast 2011/2012 FCF of $950 mn/$921 mn, as synergies and margin expansion only partially offset continued (but moderating) revenue erosion.”

In English, that means Frontier will benefit from its larger customer base in reducing expenses on a per-customer basis, and could become a big enough player to realize some benefits from rolling out services to a larger number of customers nationwide, but those benefits will be tempered by the ongoing loss of revenue as customers dump Frontier landlines for wireless and, where available, switch to a cable modem product to get better speeds and consistent service that Frontier DSL does not provide.  Losing that 5 GB monthly usage allowance won’t hurt either.

Frontier is betting a good deal of the company on expanding broadband service in its largely rural service areas, where many Americans are still stuck relying on dial-up or satellite fraudband, the service that promises a broadband experience but doesn’t come close to actually delivering one.

As long as Frontier doesn’t face competition in its markets, it can deliver 1-3 Mbps DSL service for up to $50 a month and bank those profits as a firewall against ongoing loss of landline revenue.  But if new players arrive, such as LTE wireless, WiMax, cable, or municipal fiber, Frontier’s business plan could go awry in a hurry.

Frontier also continues to pin its hopes on its enormous payout of dividends — sometimes exceeding 12 percent.  The stock is currently the best dividend payer in the S&P 500.  With dependable dividends and the ability to throw back free cash to investors, shareholders can’t ask for anything more.  In the first quarter alone, free cash flow amounted to $152 million and the company paid a dividend to shareholders representing 52 percent of that amount.  That’s $152 million Frontier won’t be spending to upgrade their service or have on hand to pay down debt.

For independent legacy landline providers like Frontier, reducing that dividend could spell disaster for the company’s stock price. Even investors understand this, which is why these kinds of cautionary notes are often attached to coverage about the company:

A cautionary note: telecoms companies with large fixed line exposure generally yield high dividends presently because investors do not believe their revenues and income levels are sustainable as people continue to substitute mobile phones for fixed lines.

While your cable and broadband bill increased in 2010, so did the net worth of some of Time Warner Cable’s top executives, compensated in part with shares of company stock.

Chairman, President & CEO Glenn Britt sold 50,000 shares of TWC stock on 02/26/2010 at the average price of $46.44 a share.  While he ponders whether or not to slap limits on your Road Runner broadband service, he can run his fingers through a cool $2,322,000 from this stock sale alone. If you want your child to score big time in investments in the future, then it might wise to look into information such as junior stocks and shares ISA.

Chief Operating Officer Landel C. Hobbs, the man that said Time Warner Cable needed the money earned from Internet Overcharging to afford costly network upgrades, did better than Britt last week when he sold 57,000 shares at an average price of $54.58 a share.  Perhaps chipping in some of that $3,111,160 in extra compensation would help things along.

It doesn’t just stop there:

• Senior EVP & CFO Robert D Marcus sold 28,504 shares of TWC stock on 05/27/2010 at the average price of $54.21 — $1,545,201.84
• TWC Ventures Carl Uj Rossetti sold 13,154 shares of TWC stock on 05/27/2010 at the average price of $54.40 — $715,577.60
• EVP & Chief Technology Officer Michael L Lajoie sold 9,169 shares of TWC stock on 05/03/2010 at the average price of $56.37 — $516,856.53
• EVP & Chief Strategy Officer Peter C Stern sold 3,676 shares of TWC stock on 04/26/2010 at the average price of $55 — $202,180
• EVP & Chief Strategy Officer Peter C Stern sold 1,483 shares of TWC stock on 04/05/2010 at the average price of $53.32 — $79,073.56
• EVP, General Counsel & Secretary Marc Lawrence-Apfelbaum sold 1,394 shares of TWC stock on 04/05/2010 at the average price of $53.32 — $74,328.08

In total, for just the months of April and May and the first week of June, seven executives have extracted more than $8.5 million dollars for themselves.

You got a rate increase to help make all that possible.

Spangler

While the mainstream media and some of AT&T’s apologists tell consumers AT&T’s 2 GB monthly usage limit will impact only a handful of “abusers,” the cable trade press is telling its readers the industry insider’s secret — consumers will blow right through those caps.

Todd Spangler, who is an Internet Overcharging advocate and columnist for Multichannel News, a cable industry trade magazine, writes the implications of AT&T’s usage cap couldn’t be clearer to him.

The new iPhone 4, introduced yesterday to the predictable media crush, provides 10 hours of battery life for playing video, among other features.

But now that AT&T has eliminated its all-you-can-eat plan for smartphones, you will blow through the maximum 3G usage for the entry-level 200 MB plan if you watched just 4 minutes of streaming video per day. That would include commercials.

Even AT&T’s more generous DataPro 2-GB plan would allow just 35 minutes per day of streaming video (assuming you used your iPhone for nothing else), according to the carrier’s online data calculator.

Like a stopped watch, at least he’s right twice a day.

Spangler celebrates the opportunity AT&T’s overcharging scheme provides the cable industry to “grease the skids” for data caps and overpriced consumption billing on cable modem service.

In Spangler’s “Cable companies pay my salary”-world-view, it wasn’t that Time Warner Cable did the wrong thing when it tried to triple broadband pricing — to $150 a month — for the exact same level of service customers previously enjoyed.  It was all about its execution.

Spangler characterizes Time Warner Cable CEO Glenn Britt as a victim, burned over the company’s failed overcharging experiment in 2009.  When one plays with matches, is it any surprise there are consequences?

Consumers will respond to more overcharging schemes the same way they did a year before — with overwhelming condemnation and opposition.  It’s hard to convince consumers to pay a higher price for limits on usage while telling shareholders you’ve invested less to expand your network, charged more to access it, all while the costs to provide the service have dropped dramatically.  Consumers call that out for what it is: greed.

Make no mistake, consumers hate usage caps and overpriced consumption billing and Time Warner Cable has no justification to introduce either.

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC ATT Cuts Unlimited Data 6-2-10.flv[/flv]

Normally business-friendly CNBC covers the introduction of the 2 GB usage cap on AT&T smartphone data usage.  Then the CNBC anchor got skeptical about AT&T’s claims this was good news for consumers, admitting she hates overcharging schemes that deliver a surprise on the bill at the end of the month.  Lance Ulanoff, editor of PC Magazine expressed some doubts himself.  (8 minutes)

Stop the Cap! reader Bones sends word the FCC needs volunteers to help keep America’s broadband providers honest about their speed claims.  But the agency warns heavily usage capped consumers they probably shouldn’t apply, and anyone consuming over 30 GB per month is disqualified.

The FCC SamKnows Broadband Community aims to gather and report statistical data on the performance of America’s broadband providers.  Thus far, most of the earlier speed results being studied by public officials come from data aggregated from voluntary visits to speed test websites.  But the data is subject to considerable variation depending on the speed test site chosen, traffic and capacity issues that only impact the route to the test site, and what else a consumer may doing with their connection during the test.  Many also conduct speed tests when a technical problem is apparent, using the speed test site to verify their suspicions.

The FCC will send 10,000 volunteers a free router that will hook up to one’s broadband connection and quietly test it several times daily.  Comprehensive measurements to be taken include latency, packet loss, DNS query times and failures, web page loading times, as well as the obligatory suite of speed tests.  The testing is done in the background and the results are uploaded to SamKnows for review.  The FCC can use the data from all of the volunteers to identify the true performance of national and regional Internet Service Providers.  Do their speed claims actually match reality?  Do they suffer from congestion problems and at what times of day?

One group of ISPs the agency will have trouble measuring are those that heavily limit their customers’ use.  In fact, the Test My ISP website warns off customers with low data caps because the project is expected to send and receive about 4 gigabytes of data in full over the course of each month. While the program designers felt that much data was so insignificant it would not create a problem, some greedy ISPs out there beg to differ.  With some providers offering usage allowances at 5 or fewer gigabytes per month, the FCC quickly learned it doesn’t want to be responsible for spiking consumer broadband bills with any overlimit fees.

As a result, they’ve asked those usage capped consumers to think twice about applying for the traditional testing program:

Our units download approximately 2GB per month and upload around 2GB. If you’re on a product with a low usage cap then we’d advise against signing up, or at least informing us beforehand so that we can apply a different testing profile.

The FCC also isn’t interested in sending test units to customers they designate as “heavy downloaders”:

We’d classify anything above 30GB per month as being too heavy for us to gather useful results.

With the increasing use of multimedia content and other high bandwidth applications being released to the Internet masses, we beg to differ with the arbitrary definition that 30 GB constitutes “heavy downloading.”  We understand the agency doesn’t want other online usage to create an issue for the accuracy of its speed tests, but they should take better care with their language.  One could use a file backup service and easily consume more then 30 GB uploading and never download more than a gigabyte.

A screenshot of the types of data SamKnows will be collecting and measuring (click to enlarge)

Other restrictions:

• You have a fixed line broadband Internet connection to your residence.  This is not for WISPs, mobile broadband, or other wireless broadband services.
• You use a standalone device to connect to your broadband service – i.e not a USB ADSL modem.
• You have a stable broadband connection (i.e. it doesn’t disconnect frequently). Note that this is just referring to the connection – not the speed.
• You have a spare power socket near your existing router (or wherever you plan to connect the unit. Keep in mind that a network cable must run between the unit and your router though! We supply a 1m cable).
• You need to be on one of the ISPs that we’re measuring.
• You are not an employee or a family member of an employee of one of the ISPs being monitored.

Also, you must agree to the following:

• Not to unplug the unit or your ISP’s router unless I’m away for an extended period of time.
• Not attempt to reverse engineer or alter the unit.
• To notify Samknows if and when I choose to change ISPs.
• To return the unit to Samknows should I no longer wish to be involved (Samknows to pay reasonable postage costs).
• To connect the unit in the way described in the documentation.
• To keep Samknows updated with valid contact details (i.e. email and postal address).

SamKnows is a British company hired by the FCC to conduct the speed test project.  SamKnows is already familiar to British broadband consumers for its comprehensive broadband availability checker showing all of the broadband choices available based on the address where service is to be installed.

The company also reports on broadband news, mostly impacting Europe.

And before the paranoid start suggesting this is Obama’s Internet Spy Box, SamKnows offers this:

However, the unit simply acts as a standard switch or standard router and does not look at any of the packets flowing across your network. It only monitors traffic volumes for the purposes of deciding when to run (or not to run!) the tests and to measure consumption.

Testing information uploaded from the unit to our servers contains no information about you whatsoever. Furthermore, all such communications are encrypted, ensuring that results cannot be tampered with en-route.

Your individual unit’s test results will be available to you alone. Your unit’s results will also be aggregated with others from the same ISP to form a larger average set of results that can be viewed publicly.

We have absolutely no intention of doing anything that may adversely affect your privacy or security.

[flv width=”512″ height=”308″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/ITN News Ofcom report says broadband is not up to speed 7-28-09.flv[/flv]

The implications for the FCC’s national speed test program could mimic Great Britain’s, where providers were held to account for wide variations between speeds promised and those actually delivered.  Meaningful broadband reform in the States could include a requirement that providers’ marketing claims be provable, compelling at least some to perform competitive upgrades instead of delivering broken promises.  This ITN News report from last summer illustrates what happened when UK provider speed claims were put to the test.  (3 minutes)

unlimited

Main Entry: un·lim·it·ed
Pronunciation: \-ˈli-mə-təd\
Function: adjective

1 : lacking any controls : unrestricted <unlimited access>
2 : boundless, infinite <unlimited possibilities>
3 : not bounded by exceptions : undefined <the unlimited and unconditional surrender of the enemy — Sir Winston Churchill>

An Alaskan Internet service provider is baffling its broadband customers with a blizzard of BS regarding just how unlimited its “unlimited” service plans really are.

A Stop the Cap! reader in The Last Frontier drops us a note to alert us of yet another provider trying to pull a fast one on its customers.

GCI markets cable-TV, telephone and broadband service in larger communities across many parts of the state.  Its broadband service, dubbed “Xtreme,” offer DSL-like speeds at a significant price premium over what users in the lower 48 pay for Internet access.

Since 2007, our reader writes, GCI offered customers a deal.  In return for letting the company provide all of your telecommunications needs — cable, phone, and Internet, GCI would provide you with unlimited broadband service.  The triple-play package was sold for at least $80 a month, and many customers agreed to the bundled route to avoid GCI’s restrictive, data-capped plans sold to its broadband-only customers.

GCI is now reneging on its end of the deal thanks to a creative redefinition of the word “unlimited.”  For the convenience of those who may be English-challenged, Stop the Cap! has provided the Merriam-Webster definition of the word “unlimited” above, which hasn’t changed much since its first use in the 15th century.

Broadband providers like GCI think they are clever enough to change all that.

Much to the chagrin of GCI’s bundled customers, the company unfairly slapped a “Fair Access Policy” on all of its unlimited customers on April 1st.  Customers started receiving usage warnings this spring, which came as quite a surprise for an “unlimited” service plan.  But the company insists it hasn’t limited its “unlimited” plans at all:

GCI offers some cable modem Internet service plans with “unlimited downloads”, meaning GCI does not bill customers additional fees for usage in a given month.

Actually, that isn’t the meaning of “unlimited” at all, no matter how much the company wishes it was.  Again, see the definition above.

In fact, even using GCI’s own definition, nonsensical as it is, it isn’t reality-based either.

Customers who exceed the arbitrary limits GCI determines as “fair,” could be subjected to higher pricing.  GCI’s website currently lists the overlimit fee starting at an impenetrable $0.005 per megabyte, which sounds pretty low until you realize it’s $5.00 per gigabyte, which is significantly higher than what most other naughty cappers charge.  On slower speed plans, GCI’s overlimit fee is a whopping $0.03 per megabyte — $30 per gigabyte.

What happens when you overuse your GCI unlimited Internet?  GCI will contact you to discuss your account and then ask you to agree to either reduce usage or pay additional fees for usage in a given month.

GCI loves to make its limits look mighty big by representing them in megabytes instead of the more commonly used gigabyte measurement.  They also include the usual comparisons: over 10,000 web pages, 250,000 e-mails, 1,000 pictures, etc.  On the lower speed plans, GCI avoids defining the far-smaller allowances for higher bandwidth services like near-DVD HD video streaming some Alaskan families may want to use during those cold and dark Alaskan winter evenings.

Here are the limits GCI assigns to its “unlimited” service plans:

That’s usage ranging from 40-100 gigabytes.  What this illustrates yet again is that Internet Overcharging schemes are ridiculously arbitrary.  A provider in rural Alaska defines “fair” use of its slowest speed “unlimited” broadband tier (3 Mbps/512 Kbps for $45 a month) at 40 gigabytes.  Meanwhile, Frontier Communications considers it fair to define its DSL service usage allowance at just 5 gigabytes per month.  Comcast says 250 gigabytes a month is fair.  AT&T’s wireless smartphone data plan now carries a 2 gigabyte limit AT&T claims is about right.

As is also commonly the case among Internet Overchargers, any unused allowances do not “roll over” to the next month.

GCI considers anyone exceeding these limits engaged in continuous high-volume data transfers, extensive use of streaming video and peer-to-peer file sharing programs, or using an unsecured wireless signal everyone in the neighborhood has hopped on to use.  But just backing up your family computer through an online backup service over a month could easily put you over these limits.  If a “mutually agreed on” solution cannot be reached to either limit your use or increase your price, GCI will show you the door.

Essentially, GCI hobbles its broadband service plans by imposing limits on services that could challenge some of its other products.  For standalone broadband customers, GCI builds in plenty of protection against customers potentially using its Internet service to bypass its cable and phone offerings, despite some recent speed and usage allowance increases.  How much online viewing will you feel safe doing on some of these Internet service plans:

Monthly service fees

Our reader in Alaska thinks the usage limits are unjustified considering GCI’s capacity, and its prices:

GCI has well over 600 Gigabits of capacity across two undersea fiber optic cables.
Since 2007, the only way to get an unlimited download option for the company’s various speed tiers was through its bundled packages.  With the new limit on “unlimited” downloads, GCI fraudulently misrepresents its service to Alaskans.

GCI is the poster child for the cable industry’s push for metered billing. I think you’re well aware that cable companies view metered billing as an anti-competitive solution to fend off emerging competition from online content providers like Hulu and Netflix Online. Time Warner backed down when confronted with the possibility of regulation for the entire industry. They will however try again if companies like GCI continue to have success over a long term. This is why it’s imperative that groups like Stop the Cap! fight beyond your region and get regulation passed to bar forced bundling and data transfer limits entirely. Content providers (video services) should be separate entities from network providers (ISPs). It’s the only way to keep rates low and businesses competitive. Thank you for keeping up the good fight.