Shammo

Verizon’s vision of broadband economics depends on the technology used to provide the service, according to some insights shared by the company’s chief financial officer at yesterday’s Deutsche Bank Access Media, Internet & Telecom Conference.

Fran Shammo outlined two strategies the company is using to profit from its broadband services. For wireless, Verizon has “flipped the model” from the traditional voice plan that starts with a bucket of voice minutes towards monetizing broadband usage instead. Today, customers buy plans that focus on anticipated data usage with unlimited voice and texting thrown in. But marketing broadband on Verizon’s fiber optic FiOS network is markedly different because the company is focused on speed over consumption.

“We are now shifting into concentrating on the broadband piece of that product, and the speed that the fiber to the home can give you we believe can’t be matched with anyone,” Shammo told an audience primarily made up of Wall Street analysts and investors. “We have a superior product.”

Shammo explained Verizon intends to “monetize speeds” that fiber broadband is capable of providing. That is important because Verizon FiOS now represents 70 percent of Verizon’s wired business, as traditional landline revenue continues to decline.

That is welcome news to broadband advocates that prefer current pricing models based on broadband speeds, not usage. Verizon FiOS intends to capitalize on its superior speed to differentiate itself from the cable competition, especially when some of those competitors are slapping usage limits on their customers.

Another important new revenue source for Verizon comes from switching legacy DSL users to FiOS technology.

In 2012, Verizon commenced its copper-to-fiber migration in FiOS areas. At least 200,000 homes formerly served by copper-based DSL were transitioned to fiber. In 2013, Verizon plans to migrate another 300,000 customers. When customers are switched to the fiber network, their former DSL speeds remain the same, but now Verizon’s marketing department has an opportunity to target upgrade offers for faster speeds.

“We give them the choice to start upgrading that speed [to] 15, 25, or 50Mbps,” Shammo reports. “What we are seeing is people are willing to pay for that additional speed, so we can monetize that fiber network more.”

However, Shammo reiterated that beyond what Verizon has already committed to in FiOS agreements with local municipalities, Verizon plans no additional expansion of FiOS in 2013.

The foundation for future profits come from data usage.

Unintended Consequences of Share Everything: Customers do an end run around Verizon’s “device fee.”

The conference also provided new insights into Verizon’s Share Everything wireless plans and the company’s other strategies.

Shammo admitted customers have done an end run around the “device fee” for multiple add-on devices.

Verizon expected mobile wireless-enabled tablet sales would increase as the cost to add a tablet to a Verizon Wireless account no longer required a separate data plan. But Verizon’s “device fee,” charged for each device connected to a Share Everything plan, has backfired. Customers are instead adopting Verizon’s “Mi-Fi” wireless hotspot device or other tethering solutions. Customers can then connect up to five Wi-Fi enabled devices through the hotspot and bypass paying multiple device fees that range from $5-20 per device.

Living Off the Revenue from a 3G Network Verizon Has Stopped Expanding, Improving

Shammo also noted Verizon has stopped further investments in its 3G wireless network.

“We are not investing any more capital in that network other than to keep it up and running, so no more coverage [expansion] capital, no more capacity [expansion] capital,” Shammo said. “If I can keep that network up and running that just generates more [revenue] for us.”

Verizon plans to keep a moratorium on further expansion of its fiber to the home service except in areas where it has existing agreements to deliver service.

Verizon’s Plans to Reduce Device Subsidies, Discounts

Customers have grown to expect a free or low-cost upgrade to a new smartphone every two years. But wireless companies find the costs of fronting device subsidies troubling because it affects the short-term bottom line. As wireless providers trim discounts, tighten upgrade policies, raise prices, and introduce new upgrade and activation fees, the $200-400 device subsidy recouped over the life of a two-year service contract remains a fat target for pruning.

But Verizon and other cell phone companies do not want to cut plan prices that are now inflated by $10-15 a month to cover paying back phone subsidies. The best of both worlds: eliminating device upgrade discounts –and– keeping prices the same for wireless service, banking the extra revenue as profit.

Verizon’s current solution is a middle-ground approach that gradually reduces device subsidies while hoping increased competition among device manufacturers will lower retail prices. For the consumer, that means prices will remain generally the same. But for Verizon, it means higher revenue from paying out lower subsidies while being able to maintain current pricing.

“I am a believer that over the next two to three years subsidies will start to decrease just because of the ecosystem,” said Shammo.

Verizon’s conversion to LTE means the day of a pure LTE-only smartphone is not far off. It will not include added-cost chips to support legacy technology, particularly older data networks and CDMA.

Wall Street Pressures Verizon to Talk Customers into Less-Costly (Anything but an iPhone) Smartphones

Brett Feldman, an analyst at Deutsche Bank who moderated the question and answer session with Shammo pointedly noted the Apple iPhone is the most-costly phone to subsidize.

“Are there things you can do with your sales force where you would proactively incentivize them to maybe sell different devices,” asked Feldman.

“It is critical that we don’t do that,” Shammo explained. “What is more important for us is a customer walks out with a phone that they will be happy with and not return under our 30-day guarantee. Because the worst thing that can happen for us is for me to incent a salesperson to get you into a phone thinking you are going to like and in three days you come back because you don’t. Now I’ve just subsidized two smartphones because that phone you used I can’t resell as a new phone.”

Esteves

Time Warner Cable is spending less to maintain and improve services for residential customers even as broadband usage grew 40-50 percent, redirecting spending on its business services division instead.

Irene Esteves, chief financial officer of Time Warner Cable, told attendees at Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media & Telecom Conference that the growth in the company’s capital spending is associated with serving business, not residential customers.

Esteves reported that spending on residential services was actually down slightly in the last year. The business services division used its increased capital to wire 100,000 office buildings and provisioned 1,900 cell towers with backhaul service last year.

But despite decreasing costs, Time Warner Cable expects to continue increasing broadband prices, primarily because it can.

“What we have found is […] as customers use it more, value it more, we can then price it more,” said Esteves. “And we think that’s a terrific dynamic for the market for quite a bit of time.”

Powering usage growth more than anything else is online video.

“If we look at peak volume, which is really what drives our capacity planning, 66% of that increase comes from streaming video,” notes Esteves. “Again, the more they use it, the more they love it, the more important we become to them as a service provider. So we’re continuing to watch that usage pattern and cheering them on.”

For traditional television viewing, Time Warner’s march to digital will also carry on, but it will happen slowly.

Time Warner Cable has chosen a gradual transition to IP video for cable television service. Subscribers can expect about a dozen channels per year to be removed from analog service until the cable system offers a completely digital television package. In Maine and New York City, that digital transition is already complete.

“We’re taking a more measured approach over a 5-year time period,” said Esteves. “We’re taking [away] analog channels in the 10 to 12 per year kind of measure, which is less disruptive to our customers and less capital-intensive.”

That kind of transition, coupled with annual rate increases, could potentially alienate customers, but Time Warner has retrained its retention specialists to assuage customers headed for the door.

“With the increasing promotional activity in the marketplace, we have more and more of our customers on promotion and it’s imperative that when the [promotion expires], we’re being very thoughtful about who rolls off to what, when,” said Esteves. “We’re training specialists to talk to customers, listen to them, find out the reasons for potentially leaving and recapturing those.”

But the industry is also under pressure from Wall Street to cut promotional activity and stop discounting service excessively, because it gets customers used to a lower price.

“If you think about the promotional prices in the marketplace, that really drives people to price shop and that just increases the transactions and the turmoil in the industry, which increases everyone’s cost and reduces everyone’s profitability,” Esteves said. “So the real conundrum for the entire industry is how do we each build on our retention rather than build on the promotional side in order to keep our customers and become more profitable.”

One of the side benefits of Google getting into the broadband provider business is learning first-hand what is reality and what represents provider spin and marketing nonsense used to justify high prices and usage limits.

As Google Fiber slowly spreads across Kansas City, the search engine giant is gaining first hand-experience in the broadband business. Google understands what cable operators endured in the 1980s and what Verizon was coping with until it pulled the plug on FiOS expansion: the upfront costs to build a new network that reaches individual subscribers’ homes and businesses can be very high. But once those networks are paid off, revenue opportunities explode, particularly when delivering broadband service.

Milo Medin, a former cable Internet entrepreneur and now vice president of access services at Google, presented a cogent explanation of why Google can make gigabit broadband an earner once construction costs are recouped. He demonstrated the economics of fiber broadband at a meeting of the San Jose chapter of the IEEE.

In addition to a long term investment in fiber, and the new business opportunities 1,000Mbps Internet provides, Google has learned from the mistakes other utilities have made and is trying to establish close working relationships with local governments to find ways to cut costs and bureaucracy.

In Kansas City, Google has placed staff in the same office with city zoning and permit officials. Working together in an informal public-private partnership to cut red tape, local inspectors have agreed to coordinate appointments with Google installers to reduce delays. That alone reportedly saves Google two percent in construction expenses.

“Governments have policies that can make it easy or hard, so I say, ‘if you make it hard for me, enjoy your Comcast,’” Medin said.

Internet traffic vs. costs

Medin notes broadband adoption and expansion in the United States is being artificially constrained by the marketplace, where wired providers are resting on their laurels.

More than a decade ago, people paid $40 a month for 4-5Mbps service, Medin noted.

Providers have kept the price the same, arguing they create more value for subscribers with ongoing speed increases.

But Medin notes overseas, prices are falling and speeds are increasing far faster than what we see in North America.

“Broadband in America is not advancing at nearly the pace it needs to be,” Medin argues. “Most of you have seen dramatic changes in wireless, but there’s never been a real step function increase in wired. That’s what’s needed for us to retain leadership in technology — and not having it is a big problem.”

Medin points to OECD statistics that show the cost per megabit per month in the U.S. is the sixth highest among 34 OECD nations. Only Mexico, Chile, Israel, New Zealand, and Greece pay higher prices. Every other OECD nation pays less.

By leveraging fiber optics, which every provider uses to some extent, costs plummet after network construction expenses are paid off. In fact, despite the explosion in network traffic, provider bandwidth costs remain largely flat even with growing use, which makes the introduction of Internet Overcharging schemes like usage caps and consumption-based pricing unjustified.

“Moving bits is fundamentally not expensive,” said Medin.

In 1998, when cable broadband first became available in many markets, the monthly price for the service was around $40 a month. Internet transit prices — the costs to transport data from your ISP to websites around the world averaged $1,200 per megabit that year. Today that cost has dropped below $4 per megabit and is forecast to drop to just $0.94 by 2015.

Data caps protect incumbent big studio and network content creators at the expense of independent producers and others challenging conventional entertainment business models.

That was the conclusion of several writers and producers at a communications policy forum hosted by Public Knowledge, a consumer group fighting for an open Internet.

A representative from the Writers Guild of America West noted that cord-cutting paid cable TV service has become real and measurable because consumers have a robust online viewing alternative for the first time. John Vezina, the Guild’s political director, noted how Americans watch television is transitioning towards on-demand viewing.

New types of short-form programming and commissioned series for online content providers like Netflix are also changing the video entertainment model.

Welch: It is about the money.

But a digital roadblock erected by some of the nation’s largest broadband providers is interfering with that viewing shift: the data cap.

Data caps place artificial limits on how much a customer can use their Internet connection without either being shut off or finding overlimit fees attached to their monthly bill. Critics contend usage caps and consumption billing discourage online viewing — one of the most bandwidth intensive applications on the Internet. With broadband providers like Time Warner Cable, AT&T, Verizon, and Comcast also in the business of selling television packages, cord-cutting can directly impact providers’ bottom lines.

Providers have traditionally claimed that usage limits are about preserving network resources and fairness to other customers. But Time Warner Cable admits they exist as a money-making scheme.

Rachel Welch, vice president of federal legislative affairs at Time Warner Cable, says the cable company is not worried about limiting data consumption. It considers monetizing that consumption more important.

“We want our customers to buy as much of the product as possible,” Welch told PC World. “The goal of companies is to make money.”

Time Warner now offers customers a choice of unlimited service or a $5 discount if customers keep their monthly usage under 5GB, but some worry that is only a prelude to introducing expanded usage limits on a larger number of customers in the future.

For many consumers already hard-pressed by high broadband bills, worrying about exceeding a data allowance and paying even more may keep viewers from watching too much content online.

For that reason, Vezina called data caps “anti-innovation.”

“It hurts consumers [and] it hurts creators who want to get as much out to the public in as many ways” as possible, he said.

Public Knowledge has become increasingly critical of data caps in the last two years. The organization has questioned how ISP’s decide what constitutes a ‘fair’ usage limit and criticized inaccurate usage meters that could potentially trigger penalties and overlimit fees.

General Motors announced Monday it was planning to introduce built-in 4G wireless connectivity from AT&T in OnStar-enabled vehicles starting with the 2015 model year, gradually ending a relationship GM has maintained with Verizon Wireless since 1996.

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The deal is part of AT&T’s aggressive expansion into the wireless connected-vehicle world and could enable streaming video and other bandwidth-intensive services not now supported by GM’s agreement with Verizon.

OnStar currently relies on Verizon’s CDMA digital network to provide a car phone and slow speed data network to share vehicle diagnostics and enable certain remote functions. Current vehicle owners can continue to use OnStar services delivered over Verizon’s wireless network. But starting in mid-2014, most new Chevrolet, Buick, GMC and Cadillac models will be equipped with AT&T 4G LTE service instead. In Canada, OnStar will continue to rely on Bell Mobility.

New GM vehicle owners receive one free year of OnStar’s basic service, which includes automatic collision notification, stolen vehicle and roadside breakdown assistance, remote door unlock, remote horn and light flashing to find a vehicle, remote vehicle diagnostics, and a built-in speakerphone that can be used to make or receive calls (after an initial trial, customers must buy additional minutes). Some newer GM models also allow OnStar staff to slow down a stolen vehicle and even disable it. After one year, the basic Safe & Sound package can be continued for $18.95 a month ($24.95 in Canada). Drivers that want to add turn-by-turn navigation pay $28.90 a month ($39.90 in Canada), which also includes all the basic features offered in the Safe & Sound package.

OnStar has traditionally only offered limited interactive data service with its telematics system, mostly powered through spoken voice commands. The new agreement with AT&T could mean your next GM vehicle will become a roving hotspot, powering smartphones, laptops, built-in televisions, and various in-car apps that need a 4G data connection to work well.

AT&T expects expansion into wireless in-car communications will be highly lucrative at a time when smartphone sales are starting to slow. There is no word on the cost for the AT&T-enabled version of OnStar, but prices will likely be higher than traditional OnStar service plans, and will vary depending on the amount of data consumed.

“We’re sitting on the greatest growth opportunity in history,” Ralph de la Vega, CEO of AT&T Mobility said in an interview with CNNMoney. “With Mobile Share, we don’t care so much anymore about what you’re doing on the network … but all those things like cars and home security are where the monetization opportunity is.”

In its latest annual Visual Networking Index, Cisco predicts by 2017 the average American will use a total of 6.2GB of data per month on various mobile devices. Last year, consumers used an average of 752MB. At current AT&T pricing without an unlimited data option, the average customer will pay at least $40 more per month in data use charges within four years.

AT&T’s rush into vehicle connectivity, home security, and wireless machine-to-machine communications will also place more burdens on AT&T’s network at the same time the company is complaining about spectrum shortages.

Ford Motor says GM’s OnStar system has one significant flaw: it lacks an upgrade path. GM vehicle owners are stuck with the technology that comes built-in with the car. Historically, that has been a problem. In the early 2000s, OnStar customers with older analog-only service lost access to OnStar completely when Verizon dismantled its analog wireless network. More recent GM vehicle owners are frustrated to find the newest OnStar features are only available to the most recent new buyers. Vehicles as little as 24 months old are still unable to use OnStar’s smartphone app, which enhances the value of OnStar for subscribers.

Ford says it will stick with its SYNC system, developed with Microsoft, which links the owner’s smartphone with the vehicle using Bluetooth. Users upgrading a phone can continue to use Ford SYNC by pairing the new phone with the in-car system, bringing along any new features like faster data connectivity.