Cord Cutting Freakout: Media Stocks Crash Over Fear of Fewer Paying Customers

Phillip Dampier August 6, 2015 Consumer News 7 Comments

ESPN Red Logo large“Must-have” ESPN is not as must-have as the pay television business once believed as the costly basic cable network reported more subscriber losses as consumers cut the cord.

Despite a claim from ESPN owner Walt Disney that the sports network is watched in 83 percent of U.S. cable households, the number of cable customers buying a television package that includes ESPN is in decline. Subscriber disinterest and the growing unaffordability of cable television are the two primary reasons even the “untouchable” cable networks are starting to see the effect of cord cutting.

ESPN is the most expensive basic cable channel, costing every pay television customer at least $6.61 a month in 2015 according to SNL Kagan estimates. That price increases by about 8% a year, needed to keep up with ever-increasing sports rights fees networks pay to televise events. With subscribers covering the bill, ESPN has been able to outbid traditional network television and other cable networks to win the rights to more prestigious events. But since broadcast networks now collect money from cable subscribers as well, bidding wars have erupted that have made sports teams and league organizations very rich, thanks to cable customers that pay for ESPN and other networks whether they watch them or not.

ESPN sports programming costs

ESPN sports programming costs

But those days may soon be over, as customers discover cheaper “skinny bundles” of cable television packages or sign up for online video services that avoid costly sports networks. That was not possible just a few years ago. ESPN’s contract mandates its network be available on the standard basic tier — no optional sports tiers allowed, if a cable system wishes to carry it. To collect even more from cable subscribers, ESPN also effectively forces cable systems to carry one or more of their ancillary networks, which include ESPN2, ESPN3, ESPN+, ESPN Latin America, ESPNews, ESPNU, ESPN Classic, ESPN Deportes, Longhorn Network, and the SEC Network. That puts even more money in ESPN’s pocket.

disneyThe network has been a safe bet for investors for years, at least until this week when the company lowered its expectations for cable operating income growth from 2013-2016. Instead of growth between 7-9 percent, ESPN is now predicting only 4-6 percent. Although some might see that as a modest adjustment, Wall Street didn’t think so and Disney shares tanked 8.4% Wednesday. That was nothing compared to what happened today.

“Media stocks are getting slaughtered,” Aaron Clark, a portfolio manager at GW&K Investment Management, which manages $25 billion in assets, told the Wall Street Journal. “It’s been the long-running fear that we would eventually see cord-cutting. Everyone thought it would be a slow-moving train wreck, but Disney’s comment woke people up.”

Viacom, Inc. dropped 12 percent after it reported declines in second-quarter profits and revenue, which investors blamed on cord-cutting. Disney fell another 2.5% today and 21st Century Fox lost 6% after lowering its expectations for full-year profit for fiscal 2016. Cord-cutting, again.

To say ESPN is important to Disney would be an understatement. At least 75% of Disney’s cable network revenue comes from ESPN and estimates suggest 25% of Disney’s entire operating income in 2015 comes from the sports cable network. As ESPN faces customer defections and pressure on revenue growth, their costs are still rising. Sports rights at ESPN rose by 13% in 2014 and 19% in 2015, according to MoffettNathanson. If ESPN continues to lose customers and is forced to become more conservative about future price increases, parent company Walt Disney will feel the heat.

Ookla Dumps Net Index in Favor of Misleading, Often Inaccurate “Speedtest Award”

When New is Not Improved

When New is Not Improved

It is disappointing to see a company priding itself on independently measuring America’s broadband performance throw accuracy to the wind and start handing out misleading awards for America’s top broadband providers that their own speed tests often disprove.

Municipal and independently owned Internet providers have relied on Ookla to prove to the world they can offer superior broadband service over what is on offer from the local cable and phone company. Net Index was a useful, independent resource to track broadband speeds and trends based on millions of consumer-run Internet speed and health tests. A provider claiming “up to 10Mbps” service could quickly and easily be verified as a truth-teller or teller of tall tales. As of today, that is no longer as easy to verify:

Ookla Net Index has been discontinued

Ookla is devoted to providing world-class products and services. Sometimes that means saying goodbye to old sites, like Net Index, and hello to new ones…

ookla

Those “new and improved” products include:

  • SPEEDTEST AWARDS: Provides insights to consumers on where to find the Fastest ISPs & Mobile Networks worldwide, based on data from millions of Speedtests taken in the first half of 2015;
  • SPEEDTEST INTELLIGENCE: Designed for enterprises, governments and analysts to understand worldwide internet performance, based on the millions of Speedtests run each day.

While there is nothing objectionable about handing out awards for good performance, it turns out only the nation’s biggest telecom companies need apply, because unless you are Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Cox, Charter, or Verizon, you are too small to matter.

fastest ispAmong those that do, Comcast’s Xfinity takes first prize:

Comcast XFINITY is the nation’s largest traditional cable operator and largest home ISP. It offers an extremely wide variety of technologies and speeds, peaking at a fiber-based “Extreme 505” tier. That service isn’t widely available, though; you’re more likely to see top speeds of 105Mbps or 150Mbps using traditional DOCSIS 3 cable technology.

Ookla explains away why better performing ISPs are not qualified for one of their awards:

For a given location – either nationwide or a given state or city – we aim to include only ISPs or mobile networks that provide service for a significant number of customers in that geographic area. So, while Google Fiber is the fastest broadband in states like Kansas or Missouri, they are not suitable to be included in the fastest ISPs nationwide because they only serve a very small portion of the United States. To be included in a given geographic area, an ISP or mobile network must meet a minimum threshold based on the number of unique devices testing each day over a six month period.

In other words, accuracy matters a lot less than coverage area. Ookla’s methodology is further invalidated on the local level by their own website.

The prominent first place national award given to Comcast for having the fastest Internet access could mislead you to believe they are the best provider. But Ookla’s own speed tests show that in states like Minnesota, Comcast only comes in third place. Inexplicably, America’s always-lowest rated cable operator — Mediacom, scores first. Charter comes in second. Ookla does not bother to rank municipal-owned broadband providers that outperform all the above.

Not consistently including public, municipal utility, or co-op broadband providers in states like North Carolina and Colorado does an even bigger disservice to anyone depending on Ookla for independent and accurate results. Many of those providers just don’t show up in Ookla’s listings.

In other cases, providers that offer commercial-only broadband make Ookla’s list while even faster providers that sell to consumers don’t. In Rochester, N.Y., Ookla gives first place among local providers to Sutherland Global Services, a provider of business process and technology management services — not a residential ISP. Greenlight Networks delivers gigabit fiber to the home service to select residents in the area and does not appear on Ookla’s list.

Ookla’s own results show the largest companies deliver uneven results across the country, which comes perilously close to invalidating the usefulness of a “national” award. The fact Ookla intentionally leaves out ISPs that can dramatically outperform the competition drives the final nail into the credibility coffin, rendering Ookla’s “new and improved” results meaningless and very misleading. In short, consumers might find using a Ouija board to choose their next ISP about as useful.

It appears the more meaningful data consumers need to make an informed choice has been shifted to Ookla’s premium “Speedtest Intelligence,” designed to provide the granularity stripped away from Net Index. Based on an inquiry form, it seems Ookla is now selling this information to private clients, leaving consumers stuck with Ookla’s overgeneralized “awards” and incomplete regional test results that exclude too many residential providers to be useful and accurate.

Verizon DSL: The Love is Gone – Rate Hikes, Availability Problems, Low Speeds

Sandra Hartman has been a Verizon DSL customer for more than 10 years. She doesn’t have much of a choice.

In her small town outside of Binghamton, N.Y., Verizon is her only option. Time Warner Cable doesn’t come close to providing service in this part of upstate New York and cell service is abominable, even with Verizon and AT&T.

“I live in an area just large enough to have given Verizon the justification to offer DSL, but 3Mbps service is about all we have ever been able to get, but it has been better than nothing,” Hartman tells Stop the Cap!

Hartman signed up for a package that included $19.99 DSL with her landline a decade ago, a price that went up $10 after the sign-up promotion ended but has remained stable for years.

“Then Verizon decided to raise the price without improving the service,” Hartman says.

In fact, the price hikes have been fast and furious lately, beginning last fall when Hartman received this notice Verizon was raising the price to $34.99 a month:

Verizon-logo

Dear Valued Verizon Customer,

We realize you have choices when it comes to choosing your Broadband provider, and would like to take this opportunity to say thank you for being a loyal customer and for choosing Verizon.

In order to continue to bring you quality service and product innovation, at times we need to raise our rates. Your monthly rate will increase by $5.00 and will be reflected on your bill within the next two months. This rate will remain in effect for one year. If you currently have any credits or discounts on your account, these will remain in effect until their original expiration date.

If you would like to review your account to see if you may qualify for additional savings or if you have any questions, please log on to verizon.com/myverizon or give us a call at 1.888.213.9932.

We value you as a customer and look forward to continuing to serve you.

Sincerely,
Your Verizon Team

“What choices?,” Hartman wondered. “We have no choice and after the rate increase, we’ve seen no improvement in the quality of the service or any evidence of Verizon’s ‘product innovation.’ It’s the same DSL service we’ve had for a decade — we’re just paying $60 more a year for the same thing.”

In Pennsylvania, Verizon is required by regulators to provide access to broadband to any customer that wants the service by the end of 2015. This map shows Verizon's service areas, 96% of which now have access to at least DSL service.

In the unusual case of Pennsylvania, Verizon is required by law to offer access to broadband to any customer that wants the service by the end of 2015. This map shows Verizon’s service areas in green, 96% of which now have access to at least DSL service. That same requirement is absent in most states.

To save money, Hartman downgraded her Verizon landline to the cheapest possible plan and switched to Voice over IP provider Ooma, which works over her DSL line. But Verizon is now back for more with another rate increase notice — this time looking for another $7 a month starting this fall, putting the price of 3Mbps DSL up to $41.99 before fees, surcharges, and taxes.

“I called Verizon and they told me rates are reviewed ‘for competitive reasons’ and reflect the cost of providing the service, which is apparently now up another $84 a year,” she said. “Verizon’s equipment, sitting in the elements on a phone pole or humming away in their phone office actually appreciates in value it seems. I wish my 10-year-old laptop was worth more today than the day I bought it, but my laptop wasn’t made by Verizon.”

Hartman complained to customer service the successive rate increases do not seem to be spent on any improvements. In fact, it seems Verizon is no longer accepting new DSL customers in her area.

“A real estate agent friend of mine told me selling homes in this town has gotten difficult because Verizon will simply not sell DSL to new customers here, claiming they have no capacity,” Hartman said. “If you can’t get DSL from Verizon, you don’t have broadband service, it’s as simple as that.”

DSL availability from Verizon is not just a problem for Hartman. Several central offices in upstate New York no longer accept new Verizon DSL customers, claiming the service is at capacity. Some customers in the Finger Lakes region keep DSL service year-round at their seasonal cottages, fearing if they suspend service for the winter they will not get it back next spring. Time Warner Cable offers service to many lakefront properties, but those who own cabins and homes away from the lakeshore usually cannot get cable service and depend on Verizon for service.

The Verizon DSL forum on DSL Reports has more examples of customers that discover their entire exchange is no longer qualified to get Verizon DSL. One such example is in Purcellville, Va., west of Washington, D.C., a quick drive to the Maryland and West Virginia borders.

“DSL suddenly has disappeared from my wire center entirely – regardless if your 10 feet from the CO or out of a remote terminal with a DSLAM,” wrote Zenit. “Even the industrial section of town which has its own fiber fed DSL equipped RT shows negative for service, and there are plenty of vacant units there.”

Similar stories were reported in communities like Pittsfield, Mass. and Netcong, N.J.

Customers have been able to push back against Verizon’s price increases, especially in competitive areas. Some customers are switched to lower cost bundled packages while others are given straight service credits that lower a customer’s bill. Customers need only ask Verizon for a better price and let them know you are shopping around for a better deal.

Comcast Eases Requirements to Qualify for Internet Essentials, Boosts Speed to 10/1Mbps

Phillip Dampier August 4, 2015 Broadband Speed, Comcast/Xfinity, Consumer News, Public Policy & Gov't Comments Off on Comcast Eases Requirements to Qualify for Internet Essentials, Boosts Speed to 10/1Mbps

internet essentialsAfter years of complaints that Comcast’s discount Internet program for the poor came with a byzantine application process and was too limited to attract enough qualifying customers, the cable company is making it easier to sign up.

Comcast today announced Internet Essentials was getting a back-to-school makeover, with a doubling of download speed (10/1Mbps) and a free Wi-Fi router for new and existing customers.

Comcast’s application procedure for the service has also been streamlined.

Cohen

Cohen

“Now, if a child attends a school where at least 50 percent of the students are eligible to participate in the National School Lunch Program, all student families in that school are automatically eligible for Internet Essentials,” David Cohen, Comcast’ executive vice president and chief diversity officer wrote in a blog post.

Internet Essentials offers discounted Internet access for $9.95 a month as well as budget-priced computer equipment priced below $150 and free training classes to use both.

But Comcast has still not changed two provisions that effectively lock many income-challenged residents out of its program:

  • Participants may not have any outstanding debt to Comcast less than a year old. Those with debt more than a year old may qualify, but will likely have to arrange a payment plan to pay off the debt;
  • Participants must not be current Comcast Internet subscribers and will have to cancel their current broadband service for at least 90 days before they can qualify for Internet Essentials.

The latter requirement is designed to protect Comcast from losing revenue earned from poor customers who manage to scrape together enough to pay for Comcast’s regular-priced Internet. Comcast has remained defensive about the limitations of its Internet Essentials program, offered as a condition for approval of its merger with NBCUniversal. Comcast publishes glowing testimonials about the merits of the project written by third party groups without disclosing Comcast financially supports most, if not all the groups providing the testimonials.

Qualified customers can apply online to get the process started. Current customers can also request and receive free delivery of their Wi-Fi router from the same website.

Comcast also announced it will be testing a pilot program offering discounted Internet service for low-income senior citizens, starting in Palm Beach County, Fla., with other trial cities to be announced later. Details about the senior program were not yet available. Appearing with Comcast to announce the program was a representative from the Urban League, which also receives extensive financial support from Comcast and supported its merger effort with Time Warner Cable.

Sprint Chairman Calls U.S. Wireless Networks “Very, Very Bad”

Masayoshi Son

Masayoshi Son

Sprint, for perhaps the 5th time in three years, is promising a major network turnaround in the near future that will boost their network’s performance and potentially restore the wireless provider to third place in the U.S. wireless market.

Masayoshi Son, who serves as both the CEO of Japanese carrier SoftBank and chairman of Sprint proved defensive about Sprint’s performance, which recently dropped to America’s fourth largest carrier after trading places with T-Mobile, despite posting improved financial results for the quarter.

Once again, Son told investors the state of America’s wireless network coverage was downright lousy.

“When I come to the [United] States, this network is not something you should be proud of,” Son said on a Sprint conference call with analysts. “It’s very, very bad.”

John Legere, the outspoken CEO of T-Mobile, took to Twitter to berate his smaller competitor.

“Does that make Sprint’s network ‘VERY, very, very bad’ or just completely terrible,” Legere wrote. “It’s easy to boast about your network in Japan, @masason. That’s 146k square miles, or basically most of California. #notthathard ;),” he added.

sprint all inSon has been relatively quiet since failing to inspire regulators to allow him to merge Sprint and T-Mobile into a single company to help both compete more effectively against giants AT&T and Verizon Wireless. After promising to invest vast sums to improve Sprint’s relatively poor performing network and coverage area, Son seemed to disappear and Sprint started losing more customers than it could add. Some have expressed frustration about Sprint’s seemingly endless promises a network turnaround was just around the corner, but never seemed to actually materialize. Many have since left for T-Mobile, which added 2.1 million new customers this year.

Although this quarter may signal Sprint is turning things around by adding 675,000 net new customers, analysts question whether Sprint’s drop to fourth place and the amount of spending that will be required to improve its wireless network could lead Son to ditch his shares in Sprint two years after acquiring an interest in the carrier. Son himself admitted he lost confidence in Sprint after the idea of a merger with T-Mobile flopped. But now he claims he is back, personally overseeing plans for Sprint’s next generation network with U.S. based engineers every night between 10pm-2am Japan time.

Customers seem unconvinced, peppering comment sections with reactions ranging from surprise Son was willing to criticize Sprint’s network (a criticism many agreed with), to exasperation that Sprint has promised better service for years and has yet to provide it.

“You know your carrier’s service sucks when even the CEO says it sucks,” commented one reader.

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