Your contract with Sprint ends in June, but why wait, beckons the cell phone company, when you can upgrade your phone today (with a new two-year service agreement).

Two years earlier, providers wheeled and dealed upgrade-reluctant customers, particularly those considering their first smartphone, thanks to the bill shock that results when customers see a $30 mandatory data plan added to their monthly bill.  Sprint went one step further, handing 4G-capable customers Clearwire WiMAX — a technology even Russian cell phone companies can’t wait to abandon — and added a $10 premium data surcharge for the privilege.

In Sprint’s favor: their willingness to deal discounts on phone upgrades and their truly unlimited data plans. But while Sprint continues to bank on unlimited data, the bill on cheap phone upgrades may now be coming due.

The American wireless industry is increasingly taking a page from the airlines, adopting irritating fees and surcharges while curtailing the perks and rewards that used to come with customer loyalty and family plans that routinely run into the hundreds of dollars.

Equipment Upgrade Fees

Sprint, Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile all have a nasty surprise in store for customers who have not upgraded their smartphones in the last year or so: the equipment upgrade fee.  Sprint and AT&T both charge $36 per phone, Verizon Wireless now charges $30, T-Mobile $18.

Verizon customers are especially peeved because that wireless company used to reward loyal customers with a $50 credit off any new phone at contract renewal time. Today, instead of getting “New Every Two” discounts, Big Red will charge you $30 for every new phone when you renew your contract.

Verizon’s excuse is that the new fee will be used to offer customer “wireless workshops” and “online educational tools,” according to Verizon spokeswoman Brenda Rayney. The company also claims the fees will cover more sophisticated consultations with “company experts” that are trained to provide advice and guidance on today’s sophisticated smartphones. In other words, these fees are supposed to compensate Verizon’s store and kiosk employees.

For people like my cousin, upgrading to a new Sprint phone at contract renewal time is an exercise in frustration. In addition to the $149-199 subsidized equipment price, Sprint now tacks on a $36 upgrade fee (per phone).  What miffs him is that Sprint is treating new customers better than existing ones, willing to waive one-time activation fees (coincidentally the same $36) for new customers, but steadfastly refusing to credit equipment upgrade fees for existing loyal customers.

Sprint will tell you they are not alone charging upgrade fees, and they would be right. All four major national carriers now charge the fees, effectively a penalty when customers decide to upgrade their phones.

Many also find it nearly impossible to get companies like Verizon Wireless to waive the fees, even when some of their best customers ask.

“Verizon Wireless was willing to throw away my 12 year account, earning them more than $500 a month in revenue, over the upgrade fee issue,” reports Stan Dershau. “Our contract expired this month and it was time for new phones, and Verizon absolutely insisted that we pay $150 in upgrade fees for new equipment on our account, even after the $600 they’ll collect from the smartphones we intended to buy.”

Dershau found absolutely nobody willing to relent on Verizon’s upgrade fees. Even supervisors told him the company has a no-waiver policy that is strictly enforced, and they could do little more than offer a token service credit even if Dershau threatened to take his business somewhere else.

“I haven’t decided what to do yet, but I canceled my upgrade plans for now,” he reports.

Dershau was always able to get Verizon to waive earlier fees because of the monthly business he brings them, but those days are over.

“It’s a whole different attitude with them now,” Dershau says. “They just want money.”

AT&T's fine print.

Ben Popken recently wrote about his efforts to avoid Verizon’s $30 upgrade fee, with mixed results.

Verizon’s suggested solution is to sell your old phones back to the company through their trade-in program, using the money to offset the equipment upgrade fee. But unless you own an iPhone, Verizon’s trade-in offers are strictly low-ball, often under $30 on non-Apple phones. That leaves you with a slightly lower upgrade fee and the loss of your old phone, which Verizon may recycle or resell refurbished to someone else.

Popken explains he found one convoluted way around Verizon’s fees:

First, start a new line of service with the new phone you want. Then, port your old phone number to a 3rd party service, like Google Voice (here’s a guide from Lifehacker on doing so). Lastly, cancel the line with the old phone and port the old phone number back onto the new phone, thus keeping the new phone, the old number, and dodging the fee. But there’s a catch. It only works if you wait three months to port the number back. If you do it before then, Verizon’s system treats it like you’re continuing the same service, and they hit you with the $30 upgrade fee. Curses.

Popken forgets, however, that Google itself charges a $20 fee to port cell phone numbers to Google Voice, eliminating 2/3rds of your potential savings.

In fact, outside of purchasing a phone at the full, unsubsidized price from a third party, Verizon’s $30 fee will be visiting your phone bill sooner or later, if you decide to upgrade.

The Phone Subsidy: Slaying North America’s Sacred Cow Wireless Business Model

Consumers who crave the newest smartphones should thank their lucky stars they live in Canada or the United States, where the wireless industry heavily discounts the upfront cost of the phone when customers sign a service contract. But phone companies like AT&T and Verizon are not giving you a gift. In return for fronting a discount of as much as $400, companies set their monthly rates higher to recoup that subsidy over the life of your two-year contract.

That worked fine when cell phone companies only paid a few hundred dollars for basic phones. But today’s most popular smartphones can cost companies $400 each, and that upfront revenue hit has annoyed Wall Street for years. Even worse, while providers hand you a discounted phone, they’ve already paid the asking price to companies like Apple and Samsung, who book that revenue immediately and never have to worry about a customer skipping out on their contract.

Wall Street has been putting pressure on companies to do something about the expensive phone subsidies, and companies are responding. The equipment upgrade fee, increased activation fees, and rising monthly service charges are all a part of a greater plan to discourage customers from upgrading their phones and increase profits.

Wall Street analysts love every part of it, especially if companies can do away with equipment subsidies -and- maintain today’s pricing:

“Optimism has increased that we are witnessing the leading edge of a more disciplined, and more profitable, future,” Craig Moffett, a telecom analyst at Bernstein Research, wrote in a recent research note. The question now, he wrote, is how much carriers can increase their profits thanks to “increased discipline and pricing power.”

The answer could be quite a lot. A marketplace experiment in Spain is being closely watched by wireless phone companies worldwide and could be coming to Canada and the United States before your next two-year contract is up for renewal.

In March, Telefónica SA, Spain’s largest cell phone company, stopped subsidizing smartphones for new customers. Vodafone, which co-owns Verizon Wireless, quickly followed.

As a result, Spanish customers looking for an iPhone will now pay $800 to purchase the phone at full price, or they can sign up for an “installment plan” that will add $45 a month to their cell phone bill for the next 18 months. Both companies say the new policy won’t apply to existing customers, in an effort to discourage them from switching companies.

Telefónica anticipates the changes will slash as least 25% off of their spending. Instead of fronting subsidies to attract new customers, the phone company will increase subsidies for existing customers who agree to stay. Unfortunately for Telefónica, early results are not promising. More than 500,000 customers left the same month the new policy was announced.

A handful of smaller Spanish players see the move by both major companies as a competitive opportunity to win over new customers. Orange, for example, has not stopped offering subsidies and as a result Telefónica has lost potential new customers who signed with Orange instead. The “churn rate” of customers coming and going remains a concern for company executives. But so far, Telefónica considers getting rid of phone subsidies more important than the customers they have forfeit over the new policy.

“We are pretty firm on our strategy of trying to change the paradigm of the sector, [...] devoting the bulk of our efforts to our existing customers and, therefore, trying to move away from incentivizing churn of our customers either from us or from the others,” said company CEO Cesareo Alierta Izuel. “We are very firm on this new handset strategy. We need to fight to see if the trend is going to the right direction. And again, we think it is.”

The Wall Street Journal reports Telefónica’s bold plan has caught the attention of Verizon CEO Lowell McAdam, who sees it as a potential profit booster, and McAdam expects Verizon may cautiously follow the Spanish company’s lead.

“We’ll probably offer some things like that, and then we’ll see what the adoption is like,” McAdam said. “You can’t push this on customers before customers are ready for it.”

For now, some customers are not even ready for equipment upgrade fees. My cousin’s upgrade plans remain on hold for now, as are those of the Dershau family.

“I am not going to be browbeaten into paying these unjustified fees,” Dershau said. “Where does it stop?”

Ben Popken talks about trying to avoid Verizon’s $30 equipment upgrade fee.  (3 minutes)

AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson is kicking himself over his decision to allow “unlimited use” plans on AT&T’s wireless network.

Speaking at the Milken Institute’s Global Conference last Wednesday, Stephenson took the audience on a journey through AT&T’s transformation from a landline provider into a company that today sees wireless as the source of the majority of its revenue and future growth.  But the company left a lot of revenue on the table when it offered “unlimited data” for smartphone customers, particularly those using Apple’s iPhone.  It’s a mistake Stephenson wishes he never made.

“My only regret was how we introduced pricing in the beginning… thirty dollars and you get all you can eat and it’s a variable cost model,” Stephenson complained. “Every additional megabyte you use in this network, I have to invest capital. So get the pricing right. Our average revenue [per customer] has been increasing every single quarter since we started down this path.”

Stephenson admitted AT&T’s problems were created by the company itself when it embraced its transformation into a wireless power player.

Years earlier, the current CEO green-lit a new “smartphone” after a visit from Apple proposing a new device that used a touch screen to make calls, launch applications, and surf the wireless web.  It was called the iPhone.

AT&T’s first iPhone, Stephenson said, was not a major problem for AT&T and did not even launch on the company’s growing 3G network. In 2007, the Apple iPhone came pre-loaded with a selection of apps and used AT&T 2G network to move data.  Stephenson said Apple’s launch of a new iPhone in 2008 that worked on AT&T’s 3G network, along with a new App Store that allowed customers to do more with their phones, changed everything.  By 2009, AT&T’s network was overloaded with data traffic in many areas.

“[There] were volumes [of traffic] that nobody had ever anticipated and we had anticipated big volumes of growth,” Stephenson said.

In Stephenson’s view, AT&T’s solution to the traffic problem early on should have been a change to the pricing model, eliminating flat rate service at the first sign of network congestion.

“I wish we had moved quicker to change the pricing model to make sure that people that were consuming the bandwidth were paying for the bandwidth and [instead] we had a model where the high end users were being subsidized by the low end users,” he said.

Stephenson acknowledged the company has service issues in large American cities like New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, and blames them on a combination of voracious wireless data usage and spectrum shortages.  However, industry observers also note that many of AT&T’s service woes may have come from an unwillingness to invest in sufficient network upgrades as aggressively as other carriers, which have not experienced the same level of network congestion and the resulting steep declines in customer satisfaction AT&T has endured for the last three years.

But the ongoing congestion problems have not hurt AT&T’s revenue and profits.  Stephenson admitted that in 2006, AT&T earned almost nothing from wireless data and made between 30-32% margin selling voice and texting service.

“Today, we’re a $20 billion data revenue company and we’re operating at 41-42% margins,” Stephenson said.

Despite that improved revenue, AT&T says if they don’t get spectrum relief soon, they are going to keep raising prices on consumers. Stephenson said the company has been increasing prices across the board on data plans, new smartphone ownership, those upgrading phones, as well as reducing certain benefits for long-term customers. Stephenson said these actions were taken because spectrum has become a precious resource and bandwidth scarcity requires the company to tamp down on demand.  But that’s not a message he delivers to Wall Street, telling investors AT&T’s key earnings and increased revenue come from price adjustments and metering data usage.

Stephenson also fretted there is too much competition in America’s wireless marketplace.  That competition is eating up all of the available wireless spectrum, threatening to create a spectrum crisis if the federal government does not rethink spectrum allocation policies, he argued.  Stephenson believes additional industry consolidation is inevitable because of the capital costs associated with network construction and upgrades. He said he was uncertain whether AT&T will be able to participate in that consolidation after failing to win approval of its buyout of T-Mobile USA.

Stephenson believes the days of heavy investment in wired networks are over. Stephenson has systematically sought to transition AT&T away from prioritizing wired services in favor of wireless, a position he has maintained since his earliest days as AT&T’s CEO. The company’s decision to end expansion of U-verse — AT&T’s fiber-to-the-neighborhood service, and concentrate investment on wireless is part of Stephenson’s grand vision of a wireless America.  Stephenson noted the real fiber revolution isn’t provisioning fiber to the home, it’s wiring fiber to cell towers to support higher data traffic.

But that traffic doesn’t come to users free. Instead, Stephenson believes leaving the meter on guarantees lower rates of congestion because it makes customers think about what they are doing with their phones. It also brings higher profits for AT&T by charging customers for network traffic.  Stephenson believes that assures the returns Wall Street investors demand, attracting capital to front network investments.

With that in mind, Stephenson still believes AT&T can help solve the data digital divide, where poor families cannot afford to participate in the online revolution. Stephenson said it can be managed by handing the disadvantaged sub-$100 smartphones and $20 data plans, assuming they can afford those prices.

What keeps Stephenson up nights?  Worrying about business model busters that manage end-runs around AT&T’s profitable wireless services.

“Apple iMessage is a classic example,” Stephenson noted. “If you’re using iMessage, you’re not using one of our messaging services, right? That’s disruptive to our messaging revenue stream.”

Stephenson remains fearful its network upgrades will improve wireless data service enough to allow customers to switch to Skype for voice and video calling, depriving AT&T of voice revenue.

But the CEO seems less concerned than some of his predecessors that content producers are enjoying “free rides” on AT&T’s network.

“We in this industry have spent more time bemoaning the thought that Google or Facebook may use our network for free, and it just hasn’t played out that way,” Stephenson said. “I mean they do use it for free, they’re getting a bargain, and that is fine.”

“I believe what will play itself out over time, is that the demand model will change this behavior,” he said. “We’re already at a place where some companies that deliver content are coming to us and saying ‘we would like to do a deal with you where you would give us a class of service to deliver our content to your customers.’”

“The content guys that have been so loud about these issues [Net Neutrality] are now the ones coming to us saying we want these models,” Stephenson argued. “I’ve always believed that is what would play out.”

Stop the Cap! edited down Randall Stephenson’s appearance at last Wednesday’s conference.  Stephenson faces few challenges as he presents his world-view about AT&T pricing, spectrum allocation policies, network investments vs. data traffic growth, his vision for AT&T’s future, and how much customers will be forced to pay for today’s “spectrum crisis.”  (28 minutes)

A TV news crew from Salt Lake City that sent undercover reporters into an AT&T store, successfully reactivating a smartphone reported lost or stolen, returned Tuesday with cameras running looking for answers.

KTVX News found AT&T stores maintain activation policies that are exceptionally friendly to smartphone thieves, who can reactivate lost or stolen phones with no questions asked.

Stop the Cap! shared video from the station earlier this week showing AT&T employees making life difficult for victims of cell phone theft, but enthusiastically willing to collect money from new customers who received or purchased the stolen property.

A California class action lawsuit has been filed against AT&T over how it handles stolen cell phones.

According to the suit AT&T is, “forcing legitimate customers…to buy new cell phones, and buy new cell phone plans, while the criminals who stole the phone are able to simply walk into AT&T store and re-activate the devices using different, cheap, readily available SIM cards.”

KTVX originally sought to check whether AT&T had the same thief-friendly policies in place in Utah.  It turned out the answer was yes — AT&T will turn back on any phone as long as you “put money on it.”

Text from a California class action lawsuit against AT&T

“All you would have to do is pay for the plan,” said an unnamed AT&T store employee. “We’ll set up your account with your ID, and then put the new SIM card in there and put money on it.”

A day after the undercover operation, the TV station confronted the manager at the AT&T store just outside Valley Fair Mall, in West Valley City. He refused to answer questions.

“You can’t tell us anything about whether you know employees are doing that here?” asked reporter Brian Carlson.

“I’m not going to give you any comment on that,” he said.

The store manager referred questions to a regional AT&T representative, but the station could only reach his voicemail.

AT&T’s reactivation policies are not shared by Verizon Wireless, which claims it will not reactivate a phone reported lost or stolen on its network for any reason, except if the request comes from the original phone owner.  AT&T’s policies, according to the lawsuit, help fuel cell phone theft by making it easy for thieves to sell stolen equipment to buyers confident they can reactivate and use the equipment immediately after purchase.

AT&T says they’re working on a new plan with the Federal Communications Commission and other cell phone providers to create a centralized database of stolen phones that would keep them from being activated by any wireless carrier.  That plan could be in place by the end of this year.

ABC4 reporters return, with cameras running, to the same AT&T store that a day earlier helpfully reactivated a phone that could have been lost or stolen, no questions asked.  (2 minutes)

Sprint, perennially America’s #3 wireless phone company, faces some of its biggest challenges not from super-sized Verizon Wireless or AT&T, but from Wall Street over the company’s upgrade investments and environmental policies.

“I still get crucified for deciding to carry the Apple iPhone because the investment is significant and the payoffs are long term,” CEO Dan Hesse told attendees at a conference sponsored by Fortune magazine. “I deal with that quite a bit.”

Hesse’s vision of an upgraded 4G LTE network for Sprint Nextel comes at a cost: technology upgrades and investing profits back into the business.  Hesse also wants to be sure the company maintains environmental sustainability, with attention to everything from renewable energy sources to socially-responsible recycling of retired cell phones.

Wall Street to Hesse: Don't Get Comfortable

In response, Wall Street has been demanding Hesse’s hide.  One investment firm even predicted the imminent demise of the wireless phone company.

The iPhone, the smartphone wireless carriers cannot afford to be without (just ask T-Mobile, which continues to bleed contract customers), has posed a major financial challenge for Sprint Nextel.  Apple’s wildly popular phone commands a high wholesale price and purchasing commitments that make investors’ eyes bleed.

In October, Sprint committed to purchase 30.5 million iPhones from Apple for $20 billion.  That threatens to drain cash on-hand to cover the huge subsidies new iPhone buyers get on their phone purchase. The company will gradually earn that subsidy back over the length of the traditional two year service contract, but many on Wall Street are upset Sprint committed to an order of that size.  One Wall Street firm — Sanford C. Bernstein — downgraded the company’s stock to “underperform,” and one analyst at the company — Craig Moffett — even predicted Sprint’s bankruptcy.

Sprint’s plan to spend up to $5 billion on its forthcoming LTE 4G network won Hesse no favors in New York’s financial district either.  Sprint’s Network Vision plan will allow the company to keep up with AT&T and Verizon’s aggressive 4G rollouts, but after chief financial officer Joe Euteneuer laid out the associated financial plan to pay for it, calls for Hesse’s head resumed.

“There is a disconnect with Wall Street because if you’re building a brand, it does take a long time,” he said. “It’s hard to quantify.”

Wall Street doesn’t think much about investing in environmental initiatives either.  Hesse believes corporate environmental responsibility will pay off over the long term, ultimately reducing some of the company’s expenses.  But spending money short term to save money long term leaves investors cold.

“A lot of these environmental investments don’t hit that payoff period,” Hesse said. “The Street likes the expense savings, but the environmental benefits go right over their heads.”

CEO Dan Hesse may win a temporary reprieve as Sprint released better-than-expected results today for the latest quarter. Average revenue per user grew 6.9% and Sprint is hanging on to many of its former Nextel customers as the company decommissions that network, reports CNBC’s David Faber.  (2 minutes)

Found more new customers than AT&T

If you are among the handful of people with an Android phone or tablet running Android v.4 (also known as ‘Ice Cream Sandwich’), Time Warner Cable’s latest version of its TWC TV for Android app introduces live streaming video.

Available as of 3pm ET this afternoon from the Google Play store, TWC TV for Android finally brings streaming video to an app that used to only allow Android owners to browse an online program guide and remotely manage their DVR boxes.  Time Warner Cable originally introduced its TV Everywhere streamed video service on Apple’s iPad.

But the company’s decision to limit streamed video only to the latest Android devices running Ice Cream Sandwich (ICS) is a major disappointment and will leave a lot of Android owners with a hobbled app.

“It’s currently the only version of the Android OS that allows us the security and stability necessary to distribute video over our private network,” claims Time Warner Cable’s Jeff Simmermon. “But it’s up to the device manufacturer and the sometimes the data carrier when or if ICS will be deployed to a particular device.”

Simmermon suggested the iOS platform developed by Apple was easier to contend with because one company developed the operating system and the devices on which it operates.

If you upgrade to the latest version of TWC TV for Android running on a non-ICS phone, a notification warns that live streamed video remains unavailable to you, leaving the app about as useful as its earlier version, which is to say not very.  Simmermon also warns the upgrade is not available to “rooted” devices.

Smartphones purchased within the last year are likely to receive eventual upgrades to ICS, although exactly when depends on your wireless carrier.  Older phones may or may not receive upgrades.  As a general rule, the older the device, the less likely the manufacturer will be willing to keep upgrading it.

Phillip "The Mayans Never Met AT&T" Dampier

AT&T has used the specter of a nationwide wireless bandwidth crisis to pressure Washington to adopt its agenda for additional mobile spectrum.  But talk of a looming “data tsunami” has done nothing to stop AT&T from heavily marketing their most data-hungry devices — smartphones and tablets to customers.

In fact, the “broadband shortage business” has become enormously profitable for the former Ma Bell.

Switch to a Smartphone

Wireless carriers like AT&T aggressively market smartphones because they drive the highest average monthly revenue earned from customers.  So far, the marketing push has been an unparalleled success.  PricewaterhouseCoopers reported smartphones accounted for 48% of all wireless phone sales in 2011, up from 30% in 2010.  More than half of customers upgrading their old phones chose smartphones to replace them — an enormous increase over just 36% of upgrades in 2010.  Because smartphones are designed for an online experience, most companies mandate customers subscribe to a data plan, often adding $30 or more per phone, per month to a wireless phone bill.

AT&T’s 4th quarter results told the story, and it was all smiles.  AT&T celebrated customer enthusiasm for smartphones and the data they consume with no worries about “data tsunamis” or “bandwidth crises”:

• In 2011, AT&T’s growth engines — wireless, wireline data and managed services — represented 76 percent of total revenues and grew 7.5 percent versus 2010, led in the fourth quarter by:
  • 10.0 percent growth in wireless revenues
  • 19.4 percent growth in wireless data revenues, up $956 million versus the year-earlier quarter
• 9.4 million smartphone sales, best-ever quarter and 50 percent more than previous quarterly record and nearly double 3Q11 sales; 82 percent of postpaid sales were smartphones
• Best-ever quarter for Android and Apple smartphones, including 7.6 million iPhone activations

Double-Digit Growth for Wireless Revenues. Total wireless revenues, which include equipment sales, were up 10.0 percent year over year to $16.7 billion. Wireless service revenues increased 4.0 percent, to $14.3 billion, in the fourth quarter.

Wireless Data Revenues Increase 19.4 Percent. Wireless data revenues — driven by Internet access, access to applications, messaging and related services — increased by $956 million, or 19.4 percent, from the year-earlier quarter to $5.9 billion. AT&T’s postpaid wireless subscribers on monthly data plans increased by 16.4 percent over the past year. The number of subscribers on tiered data plans also continues to increase. About 22 million, or 56 percent, of all smartphone subscribers are on tiered data plans, and about 70 percent have chosen the higher-tier plans.

Wireless Margins Reflect Record Sales. Fourth-quarter wireless margins reflect record-setting smartphone sales and customer upgrade levels. This was offset in part by improved operating efficiencies and further revenue gains from the company’s growing base of high-quality smartphone subscribers.

Forcing Customers to Upgrade… Or Else

AT&T's 2G Exit Strategy Started in 2009 (Courtesy: Blackberry News)

Back in 2009, AT&T decided it was inventory clearance time, released a memo entitled “2G Exit Strategy,” and slashed prices on 2G “feature” or “messaging phones” to attract customers looking for a bargain.  A few years later, the company is now sending letters to some of them strongly recommending they upgrade to a new, potentially more expensive phone.  If they don’t, AT&T writes, “your current, older-model 2G phone might not be able to make or receive calls and you may experience degradation of your wireless service in certain areas.”

AT&T hopes many customers will adopt smartphones, because the plans that accompany them are far more expensive than the 2G “messaging” plans they replace. AT&T wants to repurpose 1900MHz 2G spectrum for other services, but sometimes customers are left holding the bag if they don’t want the designated replacement phone(s) AT&T is willing to provide.

In Grand Valley, Col. last fall, AT&T created lines outside its stores as customers were compelled to upgrade phones and service plans to continue reliable AT&T service:

AT&T isn’t actually discontinuing the 2G network — it is moving 2G service to less-favorable spectrum it owns in order to make room for improved 3G coverage.  That might work fine in areas less expansive and rugged than western Colorado, but in the Grand Valley, it means many customers will find they no longer have data service at all.

The ongoing tower upgrades have also disrupted cell service generally, and when customers arrive at AT&T’s stores to complain, the employees on hand attempt to upsell them more expensive phones to “fix” the problem.

“There is significant pressure on carriers to migrate to the most efficient networks while needing to address the issue of spectrum scarcity,” explains PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Dan Hays. “We are beginning to see carriers shut off legacy networks and force customers to migrate to new technologies.”

Internet Overcharging for Profit Without Raising Company Costs

AT&T has no worries about data tsunamis and "exafloods" when app makers or consumers are willing to pay more.

With customers seeking to get the most out of expensive wireless data plans, data usage naturally goes up. But so do prices, meaning the “data tsunami” carriers warn about is not bad for their bottom line at all.

In 2011, consumer research group Validas found average data consumption was up 34.7% for all users, from 448.8MB in January to 604.8MB by December.  AT&T responded with a price increase and an allowance boost that will benefit only a tiny minority of customers.  The most popular data plans now cost $5 a month more: $30 for 3 gigabytes, up from $25 for 2GB and $50 for 5GB, up from $45 for 4GB.  But Validas found only 5% of wireless customers use more than 2GB of data per month, with only 2.7% using more than 3GB.

That translates into higher AT&T bills for the 97% of customers who don’t come close to using even 2GB a month.  Although the price hike delivers no tangible benefit to the overwhelming majority of customers, it does deliver an extra $5 a month from their bank account to AT&T’s.

The “Anyone Pays But Us” Model for “Heavy Traffic”

With online video “clogging” the wireless airwaves, companies like AT&T should be interested in offloading as much video to wired or Wi-Fi service. But late last month, the company suggested a way customers could bypass its stringent data caps by allowing content companies to pay for the wireless traffic their customers generate.

“A feature that we’re hoping to have out sometime next year is the equivalent of 800 numbers that would say, if you take this app, this app will come without any network usage,” said John Donovan, who oversees AT&T’s network and technology. “What they’re saying is, why don’t we go create new revenue streams that don’t exist today and find a way to split them … “It’d be like freight included.”

Only wasn’t the railroad already overburdened with traffic, threatened with a nationwide slowdown?  If one is willing to flash enough money, it’s remarkable how quickly the tidal wave of wireless congestion and despair can be pushed back out to sea.  Just don’t tell Washington lawmakers.  This is a crisis of epic proportions after all.

Derek Kerton, principal analyst at Kerton Group, talks about increased demand for data and the impact on wireless carriers. Kerton compares it to today’s gasoline prices. Demand=higher prices.  Wall Street folks like Kerton thinks more spectrum isn’t the total answer.  Smaller cell sites and more Wi-Fi might be.  Otherwise, prepare for bill shock.  (4 minutes)

The new 4G LTE-equipped Apple iPad you picked up late last week may be burning a hole in your wallet more than you think.  Across the country, consumers are reporting shock and surprise when they discover the new, faster mobile broadband-equipped tablet is capable of blowing through AT&T and Verizon Wireless’ monthly usage caps in a matter of hours.

The culprits: online video and giant-sized app downloads.

Online video on a usage-limited mobile broadband plan simply does not last long on Apple’s newest sensation.  A Wall Street Journal article found one new iPad owner discouraged after a two hour basketball game completely obliterated his 3GB usage allowance provided by AT&T.  With $10/GB overlimit fees just around the corner, AT&T is set to earn enormous data fees from customers who use their iPads to stream video.

The Wall Street Journal reports the newest iPad has been out for less than a week and buyers are already burning through their monthly data allowances on usage capped 4G mobile plans.  (3 minutes)

USA Today tech columnist Edward Baig also blew through his allowance in less than one day:

Less than 24 hours after purchasing the Verizon Wireless version of the iPad + 4G — and choosing a $30, 2GB monthly data plan from Verizon — I was shocked by the notification on my iPad’s screen: “There is no data remaining on your current plan.”

My remaining options for the month included changing to a $50 5GB data plan or an $80 10GB plan. (AT&T offers a 250MB plan for $14.99; 3GB for $30; and 5GB for $50.)

[...] In my case, I wasn’t watching video. What nailed me, I think, is that I was wirelessly downloading a number of the apps that I had already purchased for my older iPad onto the latest model. Those apps were made available through Apple’s iCloud.

To help avoid just this situation, the new iPad has a 50MB per app download limit on 4G. Anything over that, and you’re directed to Wi-Fi. (The over-the-air download limit on 3G-capable iPads was 20MB.) But that’s a per-app limit, and all those smaller-sized apps I was moving to the new iPad collectively added up.

Storing anything on Apple’s iCloud service or other backup storage sites like Dropbox can prove costly when relying on 4G service from AT&T and Verizon.  That’s on top of Apple’s premium price for 4G-equipped iPads, which start at $629 (comparable Wi-Fi only models are priced at $499 and above).  As a result, consumers are shutting off the wireless mobile feature they paid $130 extra to receive.

“All the advantages of the iPad device are completely neutralized by [AT&T's] two gigabyte data limit,” Steve Wells told the Journal.

Some customers are upgrading their mobile data plans to 5GB for $50 a month, offered by both AT&T and Verizon.  Others are learning to stick to Wi-Fi.  According to a study conducted by the consulting firm Chetan Sharma, nearly 90% of tablets bought in the United States are Wi-Fi only models.  The added cost for mobile-equipped tablets and the expensive data plans that accompany them are largely responsible.

Consumer Advice:

1. You can still leverage 4G mobile broadband speeds on a cheaper Wi-Fi-only equipped iPad if your smartphone supports the “mobile hotspot” feature. When activated, your phone becomes a Wi-Fi hotspot your iPad can connect to for wireless data. If you have an unlimited mobile hotspot plan from Verizon Wireless (now difficult to obtain unless you are grandfathered on an unlimited data plan), you are not subject to Verizon’s usage limits for mobile devices.
2. Rely as much as possible on Wi-Fi, especially for file downloads or streamed content. Since the iPad can seamlessly switch between Wi-Fi and expensive mobile data service, protect yourself by shutting off Cellular Data within the settings menu when you don’t absolutely need to use it.
3. Turn off LTE service when not needed. 4G consumes battery life faster and its speeds encourage the kind of increased usage that can exhaust your allowance.
4. Monitor how much data you’ve used from the settings menu. Web browsing and e-mail will not consume a lot.  Online video and giant app downloads will.

[Thanks to our regular readers Scott and Earl for sending in several stories reporting on this.]

Apple iPad in the News:

Joe Brown, editor-in-chief at Gizmodo.com, talks about Apple Inc.’s new iPad, the outlook for Amazon.com Inc.’s Kindle Fire and the tablet market. Brown speaks with Jon Erlichman on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg West.” (6 minutes)

Shelly Palmer talks about the record-breaking sales numbers of the new Apple iPad. He discusses what is great and not so great about the new tablet on New York’s WNYW-TV.  (4 minutes)

Paul Reynolds, electronics editor for Consumer Reports, talks about the magazine’s temperature test of Apple Inc.’s new iPad. The newest iPad runs “significantly hotter” than the earlier model when conducting processor-intensive tasks such as playing graphics-heavy games, Consumer Reports said on its website.  (9 minutes)

It’s the hottest item in the tech world – literally. WFXT in Boston also takes a look at how other tablet manufacturers are doing in competition with Apple.  (4 minutes)

Not quite.

Virgin Mobile founder Richard Branson is trying to convince customers they should sign up with a phone company that only sells you the services you need, but if “unlimited data” is one of them, look somewhere else.

Starting Friday, Virgin Mobile will quietly begin to throttle “heavy users” who reach 2.5GB of usage on their “unlimited use” data plans.  For the remainder of the billing cycle, Virgin will reduce mobile broadband speeds to just 256kbps — comparable to a significantly congested 3G connection.

It’s a long fall from Virgin Mobile’s original unlimited data offer which the company briefly attempted in the summer of 2010.

Entirely reliant on Sprint’s mobile network (and now operates as the prepaid division of Sprint), Virgin Mobile couldn’t handle the demand and quickly threatened to slow down the connections of their heaviest users.

The carrier’s decision to set a specific limit for its speed throttle was originally intended to take effect last October, but was delayed until March 23, 2012.

Virgin Mobile’s delayed implementation of its speed throttle coincides with this imaging “refresh” of the “New Virgin Mobile” starring a timeless Richard Branson. (1 minute)

Virgin Mobile explains its reasons:

This change comes about because of the enormous data usage driven by our new more sophisticated smartphones, and the more extensive uses customers are finding for these devices.  We want to be able to serve our Beyond Talk customers who use these unlimited plans for their data-centric daily activity, primarily for regular access to email, the Internet, and social networking sites. Our goal is to ensure our products perform at the best possible level and that we have the best possible experience for all subscribers.  These control options are similar to those other carriers have in place ? and that Virgin Mobile maintains for its Broadband2Go product as well.

These plans are still unlimited.  There is no cap or limit on how much you can consume in any given month.  In order to ensure optimal network performance and a good customer experience for all subscribers, we are moving forward in establishing some parameters.

Most Beyond Talk customers will not experience a change in the performance of their Virgin Mobile service or notice any difference.  If you use this service for typical email, internet surfing and downloading, your throughput speeds should not be noticeably impacted.  For Beyond Talk subscribers who are using more than 2.5GB during a monthly plan cycle, limits to throughput speeds for the remainder of their monthly plan cycle will enable us to preserve overall network performance and customer experience.

The company’s redefinition of the word “unlimited” in nothing new in the world of mobile data.  T-Mobile, AT&T, and Cricket all throttle their customers when they exceed a certain level of usage, yet some still market “unlimited use” plans that many customers don’t realize are limited in usefulness when arbitrary allowances are exceeded.

Concerns for “optimal network performance” and “a good experience for all” disappear when you pull your wallet out. Virgin Mobile will reset your usage allowance to zero if you agree to pay for a new month of service the moment they’ve throttled your service.  That will get you another 2.5GB of usage, whether it preserves overall network performance or not.

Watch Virgin Group’s Richard Branson explain why Virgin Mobile wants to change the image consumers have about their mobile phone company.  A fine print disclosure that “unlimited” mobile data really isn’t may not change things for the better.  (2 minutes)

Not all mobile customers are treated equally.

That is the conclusion of a new piece in MIT’s Technology Review, which found wireless companies carefully data mine their customers in an effort to keep their best (and most profitable) customers happy, while leaving those who pay substantially less or enjoy an unlimited data plan on hold.

The concept of “big data” — the practice of collecting and analyzing customer usage, payments, and services, has become part of today’s sophisticated data analysis used by wireless companies to target their highest level of service to their best customers.

In practice this means big spenders might cut ahead of others in customer service call queues, be given priority on wireless carriers’ networks, and be pampered with discounts, service credits, and other special offers when service goes awry.

Carriers merge data about network problems—such as how many dropped calls a consumer experienced—with unstructured data such as the transcripts of complaints to customer-service representatives, deciphered by voice-recognition software and searched for angry keywords.

For customers enrolled in expensive “tiered” data plans, the carriers are vigilant to respond with refunds or discounts on re-enrollments; they tend not to be so generous to customers with resource-guzzling unlimited data plans.

The article did not name any specific carriers, but says selective customer-service treatment is “common industry practice in the United States.”

In Europe, disparate treatment goes even further.  When congestion starts slowing down a provider’s data network, some will boot customers with unlimited data plans onto inferior networks which treat the interlopers as second-class citizens, subject to reduced priority and even throttled speeds in some instances.

It is all designed to maximize profits by keeping the most profitable customers happy, even if lesser customers make due with less.

Data mining opens the door to even bigger profits in the days ahead, especially with contextual and location-based advertising that leverages your location with retailers who believe you can be enticed to stop in their stores in return for a discount offer or coupon sent to your smartphone.

“We’re at the beginning of an era in big-data analytics,” says Antonio Rodriguez, a venture capitalist who works at Matrix Partners in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “If you think about the treasure trove of data they have—it’s question of how they tow the privacy line between what they have access to and what they do with it.”

Cable "Digital Phone" Subscriber Numbers (Source: SNL Kagan)

Rick Munarriz has a bone to pick with Comcast after discovering his cable television and broadband service was out of commission.  It was the fourth prolonged outage in four weeks.  But the Comcast customer of more than a dozen years was surprised when he called the cable company and they immediately tried to sell him Comcast’s “digital phone” service:

[...] An otherwise cordial representative tells me that he’s looking into my account. I could save some serious money if I switch my landline to Comcast’s XFINITY Voice offering.

“If I did that, how would I be reporting this outage?” I asked.

“Don’t you have a smartphone?” he responds, not realizing that he has just killed his own sales pitch.

Who needs a landline when you have a wireless phone? Who needs a Comcast triple play — especially when I’m already dealing with two outs?

Although not losing customers as fast as traditional landline phone companies, cable-delivered phone service is no longer growing as fast as it once did.  Most companies picking up “digital phone” customers are winning them these days from product bundling, with aggressively priced triple-play packages of phone, Internet, and cable service.  Many of these packages include the phone line for less than $10 a month more than a double-play package of Internet and cable-TV.

SNL Kagan collects statistics from cable operators who pitch phone service and documents the highest growth in cable-provided phone service came during 2004-2009.  Now that growth has slowed.  Customers who were willing cut their landline phone off in favor of a cell phone don’t need wired phone service from the cable company either.

It seems Comcast is willing to admit the same, even when pitching its own phone product.