SubscribeOne of the nation’s top authorities on global Internet traffic growth says his latest data show no reason to fear network capacity shortages, as traffic growth may even be slightly decelerating.
An article published Tuesday in Telephony Online carries new evidence that the so-called “bandwidth crisis” may be based more on fear than reality.
Professor Andrew Odlyzko, director of the University of Minnesota’s Interdisciplinary Digital Technology Center, released a report last week charting the growth in Internet traffic. Odlyzko concluded that growth continues at predicted levels between 50-60% per year, which is unchanged for at least the past three years.
Odlyzko introduced his research remarking that the “threatened deluge that was supposed to clog the Internet” still has not made any appearance. In fact, he said, bandwidth rates may in fact be trending downwards.
Proponents of the Network Bandwidth Congestion Crisis theory usually argue that the apocalyptic end of the Internet as we know it will occur either from capacity shortages on the Internet backbone, or because of congestion at the local “last mile” level, between the broadband provider and your home.
But the raw data suggests neither is an impending threat, particularly assuming that broadband providers do not attempt to shortchange stable investment in their networks to meet the demands of their growing customer base.
Broadband providers could engineer a self-fulfilling prophecy of a bandwidth crisis if they reduce their investment in their networks, preferring to take additional profits from the broadband business while cutting costs in order to prop up shareholder return or profitability. But such moves, which are often uncovered by carefully reviewing required public filings made for shareholder review, would quickly expose the fallacy of the position taken by several bandwidth providers that usage caps are necessary to reduce demand, which could have been met by responsible company practices to maintain and expand their networks to the same historic degree they have done for the last several years.
Other stories of interest:
- NBC Olympics: On the Go… Somewhere Else
- Revisited: Laurel Lane Is The Central Front Of The War On Bandwidth Hogs
- “Internet Evangelist” Opposes Volume Caps, Limits; “They’re Not Very Useful”
- FCC Commissioner Regurgitates Industry Talking Points On Demand
- Frontier Reveals Plans of Usage Cap Implementation to Employees; Leaves Customers In The Dark Until It’s A Done Deal
